Environmental Polling Roundup – October 4, 2024
HEADLINES
Navigator – Voters have mixed attitudes about “fossil fuel companies,” but have deeply negative opinions about “oil and gas companies”; voters believe that climate change is one of VP Harris’s top priorities and one of Trump’s lowest priorities [Topline]
American Conservation Coalition Action – Voters, regardless of partisanship, say that they are more likely on net to vote for candidates who have plans to address climate change [Release]
[Battleground States] Climate Power – VP Harris moves into the lead in battleground states after voters see messaging for Harris and against Trump on clean energy; economic proof points are particularly important, including cost savings for consumers under Harris’s plan and tax breaks for Big Oil under Trump’s plan [Memo]
[Latino Voters] Climate Power En Acción – Messaging on the clean energy economy widens VP Harris’s vote margin with Latino voters in swing states, particularly younger Latinos [Deck]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
“Oil and gas companies” are a more compelling foil than “fossil fuel companies.” Navigator finds that voters have mixed opinions about “fossil fuel companies” (37% favorable / 39% unfavorable) but deeply negative attitudes about “oil and gas companies” (35% favorable / 54% unfavorable). In fact, voters rate oil and gas companies nearly as negatively as pharmaceutical companies. When using the oil and gas industry as a foil in communications, we therefore recommend using the term “oil and gas companies,” which is more colloquial (per Google Trends) and also viewed more negatively. Even better, where applicable, recent research by Global Strategy Group found that voters have particularly negative reactions to “Big Oil CEOs.”
Cost arguments about the clean energy transition continue to grab voters’ attention. Inflation remains far and away Americans’ top issue concern, and we’ve accordingly seen cost-focused arguments about the clean energy transition resonate more than ever before. Recent battleground polling by Climate Power included an exercise asking respondents to highlight the most compelling parts of energy-related messaging in favor of VP Harris and against Trump. In this exercise, voters were most drawn to the economic figures both in the pro-Harris messaging (including that her plan will “save Americans $38 billion on electricity bills” and “help middle-class and working families save $80 per month on energy bills”) and in the anti-Trump messaging (including that his plan would “give oil and gas companies $110 billion in tax cuts”).
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Oil + Gas Accountability] Voters have deeply unfavorable opinions of oil and gas companies (35% favorable / 54% unfavorable), rating them nearly as negatively as pharmaceutical companies (34% favorable / 56% unfavorable) [Navigator]
- [Climate Change + Elections] By wide margins, both Republican voters (37% more likely / 15% less likely) and independent voters (44% more likely / 7% less likely) say that they are more likely on net to vote for a political candidate who has a plan to address climate change [American Conservation Coalition Action]
FULL ROUNDUP
Navigator – Voters have mixed attitudes about “fossil fuel companies,” but have deeply negative opinions about “oil and gas companies”; voters believe that climate change is one of VP Harris’s top priorities and one of Trump’s lowest priorities [Topline]
Voters have much more negative attitudes about “oil and gas companies” than they do about “fossil fuel companies.” Voters have mixed feelings about “fossil fuel companies” (37% favorable / 39% unfavorable), but have deeply negative attitudes about “oil and gas companies” (35% favorable / 54% unfavorable).
Navigator finds that “oil and gas companies” are nearly even as unpopular as “pharmaceutical companies” (34% favorable / 56% unfavorable). This finding is consistent with recent Gallup research, which shows oil and gas and pharmaceuticals to be the two least popular business sectors of the 24 that they regularly ask about.
One key difference between “fossil fuel companies” and “oil and gas companies” in Navigator’s polling is that voters are about twice as likely to say that they can’t rate fossil fuel companies (24%) as to say that they can’t rate oil and gas companies (11%). This tracks with Google Trends data, which shows that “oil and gas” is a far more common way to describe the industry.
Based on this data, we recommend that advocates use the more familiar (and disliked) description “oil and gas companies” rather than “fossil fuel companies.” Even better, where applicable, focus on “Big Oil CEOs” or “oil and gas CEOs,” as recent research by Global Strategy Group found that voters have particularly negative reactions to the CEOs of these industries.
Voters believe that the environment/climate change is one of VP Harris’s top priorities and one of Trump’s lowest priorities. When asked to choose up to four issues that they believe Harris is most focused on, voters rate abortion (58%) as by far her top issue, followed by jobs and the economy (30%), climate change and the environment (30%), and health care (28%).
When asked the same question about Trump, voters place immigration (66%) as his clear top issue, followed by inflation (37%), national security and foreign policy (34%), and jobs and the economy (33%). Climate change and the environment ranks as one of the lowest perceived priorities for Trump, with just 3% saying that it’s one of his top priorities.
In terms of how these perceived candidate priorities stack up to voters’ own issue priorities, voters rate Harris’s prioritization of climate change as much closer to their own. Around one-quarter of voters (23%) say that climate change is one of the top four issues that Congress should be focusing on–not as high as the 30% who believe that it’s a high-priority issue for Harris but well above the 3% who believe that it’s a high-priority issue for Trump.
American Conservation Coalition Action – Voters, regardless of partisanship, say that they are more likely on net to vote for candidates who have plans to address climate change [Release]
Democrats continue to hold large advantages on climate and the environment. Consistent with other recent polling, the American Conservation Coalition Action finds that voters trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party by wide margins on addressing climate change (51% Democrats / 30% Republicans) and on protecting human health and the environment (50% Democrats / 34% Republicans).
