Environmental Polling Roundup - October 27, 2023

Environmental Polling Roundup – October 27, 2023

David Gold

October 27th, 2023

HEADLINES

Pew – Americans widely agree that climate change is harming people in the U.S. today and expect climate impacts to get worse in the future; most trust that climate scientists understand the problem, despite doubts among Republicans [Climate Impacts Article, Scientific Trust Article, Report, Topline]

Yale + GMU – Republicans who worry the most about climate change skew younger, more female, and more suburban than other Republicans [Article]

Navigator – Investments in infrastructure and clean energy rank among President Biden’s most widely recognized accomplishments, as majorities continue to support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act [Release, Deck]

KEY TAKEAWAYS

There’s an emerging consensus that climate change is negatively impacting Americans right now. Pew finds that seven in ten Americans believe that people in the country are currently being harmed by climate change, following other recent polling that has shown increased recognition of climate impacts after another historically hot summer.
There are clear pockets of climate concern within the Republican electorate. Yale and GMU find that several specific geographic and demographic subgroups within the Republican electorate tend to have deeper climate concerns than the rest of their party – especially younger Republicans, Republican women, and suburban Republicans. These particular groups also coincide with typical swing voting blocks in elections, suggesting that the national Republican Party’s dismissiveness toward climate change will again be a liability next fall.
Voters see President Biden as a “clean energy president.” Navigator finds that majorities of voters recognize and support the way that President Biden has invested in clean energy. These findings are consistent with previous polling that shows that Americans associate Biden’s presidency with clean energy.

GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT

[Climate Change] 75% of Americans recognize that human activity is contributing at least “some” to climate change [Pew]
[Climate Change] 71% of Americans agree that climate change is causing at least “some” harm to people in the U.S. today [Pew]
[Climate Change] 56% of Americans rate climate change as an “extremely” or “very” serious problem [Pew]
[Climate Change + Scientific Trust] 65% of Americans believe that climate scientists understand how climate change affects extreme weather events “very” or “fairly” well [Pew]
[Climate Change + Scientific Trust] 63% of Americans believe that climate scientists understand the causes of climate change “very” or “fairly” well [Pew]
[Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue aside from inflation/prices and health care [The Economist + YouGov]

FULL ROUNDUP

Pew’s latest climate report finds that, despite wide partisan gaps, majorities of Americans view climate change as a serious, here-and-now issue:

71% of Americans say that climate change is causing at least “some” harm to people in the U.S. today
56% of Americans rate climate change as an “extremely” or “very” serious problem, including 85% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans

Americans also broadly agree that the impacts of climate change will get worse in the future, with many concerned about the effects on their own community:

63% expect that the harm to people in the U.S. caused by climate change will get worse in their lifetime
41% say that the effects of climate change over the next 30 years will make their community a worse place to live, including majorities of Americans aged 18-29 (56%) and residents of Western states (51%)

Heat waves continue to be a particularly common concern, with 61% of Americans believing that heat waves over the next 30 years will “definitely” or “probably” cause large numbers of people in the U.S. to die every year.

Majorities also believe that rising sea levels will likely force large numbers of people in the U.S. to move from the coast (58%) and that widespread drought in Western U.S. states will likely cause most rivers to dry up (54%).

When it comes to the science of climate change, Americans widely recognize that human activity is contributing to the problem and most put their trust in climate scientists to understand it:

75% believe that human activities such as burning fossil fuels are contributing at least “some” to climate change, including 46% who believe that human activities are contributing “a great deal”
68% believe that climate scientists understand whether or not global climate change is occurring “very” or “fairly” well
65% believe that climate scientists understand how global climate change affects extreme weather events “very” or “fairly” well
63% believe that climate scientists understand the causes of global climate change “very” or “fairly” well
52% believe that climate scientists understand the best ways to address global climate change “very” or “fairly” well

However, partisan audiences differ widely in their beliefs about the causes of climate change and the trust that they put in scientists:

