Environmental Polling Roundup – March 8, 2024
HEADLINES
Climate Power – Battleground voters shift decisively toward President Biden when his climate and clean energy record is contrasted with Trump’s [Deck]
Data for Progress – Climate and the environment rank among President Biden’s largest issue advantages over Trump [Release, Crosstabs]
Navigator – Voters continue to support the Inflation Reduction Act by a wide margin after learning about it [Release, Deck]
American Lung Association – Voters overwhelmingly support stronger EPA standards for particle pollution and heavy-duty vehicle emissions [Particle Pollution Release, Particle Pollution Memo, Vehicle Release, Vehicle Memo]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Climate change is one of President Biden’s biggest advantages over Trump, but it isn’t baked in. Data for Progress finds that voters trust President Biden by a wider margin over Trump on climate change and the environment than on nearly any other issue. Battleground polling by Climate Power, meanwhile, shows that voters don’t fully appreciate the gulf between the two candidates’ approaches to environmental issues. They find that messaging that contrasts the two candidates on climate change and clean energy produces sizable shifts toward Biden in the race for president – particularly among younger voters, independent voters, and those who either didn’t vote or voted for third-party candidates in 2020.
- Arguments focused on public health can effectively counter opposition messaging about new EPA pollution standards. As the EPA’s new soot standards come under attack from industry groups and the politicians that do their bidding, the American Lung Association finds that a focus on the health benefits of the new standards can effectively rebut opposition fear mongering about costs and jobs. In a head-to-head test, voters are much more likely to side with a positive argument about the health benefits of the new standards – including preventing thousands of premature deaths and over one million asthma attacks per year – than an opposition argument claiming that the standards will drive up costs and kill jobs.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change] 76% of voters support protecting the environment and addressing climate change, including 47% who “strongly” support it [Data for Progress]
- [Clean Energy] 75% of voters support investing in clean energy technologies, including 43% who “strongly” support it [Data for Progress]
- [Inflation Reduction Act] Voters support the Inflation Reduction Act by a nearly three-to-one margin (68% support / 24% oppose) after reading a brief, one-sentence description of it [Navigator]
- [Particle Pollution/Soot] 78% of voters support the EPA setting stricter limits on fine particles, also called “soot,” that power plants, oil refineries, and other industrial facilities can release [American Lung Association]
- [EPA Pollution Standards] 82% of voters support the EPA setting stricter limits on mercury and other toxic air emissions from power plants [American Lung Association]
- [EPA Pollution Standards] 78% of voters support the EPA setting stricter limits on smog from power plants, oil refineries, and other industrial facilities [American Lung Association]
- [EPA Pollution Standards] 76% of voters support the EPA setting stricter limits on carbon emissions from new and existing power plants [American Lung Association]
- [Vehicle Emissions] 72% of voters support the EPA setting stricter limits on carbon emissions from heavy-duty vehicles such as tractor trailers, buses, and delivery vans [American Lung Association]
- [Vehicle Emissions] 60% of voters support the EPA setting stricter limits on emissions from light-duty vehicles like cars and trucks [American Lung Association]
FULL ROUNDUP
Climate Power – Battleground voters shift decisively toward President Biden when his climate and clean energy record is contrasted with Trump’s [Deck]
In a survey of likely voters across nine key battleground states, Climate Power thoroughly assessed voters’ impressions and reactions to messaging about the contrast between Biden and Trump on climate change.
Their primary findings are summed up in these five “Key Takeaways” from the deck linked above:
“1.) It is a mistake to assume that voters remember Trump’s record and how destructive it was. They must be reminded that he was a consistent climate denier, opposed clean energy, and was the worst environmental president in history.
2.) Contrast is key. Biden’s accomplishments are not widely known and voters give him little credit for his own wins. Biden’s standing improves significantly when contrasted with Trump’s record as president.
3.) Biden’s climate and clean energy achievements are compelling proof points that he ‘gets things done.’ Biden’s clean energy and climate wins translate to new jobs (stronger economy), lowered costs (energy bills, access to renewables), and cleaner air and water (climate action).
4.) Focusing on climate and clean energy moves the vote in Biden’s favor. Biden is currently underperforming with young voters – but after receiving contrast messages of his accomplishments against Trump’s destructive records, young voters (18-34) move toward Biden by +10pp.
5.) It is essential to show the harms of Trump’s pro-drilling approach, but we need to also speak to voters’ desire for lower costs and energy independence (and never cede this field to Trump).”
