Environmental Polling Roundup – September 20, 2024
HEADLINES
Navigator, Pew – Climate change is once again a top-tier issue for Democratic voters [Navigator Deck, Pew Article]
[MI] Farm Forward + Data for Progress – Michigan voters have much more positive attitudes toward the clean energy industry than the fossil fuel industry, and want the state to hold oil and gas companies more accountable for their pollution [Release, Report, Crosstabs]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Climate change is one of the main motivators for the Democratic electorate. Media reporting on voters’ “most important issues” continues to obscure that partisans are motivated by different sets of issues, as well as the extent to which climate change has become a core issue for Democratic voters. Recent polls by Navigator and Pew both find that climate change is a top-tier priority for Democratic voters, only slightly behind the economy and abortion. This continues a similar trend that we saw in polls before and after the 2022 midterms, when climate change consistently ranked as one of Democratic voters’ top issue concerns and climate voters formed a vital piece of the Democratic coalition in the election.
Voters have much more good will toward clean energy companies than fossil fuel companies. Farm Forward and Data for Progress find that Michigan voters across party lines have overwhelmingly positive opinions about clean energy companies and mixed attitudes about fossil fuel companies. These findings echo what we’ve seen in national polling, and have a clear link to voters’ policy preferences: while polls consistently show that voters support incentives to boost the solar and wind industries, they widely oppose continued government subsidies for fossil fuel companies.
FULL ROUNDUP
Navigator, Pew – Climate change is once again a top-tier issue for Democratic voters [Navigator Deck, Pew Article]
Polls show that climate change ranks as a middle-tier issue for the public overall, as economic concerns continue to dominate. Navigator finds that around one-quarter of voters (23%) rank climate change as one of the top four priorities for Congress, while inflation (54%) leads all other priorities by a wide margin.
Following inflation as well as jobs and the economy (40%) and immigration (40%), the environment/climate change ranks closer to other priorities such as Social Security and Medicare (32%), health care (30%), abortion (27%), and crime (25%).
Pew similarly finds that, far more than any other issue, voters rank the economy (81%) as a “very important” factor in their vote for president this year. Meanwhile, less than half of voters in Pew’s data (37%) say that climate change is a “very important” issue in their vote.
Beneath the surface, climate change ranks as one of the very top issues for Democrats along with abortion and the economy. Navigator finds that the environment/climate change is one of the highest-ranking issues for Democrats, with 38% choosing it as a top-four priority – more than any other issue aside from inflation (44%) and abortion (41%).
This finding is largely consistent with Pew’s data, where Democrats are only slightly less likely to rate climate change (62%) as “very important” in their vote than the economy (68%) or abortion (67%).
In both polls, climate change ranks as one of the lowest issue priorities for Republican voters – causing it to fall further down the list in the aggregated, topline numbers.
Climate change is not unique in the extent to which one party’s voters prioritize it over the other’s. Navigator, for example, finds that a similarly wide gap exists between Democrats’ and Republicans’ prioritization of abortion. And there’s an even larger gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ prioritization of immigration.
While the media focuses on the aggregated topline numbers for these “most important issue” questions, it’s important to realize that Democratic voters and Republican voters are motivated by very different sets of issues. And just as the conventional wisdom accepts that abortion is a motivating issue for Democrats and immigration is a motivating issue for Republicans, polls show that climate change should be viewed similarly as a core issue for Democratic voters.
These findings also suggest that the impact of issue priorities in the 2024 election could follow a similar pattern as the 2022 midterms, when Democrats’ overwhelming strength among voters who prioritized abortion and climate change helped them neutralize Republicans’ strength with voters who prioritized the economy.
[MI] Farm Forward + Data for Progress – Michigan voters have much more positive attitudes toward the clean energy industry than the fossil fuel industry, and want the state to hold oil and gas companies more accountable for their pollution [Release, Report, Crosstabs]
Solar and wind are overwhelmingly popular across party lines in Michigan. Around four in five voters in the state have favorable attitudes about solar (81% favorable / 14% unfavorable) and wind (79% favorable / 17% unfavorable) as energy sources. Republicans in the state also have overwhelmingly positive attitudes about both energy sources, with around seven in ten Republicans saying that they feel favorably about solar (73% favorable / 21% unfavorable) and wind (70% favorable / 25% unfavorable).
Michigan voters are very supportive of clean energy companies, and on the fence about fossil fuel companies. Around three-quarters of voters feel favorably about clean energy companies (73% favorable / 20% unfavorable), including three in five Republicans (61% favorable / 31% unfavorable).
Meanwhile, only half of voters in the state have favorable attitudes about fossil fuel companies (50% favorable / 38% unfavorable).
Michigan voters say that fossil fuel companies are harming the state, and want the state to hold them more accountable. Most voters in the state (58%) say that oil and gas companies have a negative impact on air quality for Michigan communities, and around half also say that these fossil fuel companies are negatively impacting water quality (51%) and public health (48%) in Michigan.
Consistent with these attitudes, Michigan voters want to see the state take a harder line toward fossil fuel companies. Most (57%) say that Michigan’s government should stop giving financial incentives to large corporations in the oil and gas industry, such as ExxonMobile or BP. And after learning that many cities and states are suing oil and gas companies to help pay for climate disasters like wildfires, droughts, and floods, around three-quarters of Michigan voters (73%) – including nearly two-thirds of Republican voters (65%) – say that they support making polluters pay for climate damages.
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