Environmental Polling Roundup – June 21, 2024
HEADLINES
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) – “Biggest ever” survey on climate change finds that 80% of people across the globe want their governments to take stronger action on climate change; while most Americans support stronger climate action and a transition to clean energy, U.S. support lags behind comparable nations [Release, Full Report]
Oregon State University – Research finds that Americans are more confident blaming climate change for extreme heat and wildfires than for other types of extreme weather such as flooding, tornadoes, and hurricanes [Release, Journal Article]
LCV + Climate Power – Battleground voters are concerned that Trump prioritizes his own personal interests over future generations and that he would let corporate polluters poison communities with toxic chemicals [Deck]
[WI] Climate Power – Wisconsin voters aren’t familiar with President Biden’s climate accomplishments, but react very positively to hearing about them [Deck]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Now is the time to talk about the role of climate change in extreme heat. Polls consistently show that Americans have an easier time understanding the connections between climate change and hot and dry weather events than other types of extreme weather, and a new paper by researchers at Oregon State University affirms that Americans are more confident linking climate change to extreme heat and wildfires than to other weather events such as hurricanes, floods, or tornadoes. As a result, we tend to see climate concerns spike in polls in the warmer summer months. With record heat waves now hitting much of the U.S., Americans are especially primed to listen to solutions to curb the year-to-year increase in temperatures.
- Don’t assume that everyday people are hearing about the boom in clean energy jobs. Research continues to show that the American public is largely in the dark about climate accomplishments under President Biden’s administration, including the rapid growth in clean energy jobs. In recent focus groups with Wisconsin voters, for example, Climate Power reports that “voters did not initially recognize clean energy as being a great job creator, but statistics like creating nearly 300,000 new jobs nationally and saving households nearly $100 a month helped voters see Biden’s actions as having a tangible impact on their lives.” With the economy and cost of living continuing to rate as the public’s biggest issue priorities, these kinds of proof points about the jobs and cost benefits of the clean energy transition are critical for building support for further clean energy expansion.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [International Cooperation] 86% of people surveyed across 77 countries, including 80% in the United States, say that countries should work together on climate change even if they disagree on other issues [UNDP]
- [Climate Action] 66% of Americans want the United States to strengthen its commitment to address climate change [UNDP]
- [Adaptation/Resilience] 57% of Americans say that the United States should provide more protection for people at risk of extreme weather impacts [UNDP]
- [Clean Energy] 54% of Americans say that the United States should “quickly” transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy [UNDP]
FULL ROUNDUP
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) – “Biggest ever” survey on climate change finds that 80% of people across the globe want their governments to take stronger action on climate change; while most Americans support stronger climate action and a transition to clean energy, U.S. support lags behind comparable nations [Release, Full Report]
In what they’re labeling the “biggest ever standalone public opinion survey on climate change,” the UNDP’s “People’s Climate Vote 2024” report draws on more than 73,000 interviews in 87 different languages across 77 countries. These 77 surveyed countries collectively make up 87% of the global population.
The overall results show that the global population is conscious of the threat of climate change: most people (56%) say that they think about climate change at least weekly, and the majority (53%) also say that they are more worried about climate change now than they were last year.
The results also show broad agreement across the globe on the needs to cooperate internationally to address climate change, prioritize climate action at the national level, and quickly transition to clean energy:
- 86% say that countries should put their disagreements aside and work together on addressing climate change
- 80% want their country to strengthen its commitment to address climate change
- 79% say that richer countries should give more help to poorer countries to address climate change
- 72% want their country to transition “quickly” from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy
Majorities of Americans also agree with each of these priorities, though attitudes in the U.S. lag behind the global average and also generally lag behind other major Western economies such as Canada, the U.K., and Germany:
- 80% of Americans say that countries should put their disagreements aside and work together on addressing climate change
- 66% of Americans say that the United States should strengthen its commitment to address climate change
- 64% of Americans say that richer countries should give more help to poorer countries to address climate change
- 54% of Americans say that the United States should transition “quickly” from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy
Previous research has shown that Americans’ relatively muted support for climate action is driven in large part by political polarization. Pew, for example, found in 2021 that the left/right divide on climate concern in the United States is far greater than in any comparable nation.
Oregon State University – Research finds that Americans are more confident blaming climate change for extreme heat and wildfires than for other types of extreme weather such as flooding, tornadoes, and hurricanes [Release, Journal Article]
Polling has long shown that Americans tend to believe that hot and dry weather events are the most connected to climate change. Yale and GMU found last year, for example, that Americans are more likely to say that global warming is affecting extreme heat, droughts, and wildfires than to say that it’s affecting other types of extreme weather such as hurricanes and floods.
This new paper from researchers at Oregon State University affirms this finding, showing that Americans are more confident blaming climate change for heat and wildfires than for other types of extreme weather.
Additionally, people who report personal experience with extreme weather are more likely to say that it was caused by climate change – even when controlling for other factors such as partisanship.
Pulling from their story on the paper, with emphasis added in bold:
“Oregon State University researchers found that U.S. adults are fairly confident in linking wildfires and heat to climate change, but less confident when it comes to other extreme weather events like hurricanes, flooding or tornadoes.
The recent study found that politics and personal experience played significant roles in people’s responses: Self-identified Republicans were less likely than Democrats to attribute extreme weather events to climate change, though Republicans who had personally experienced negative impacts from extreme weather events were more likely to link them to climate change than those who hadn’t.
