Environmental Polling Roundup – June 9, 2023
HEADLINES
Yale + GMU – Clear majorities continue to say that global warming is happening, caused by humans, and affecting the weather; most Americans reject climate fatalism and say that there is still time to act (Website, Full Report)
Climate Nexus + Yale + GMU – Voters support transitioning the cargo shipping industry to zero carbon emissions by 2040 (Release, Topline)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Extreme heat is the single most salient way to demonstrate that climate change is here and hurting people today. Yale and George Mason find that extreme heat is the environmental problem that people worry most about in their local area, and the environmental problem that people are most likely to believe is related to global warming. Polling has long shown that concerns about climate change and extreme heat naturally spike in the warmer months, so you can expect extreme heat to become an even more resonant example of the dangers of climate change as we get into the summer.
- We’re winning the fight against climate fatalism, but need to show people that they can personally make a difference. Yale and George Mason find that Americans widely reject the idea that it’s “too late to do anything about global warming.” Americans also disagree that individual actions can’t have an impact on the problem, but not by an overwhelming margin. While it’s encouraging that Americans see a window to act on climate change, there’s much more work to do to increase people’s senses of self-efficacy.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change] 74% of Americans recognize that global warming is happening, compared to just 15% who deny it [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate Change + Extreme Weather] Large majorities of Americans recognize that global warming is affecting extreme weather events in the U.S. such as extreme heat (75%), wildfires (71%), droughts (71%), flooding (69%), water shortages (69%), and hurricanes (68%) [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate Change Fatalism] 66% of Americans disagree that it’s too late to do anything about global warming, compared to just 13% who agree that it’s too late [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate Change] 61% of Americans recognize that global warming is mostly caused by humans [Yale + GMU]
- [Shipping] 83% of voters support gradually requiring all cargo ships to run on cleaner fuels and ultimately produce no carbon pollution by 2040 [Climate Nexus + Yale + GMU]
- [Shipping] 77% of voters support requiring ships to produce no carbon or air pollution while docked in U.S. ports by 2030 [Climate Nexus + Yale + GMU]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue aside from inflation/prices, health care, and the economy/jobs [The Economist + YouGov]
FULL ROUNDUP
Yale + GMU – Clear majorities continue to say that global warming is happening, caused by humans, and affecting the weather; most Americans reject climate fatalism and say that there is still time to act (Website, Full Report)
The newest report from the long-running “Climate Change in the American Mind” study, run by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) and George Mason Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU 4C), includes findings from a poll fielded from late April through early May.
Comparing the findings from the new report to the previous edition, which surveyed Americans in December 2022, allows us to see how the country’s climate attitudes have shifted since the end of last year. When it comes to Americans’ general beliefs about climate change – such as whether it’s happening and whether humans are causing it – the report finds that public opinion has trended slightly upward over the past few months:
- 74% recognize that global warming is happening (+4 since Dec. 2022)
- 61% recognize that global warming is mostly caused by humans (+3 since Dec. 2022)
Americans’ beliefs about the impacts of climate change, meanwhile, are generally stable. Compared to December, slightly more now say that global warming is affecting weather in the United States and about half continue to say that Americans are being harmed “right now” by global warming:
- 65% recognize that global warming is affecting weather in the United States (+5 since Dec. 2022)
- 48% recognize that people in the United States are being harmed by global warming “right now” (-1 since Dec. 2022)
- 44% say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming (-3 since Dec. 2022)
The survey also asked how much people think global warming is affecting a variety of different extreme weather events and other environmental problems, and this data is instructive for showing which types of extreme weather events are most and least intuitively connected to climate change in Americans’ minds. As has consistently been the case in recent years, Yale and GMU find that Americans believe climate change contributes more to hot and dry weather events – such as extreme heat, wildfires, and droughts – than to other types of extreme weather such as hurricanes and tornadoes.
Here’s the list of environmental problems that the poll asked about, ranked by the percentage of Americans who say that climate change is having “a lot” of impact on each:
- Extreme heat – 42%
- Wildfires – 40%
- Droughts – 38%
- Rising sea levels – 37%
- Flooding – 34%
- Water shortages – 33%
- Hurricanes – 32%
- Tornadoes – 31%
- Air pollution – 29%
- Reduced snow pack – 29%
- Water pollution – 21%
- Electricity power outages – 20%
- Agricultural pests and diseases – 19%
The poll additionally asked how worried people are about each of these same environmental problems. By comparing the two questions about each environmental problem, we can see that extreme heat stands out as the environmental problem that Americans are most worried about and believe to be most connected to climate change. Air and water pollution, meanwhile, rank highly on Americans’ list of environmental concerns but relatively low in terms of their perceived link to climate change.