The deck also provides four “Communication Imperatives” about the contrast between Biden and Trump on climate change and clean energy.
“1.) Tell the story of Biden’s historic accomplishments on clean energy and climate action by contrasting them with Trump’s disastrous record as president.
2.) Connect Trump’s support of price-gouging Big Oil companies with the increased costs Americans pay for energy, health care, and climate disasters. Use his alliances with Big Oil to show how his policies hurt everyday people.
3.) Educate voters about Trump’s climate denialism and make his dangerous record real by reminding them of the health, economic, and extreme weather consequences they have experienced.
4.) Include climate in the list of base issues and rights that Trump denies and endangers like reproductive rights, voting rights, and election denialism – make the broader case against Trump’s extremism and his disconnect with reality.”
The survey demonstrates that climate-focused messaging can be highly impactful in the race for president: while the poll sample starts off supporting Trump over Biden by a five-point margin (44% Biden / 49% Trump), they end up supporting Biden by a five-point margin (49% Biden / 44% Trump) after seeing messaging that contrasts the two candidates’ stances and actions on climate change.
Climate-focused messaging produces particularly large shifts in vote choice among young voters aged 18-29, independents, and those who either didn’t vote or voted for a third-party candidate in 2020.
Data for Progress – Climate and the environment rank among President Biden’s largest issue advantages over Trump [Release, Crosstabs]
This new national data from Data for Progress helps to explain why climate-focused messaging can provide a major boost to Biden: while voters may not know much about Biden and Trump’s contrasting records on climate change and the environment, they’re predisposed to trust Biden more on these issues.
Data for Progress asked voters which candidate they trusted more to handle 15 different issue areas. Out of these 15 issues, climate and the environment (BIden +14, 49%-35%) and LGBTQ+ issues (Biden +16, 47%-31%) are the only two issue areas where Biden holds a double-digit advantage over Trump.
Meanwhile, voters are most inclined to trust Trump over Biden on immigration (Trump +14, 52%-38%), inflation (Trump +11, 50%-39%), and jobs and the economy (Trump +11, 51%-40%).
Ahead of the State of the Union, the poll also assessed both how much voters support various components of President Biden’s agenda and how much they’ve heard him talk about each component.
Overall, they find that climate and clean energy rank relatively high on the list of priorities that voters associate with Biden: most say that they’ve heard at least “a little” from Biden about protecting the environment and addressing climate change (74%) and about investing in clean energy technologies (73%).
However, few say that they’ve heard “a lot” from Biden about either investing in clean energy (33%) or protecting the environment and addressing climate change (31%).
Meanwhile, voters continue to overwhelmingly support both of these priorities:
- 76% support protecting the environment and addressing climate change, including 47% who “strongly” support it
- 75% support investing in clean energy technologies, including 43% who “strongly” support it
Navigator – Voters continue to support the Inflation Reduction Act by a wide margin after learning about it [Release, Deck]
Consistent with a large body of polling over the past couple of years, Navigator finds that voters support the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by an overwhelming margin when they hear basic information about it. The poll finds a nearly three-to-one margin of support for the IRA (68% support / 24% oppose) based on the following description:
“As you may know, Biden and Democrats’ legislation that was passed by Congress is called the Inflation Reduction Act, which will give Medicare the power to negotiate lower drug prices, bring down health insurance premiums, and invest in clean energy like wind and solar power.”
And while voters consistently say that they support the IRA, it would be a mistake to assume that they know much about it: polling has consistently found that awareness of the law lags far behind support for it. Further, an analysis by Yale and George Mason found that the very groups who are most inclined to support the IRA if they know about it – including younger Americans, Black Americans, and lower-income Americans – have been hearing the least about it.
American Lung Association – Voters overwhelmingly support stronger EPA standards for particle pollution and heavy-duty vehicle emissions [Particle Pollution Release, Particle Pollution Memo, Vehicle Release, Vehicle Memo]
Polling voters nationwide, the American Lung Association finds widespread support for the EPA’s new particle pollution/soot standards as well as for tougher standards on emissions from vehicles.
For particle pollution, the American Lung Association finds an overwhelming 65-point margin of support for the EPA’s new standards (78% support / 13% oppose) based on the following description:
“The Environmental Protection Agency is updating air pollution standards by
placing stricter limits on the amount of fine particles, also called ‘soot,’ that power
plants, oil refineries, and other industrial facilities can release.”