Voters, regardless of partisanship, want candidates to have plans to address climate change. By wide margins, independent voters (44% more likely / 7% less likely) and Republican voters (37% more likely / 15% less likely) say that they are more likely on net to vote for a candidate with a plan to address climate change. As this data shows, candidates who ignore the reality of climate change risk alienating voters from all segments of the electorate.
Voters don’t want to cede the clean energy battle to China. Three in five voters (60%) are concerned about China leading the U.S. in clean energy supply chains, indicating a strong reservoir of support for bringing more clean energy manufacturing to the U.S. Relatedly, LCV found in Michigan last year that voters are persuaded by the argument that the U.S. would be “letting China win” if we don’t do more to compete with China in EV parts manufacturing.
[Battleground States] Climate Power – VP Harris moves into the lead in battleground states after voters see messaging for Harris and against Trump on clean energy; economic proof points are particularly important, including cost savings for consumers under Harris’s plan and tax breaks for Big Oil under Trump’s plan [Memo]
Climate and clean energy messaging can break a deadlocked race in battleground states. Pulling from Climate Power’s memo:
“In battleground states, Harris and Trump start out tied at 47-47 in a multi-candidate trial heat and 49-49 in a head-to-head match… After voters are presented with a positive narrative on climate and clean energy in favor of Harris, and a negative narrative against Trump, Harris pulls ahead by four points (49% Harris, 45% Trump).
The biggest shifts come from key groups: independents (moving from +6 Trump to +6 Harris), voters of color under age 30 (+42 Harris to +53 Harris), and younger voters (ages 25-34), who shift from +10 Harris (51-42) to +21 Harris (57-36).”
Economic proof points are particularly resonant, including cost savings for consumers under Harris’s plan and tax breaks for Big Oil under Trump’s plan. Pulling again from the memo:
“We have a strong economic contrast to make on clean energy: Harris is focused on working families and the middle class, while Trump is protecting Big Oil. The expansion of clean energy does connect to lower utility costs for voters. Our most persuasive case centers on the cost savings under Harris’s clean energy plan versus Trump’s $110 billion in tax breaks for oil and gas companies.
This argument resonates with ‘gettable’ voters (i.e. likely voters after excluding white strong Republicans who are definitely voting for Trump). Over six in 10 say the positive case for Harris (64%) and the negative case against Trump (63%) are important reasons to support her. The anti-Trump message hits harder, with 51% saying it’s a ‘very important’ reason to oppose him, compared to 48% for Harris’s positive case.
In our message highlighting exercise, the economic proof points are the most persuasive. Harris’s tie-breaking vote to triple clean energy production, saving Americans $38 billion on electricity bills and helping middle-class families save $80 a month, stood out. Her track record of holding Big Oil accountable for price gouging as Attorney General also resonated.
On Trump, the strongest points against him were his $110 billion in tax cuts for oil and gas companies and his intent to be a ‘dictator on day one,’ allowing corporate polluters to release toxic chemicals into communities.”
[Latino Voters] Climate Power En Acción – Messaging on the clean energy economy widens VP Harris’s vote margin with Latino voters in swing states, particularly younger Latinos [Deck]
Messaging about the clean energy economy boosts Harris’s vote share with Latino voters, particularly younger Latino voters. In this poll of Latino voters in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Climate Power En Acción finds that messaging on the clean energy economy produces a substantial boost in Harris’s vote margin with both Latino men (+5) and Latino women (+7). This messaging leads to particularly large shifts among voters aged 18-29 (+8 among Latino women aged 18-29 and +12 among Latino men aged 18-29).
Many Latino voters are in the dark about Harris’s and Trump’s approaches to climate change. Less than one in five Latino voters in the poll say that they’ve heard “a lot” about either Harris’s (18%) or Trump’s (17%) plans on climate change.
Meanwhile, around four in ten (38%) say that they have “not heard much at all” about Harris’s plan and half (50%) say that they have “not heard much at all” about Trump’s.
This low level of current familiarity with the candidates’ respective approaches to climate change helps explain why climate and clean energy messaging continues to move the needle with Latino voters.
Contrast messaging on energy issues is particularly impactful in the presidential race. Pulling from the deck’s “Recommendations and Key Takeaways” slide:
“Clean Energy: Latino priorities have been stable over the last four years. Raising the prospects of a clean energy economy raises support among key demographics that are still in play with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.
Job Creation: Latinos are a young demographic, seeking opportunity, while also seeking ways to create stability for their families. The future is of great concern for Latinos, and communicating the economic benefits of a booming clean energy economy presents this young community with opportunities to achieve the American Dream.
Resonance with Young Latino Voters: Kamala Harris opens up possibilities for Latinos, with whom President Biden struggled to connect. Latinos report high levels of trust in Harris, making a direct investment in Latino messaging an opportunity to capture the salience of Harris’ relatability. While abortion is the main driver of Harris’s current advantage among Latinas, clean energy economy messaging performs better among Latino swing voters and younger (18-34) men.
Contrast: The strongest messaging frame drew contrasts between Harris and Trump. Presenting solutions while reminding the audiences about Trump’s terrible and proven track record of support for Big Oil CEOs and corporate tax handouts generates strong responses from Latinos–especially younger Latinos.”
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