Here’s the list of environmental problems that were asked about in the poll ranked by the percentage of Americans who say that they are “very” or “moderately” worried about each:
- Extreme heat – 45%
- Air pollution – 39%
- Water pollution – 37%
- Electricity power outages – 35%
- Droughts – 35%
- Water shortages – 30%
- Agricultural pests and diseases – 26%
- Flooding – 26%
- Tornadoes – 26%
- Wildfires – 26%
- Rising sea levels – 21%
- Hurricanes – 20%
- Reduced snow pack – 17%
It’s worth noting that there are likely significant geographical differences underneath these national numbers. Other polls show, for example, that droughts and water shortages are acute concerns in Western states.
When communicating to Americans regardless of geography, though, it’s safe to assume that extreme heat is a highly salient way to talk about the current impacts of climate change and that people will be more concerned about climate change the more you can connect it to high-ranking environmental concerns like air and water pollution.
One of the more encouraging findings in the new report is that Americans reject fatalist talk about climate change. Just 13% agree with the statement that “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming,” while 66% disagree.
Most Americans also disagree with statements that “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming” (57% disagree) and that “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes in their lives” (56% disagree), showing that Americans tend to believe that individuals like them have a role to play in the fight against climate change.
Climate Nexus + Yale + GMU – Voters support transitioning the cargo shipping industry to zero carbon emissions by 2040 (Release, Topline)
We haven’t seen much polling about the shipping industry, despite the large impact that it has on the environment and the significant potential for cleaner shipping practices to reduce climate pollution. As Climate Nexus lays out in its poll release:
“Cargo ships burn the world’s dirtiest fuel, and climate pollution from the maritime shipping sector could more than double by 2050, raising the industry’s 3% share of global climate pollution. Pollution produced by cargo ships also profoundly affects the health of people worldwide, contributing to an estimated 6 million cases of childhood asthma and hundreds of thousands of premature deaths around the world each year.”
The poll finds that voters have generally positive impressions of the cargo shipping industry: more than three in five view the industry favorably (63% favorable / 6% unfavorable), and three-quarters (75%) believe that the industry has a positive impact on jobs and the economy.
While voters assume that the shipping industry causes a certain amount of pollution, they don’t see it as a particularly “dirty” industry: about one-quarter (27%) say that the shipping industry is “extremely” or “very” polluting, while an additional 40% believe it is “somewhat” polluting.
When it comes to particular environmental problems, voters are more likely to associate the shipping industry with ocean pollution than with climate change or public health. Majorities believe that the shipping industry has negative impacts on ocean cleanliness (62%) and ocean wildlife (59%), while a little under half say that the industry negatively impacts Earth’s climate (45%) and air quality (45%). Meanwhile, only 23% believe that the industry negatively impacts public health.
Despite this uncertainty about the shipping industry’s impacts on climate change and everyday people, however, voters overwhelmingly agree that the industry “needs to reduce the amount of carbon pollution it produces” (78% agree / 16% disagree).
Additionally, after learning that the cargo shipping industry “is a major source of carbon, air, and water pollution that contributes to climate change, makes people sick, and kills ocean wildlife,” four in five five voters support Congress passing laws to reduce pollution from cargo ships and ensure cleaner shipping practices (80% support / 16% oppose).
In terms of specific policy proposals to reduce the shipping industry’s pollution, voters support a range of solutions – including transitioning the industry to zero carbon pollution by 2040 and funding the port infrastructure needed for this transition:
- 83% support gradually requiring all cargo ships to run on cleaner fuels and produce no carbon pollution by 2040
- 81% support funding ports to build the infrastructure needed to distribute clean fuels and let ships run on electricity while in port
- 77% support requiring ships to produce no carbon or air pollution while docked in U.S. ports by 2030
- 76% support providing funds to speed up the development of clean fuels and ships powered by renewable energy
- 70% support lowering speed limits for ships to improve efficiency and reduce threats to ocean wildlife
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