And as the new particle pollution standards come under attack from industry groups and the politicians that they bankroll, the poll provides several indicators that clean air advocates can keep the public on their side.
Support for the new particle pollution standards is bipartisan, with large margins of support among Democrats (90% support / 4% oppose), independents (67% support / 16% oppose), and even self-described “very conservative” Republicans (61% support / 25% oppose).
Voters aren’t inclined to believe opposition arguments that the new particle pollution standards will kill jobs or raise costs, as only 28% expect the new standards to have a negative impact on the economy and just 31% expect that they will have a negative impact on the cost of living.
Support for new particle pollution standards remains strong after a simulated debate on the topic, as voters end up supporting the new standards by a 43-point margin (68% support / 25% oppose) after reading arguments for and against the new standards.
The poll also illustrates how advocates can effectively rebut opposition messaging about costs and jobs by focusing on the health benefits of the new pollution standards.
In a head-to-head test, voters are far more likely to side with a positive argument about the health impacts of the new standards (73%) than an opposition argument about economic harms (27%):
- “These stricter limits on fine particles, also called ‘soot,’ are good because they will prevent thousands of premature deaths and over 1 million asthma attacks every year.” (73% agree more with this statement)
- “These stricter limits on fine particles, also called ‘soot,’ are bad because they will drive up energy prices and kill American jobs.” (27% agree more with this statement)
In the face of this opposition messaging about economic harms, voters are also receptive to an argument that the new standards will encourage innovation and create jobs. By a 68%-32% margin, voters side more with a statement that the standards will have a positive economic impact than an opposition statement about costs and jobs:
- “These stricter limits on the fine particles called ‘soot’ will encourage innovation and the development of new technologies, boosting the American economy and creating American jobs.” (68% agree more with this statement)
- “These stricter limits on the fine particles called ‘soot’ are unnecessary and burdensome regulations that will drive up costs for American businesses and kill American jobs” (32% agree more with this statement)
The poll additionally finds overwhelming support for several other stronger emissions standards that the EPA is considering, including:
- Stricter limits on mercury and other toxic air emissions from power plants (82% support / 10% oppose)
- Stricter limits on smog from power plants, oil refineries, and other industrial facilities (78% support / 15% oppose)
- Stricter limits on carbon emissions from new and existing power plants (76% support / 16% oppose)
When it comes to vehicle emissions standards, the American Lung Association finds that voters overwhelmingly support the EPA setting stricter limits on carbon emissions from heavy-duty vehicles such as tractor trailers, buses, and delivery vans (72% support / 20% oppose).
As with the soot standards, the poll finds that support for stronger heavy-duty vehicle emissions standards is bipartisan and holds up in the face of negative messaging. Majorities of Democrats (90%), independents (67%), and Republicans (53%) support stronger emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles, and voters continue to support these standards by a wide margin (67% support / 26% oppose) after being exposed to a back-and-forth debate on the topic.
The poll also demonstrates that, as with the soot standards, advocates can effectively counter negative messaging about vehicle emissions standards by focusing on health benefits.
By a nearly two-to-one margin, voters side more with a positive argument about the new heavy-duty vehicle standards’ benefits for pollution and public health (66%) than a negative argument about economic harms (34%):
- “We need stricter limits on pollution from heavy-duty vehicles because these standards would prevent 1.8 billion metric tons of carbon pollution and provide billions of dollars in health benefits by preventing premature deaths and sick days.” (66% agree more with this statement)
- “We can’t afford new regulations on heavy-duty vehicles because they will drive up the price of vehicles and costs for American businesses and kill American jobs.” (34% agree more with this statement)
Voters are also much more likely to side with a positive argument about innovation and job creation (69%) over a negative argument about costs and jobs (31%):
- “These stricter limits on pollution from heavy-duty vehicles will encourage innovation and the development of new technologies, boosting the American economy and creating American jobs.” (69% agree more with this statement)
- “These stricter limits on emissions from heavy-duty vehicles are unnecessary and burdensome regulations that will drive up costs for American businesses and kill American jobs.” (31% agree more with this statement)
The American Lung Association further finds majority support for other actions that the EPA is considering to reduce pollution from vehicles, including:
- Stricter limits on emissions from light-duty vehicles like cars and trucks (60% support / 30% oppose)
- Granting waivers to allow California to implement its own, stronger limits on emissions from vehicles (56% support / 25% oppose)
Related Resources
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