71% of Democrats but only 19% of Republicans believe that human activities such as burning fossil fuels are contributing “a great deal” to climate change
87% of Democrats but only 47% of Republicans believe that climate scientists understand whether or not climate change is occurring “very” or “fairly” well
85% of Democrats but only 42% of Republicans believe that climate scientists understand how climate change affects extreme weather events “very” or “fairly well”
85% of Democrats but only 40% of Republicans believe that climate scientists understand the causes of climate change “very” or “fairly” well
85% of Democrats but only 28% of Republicans believe that climate scientists understand the best ways to address climate change “very” or “fairly” well

While this Pew report reveals clear doubts about climate science among Republicans, it’s worth noting that messaging about the scientific consensus on climate change still has demonstrated effectiveness with Republican audiences.

We therefore wouldn’t discourage talking about the scientific consensus on the issue with Republican audiences, but we recommend that advocates utilize more conservative-coded messengers – such as military leaders – when communicating to Republican-leaning audiences about climate change.

Yale + GMU – Republicans who worry the most about climate change skew younger, more female, and more suburban than other Republicans [Article]

This new analysis from Yale and GMU provides a good primer for advocates who are interested in effectively targeting their communications within Republican-leaning audiences.

Utilizing data from their long-running Climate Change in the American Mind study and applying their Six Americas audience segmentation framework, Yale and GMU are able to identify the specific demographic and geographic subgroups within the Republican Party that are likely to be the most open to appeals about climate change. Additionally, their article provides recommendations for advocates about how to engage the pro-climate right.

Pulling from their article, with emphasis added in bold:

“The Six Americas framework identifies six distinct audiences for climate change communication within the U.S. The Alarmed and Concerned are the most likely to think that global warming is happening and are the most worried about it…

Overall, the results show that a considerable proportion of U.S. Republicans (27%) are either Alarmed or Concerned about global warming. They are more likely than other Republicans to be younger, women, politically moderate, people of color, or to live in a suburban area. While most Alarmed or Concerned Republicans have strong pro-climate views, fewer say global warming is affecting the weather, perceive it as an urgent personal threat, or hear or talk about global warming. These gaps represent important opportunities for communicating with and supporting pro-climate Republicans.…

Communicators should continue to emphasize how climate change is affecting the weather and personally impacting people and communities right now. Personal experience with climate-related impacts, as well as seeing other people experience the effects of climate change, can help change people’s minds about global warming…

Importantly, communicators should also highlight how climate solutions personally benefit individuals and their communities. Climate change messages that connect to people’s values and worldviews (e.g., what they care about) are effective ways to communicate with populations who are less engaged with climate change. For instance, among the political Right, messages that align with conservative values (e.g., patriotism and ingroup loyalty, economic innovation, business opportunities, energy security) can be more effective than traditional messages in promoting pro-climate attitudes and behavior.”

Navigator – Investments in infrastructure and clean energy rank among President Biden’s most widely recognized accomplishments, as majorities continue to support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act [Release, Deck]

The latest Navigator survey asked voters how much they’d heard about various accomplishments of the Biden administration, and finds that the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law are on the short list of Biden administration accomplishments that most voters have heard about:

55% have heard at least “some” about how President Biden “passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which has invested in clean energy like wind and solar power and has already created more than 170,000 new, good-paying jobs in clean energy across the country”
54% have heard at least “some” about how President Biden “passed a bipartisan law to rebuild roads and bridges, expand power infrastructure, increase passenger rail access, expand broadband access, and improve water infrastructure”

Out of 10 accomplishments that Navigator asked about in the survey, President Biden’s action to lower the cost of prescription drugs is the only one that ranked higher in familiarity (57% heard “at least some”) than the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Polling by CBS News and YouGov last month similarly found that clean energy investment is one of President Biden’s most widely recognized accomplishments, further demonstrating how President Biden has successfully branded himself as pro-clean energy.
The new Navigator poll additionally finds that majorities of voters support each of the Biden administration accomplishments that were included in the survey. Nearly three-quarters of voters say that they support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (73% support / 14% oppose) and nearly three in five say that they support the Inflation Reduction Act (58% support / 25% oppose), continuing the consistently high support that we’ve seen for these pieces of legislation in national polling.

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