Looking at extreme weather events across the board, 83% of survey respondents said there is some link between these events and anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change. About 17% thought climate change had nothing to do with extreme weather.”
LCV + Climate Power – Battleground voters are concerned that Trump prioritizes his own personal interests over future generations and that he would let corporate polluters poison communities with toxic chemicals [Deck]
LCV and Climate Power tested how messages about Trump that focus on climate change, clean energy, and the environment move voters in battleground states.
Overall, they find that this messaging both shifts the presidential race in these states (from Trump +2 to Biden +3) and that it increases perceptions that Trump is “dangerous” (from 50% to 55%) – with particularly large movement among key audiences such as young voters and Black voters.
Pulling from the deck’s “Key Takeaways”:
- “Attacking Trump for his harmful record on climate and energy issues moves the vote in Biden’s favor and heightens voters’ sense that Trump is ‘dangerous.’
- Too many voters that Biden needs to win mistakenly believe a Trump presidency would benefit them. Voters care about energy costs: we must show that Trump’s policies will raise their costs, while Biden’s will reduce their costs.
- Trump is vulnerable on job losses. We need to highlight how Trump’s plans to end clean energy investments would lead to layoffs and hurt local communities. This showcases the harmful impact of his self-interest and his alliance with Big Oil.
- Voters care about a candidate’s stance on air and water pollution, and about half of potential Biden defectors currently trust Trump on these issues. When they hear about Trump’s disastrous record on pollution, they view him as dangerous to them personally.”
Their research also finds that two criticisms of Trump are particularly concerning to persuadable voters in battleground states:
- “He puts future generations at risk to protect his own personal interests.”
- “He would let corporate polluters poison our communities with toxic chemicals.”
And in terms of specific proof points to back up these criticisms, persuadable voters are particularly concerned by Trump’s vow to be a “dictator on day one” to remove environmental protections and by his plan to repeal Biden’s clean energy investments and potentially eliminate new clean energy jobs:
- “Trump says he wants to be a dictator on day one so that he can eliminate environmental protections and expand oil drilling, including in our nation’s treasured public lands and coastal areas.”
- “President Biden’s clean energy plan has created more than 270,000 jobs and spurred hundreds of billions of dollars in private sector investments. If Trump wins, he will end investments in clean energy, which could lead to thousands of workers being laid off and hurt local communities across the country.”
[WI] Climate Power – Wisconsin voters aren’t familiar with President Biden’s climate accomplishments, but react very positively to hearing about them [Deck]
Climate Power has been surveying voters in a range of battleground states about climate and clean energy issues in the presidential race. This new release from Wisconsin follows up on previously released polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Pulling some of the “Key Takeaways” in the Wisconsin deck, which largely mirror what Climate Power has found in other battleground states:
“Biden’s successful record on climate and clean energy and Trump’s disastrous record are not fully known in Wisconsin. The impact of our positive messaging and credibility of our negative messaging is generally well-received, as voters are already predisposed to believing that Trump puts profits over people – it’s just a matter of reminding them.
Climate and clean energy messaging results in a notable net 6-point shift in the margin toward Biden. Contrast messaging on climate and clean energy moves voters toward Biden—turning his 3-point deficit into a 3-point lead.
Messaging on clean energy and climate increases Biden’s vote margin among Black voters by an impressive 21 points and among younger middle-of-the-road voters by 12 points. It also significantly boosts motivation among younger voters and Black women.
It also boosts perceptions that Biden has gotten important things done – including on the economy. It also makes the case that Biden is for the people while Trump only cares about profits, and it adds value by layering on top of messaging that the Biden campaign and other allies are likely to use to make these arguments.
Key communication targets in Wisconsin are Black voters (especially women), younger women, and younger middle partisans.
Highlighting Biden positives in Wisconsin is a must, but we will be most effective when we contrast those with Trump negatives.
Regression analysis shows that messages that can drive the following frames are most likely to boost Biden’s vote share in Wisconsin:
- Positive: ‘As president, Joe Biden has been able to get important things done.’
- Contrast: ‘Donald Trump prioritizes profits over people, while Joe Biden stands up for the greater good.’
- Contrast: ‘Joe Biden has a better approach to dealing with the economy than Donald Trump.’
- Negative: ‘A second Trump presidency would be bad for future generations.’
Most effective pro-Biden message: Biden’s clean energy law is creating jobs and creating a better and healthier future in Wisconsin. Environmental Justice messaging is potent with Black voters.
Wisconsin voters are concerned about the state of the economy and view Trump as a business-first candidate – which can have both positive and negative connotations. We need to redefine Trump as a self-serving, profit-first candidate willing to sell out our health, climate, and clean energy progress to benefit himself and his Big Oil allies.
Effective messaging on Trump in Wisconsin should highlight four categories of voter concerns:
- Trump’s denial of climate change raises concerns about his fitness for office.
- Voters are also concerned about Trump’s ‘dictator on day one’ comment and refusal to listen to the experts.
- Voters are turned off by Trump’s giveaways to Big Oil, which illustrate that Trump sides with wealthy corporate profiteers and polluters rather than regular Americans.
- Relatedly, voters easily internalize messaging that points out that Trump’s support for Big Oil also means more profits for himself.”
Related Resources
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