Environmental Polling Roundup – October 25, 2024
HEADLINES
YouGov – Majorities of Americans support a range of climate-friendly policies, with particularly strong support for increasing penalties on corporate polluters, growing the clean energy workforce, and investing in disaster preparedness; most can correctly say that VP Harris supports climate and clean energy policies while Trump doesn’t [Topline + Crosstabs]
Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters are familiar with the disinformation over the Biden-Harris administration’s hurricane response; effective rebuttals include how Project 2025 would dismantle FEMA and how Trump’s dangerous lies hurt recovery efforts [Hurricane Disinfo Test Results Memo, Hurricane Disinfo Response Guide, Poll Memo, Poll Crosstabs]
Data for Progress – Following recent hurricanes, voters support a “climate superfund” bill that would help address climate change impacts and increase funding for FEMA [Article, Crosstabs]
[Youth] The Lancet – Young Americans continue to show deep concern about climate change and say that the issue will impact their major life decisions, such as where to live and whether to have children [Axios Article, Open Access Paper]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Hurricane disinformation needs to be rebutted. Research commissioned by Climate Power finds that disinformation about the federal response to recent hurricanes is breaking through in a real way and even hurting VP Harris’s standing with voters. Polling and message testing by Climate Power, OpenLabs, and Data for Progress identifies two particularly strong messaging lanes to rebut this disinformation: that lies being spread by Trump are dangerous and hurt recovery efforts, and that the Project 2025 plan would dismantle FEMA with dangerous consequences for disaster response.
Americans are generally aware of the contrast between Harris and Trump on climate and energy issues, but many still don’t associate Harris with her most popular environmental policies. YouGov finds that most Americans can correctly say that Harris supports pro-environmental policies such as expanding clean energy, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and imposing tougher penalties on polluting companies. Meanwhile, Americans don’t believe that Trump supports these policies but do recognize that he wants to increase fossil fuel production and allow more drilling on federal land. The survey also finds that Americans are more likely to say that they themselves support certain environmental policies than to believe that Harris supports them – including penalizing corporate polluters and hiring thousands of Americans for projects in clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Polluter Accountability] 78% of Americans support imposing tougher penalties on companies causing environmental damage [YouGov]
- [Resilience] 75% of Americans support increasing the federal government’s preparedness for climate-related disasters [YouGov]
- [Climate + Jobs] 71% of Americans supporting hiring thousands of Americans to work on projects in clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience [YouGov]
- [Clean Energy] 60% of Americans support expanding tax credits for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, with just 23% opposed [YouGov]
- [Climate Action] 56% of Americans support cutting greenhouse gas emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2030, with just 23% opposed [YouGov]
- [Extreme Weather + Climate Change] 61% of voters say that extreme weather events are happening because of climate change [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
- [Extreme Weather] 59% of voters recognize that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
- [Climate Superfund] 70% of voters support a “climate superfund” bill after reading a brief description of it [Data for Progress]
FULL ROUNDUP
YouGov – Majorities of Americans support a range of climate-friendly policies, with particularly strong support for increasing penalties on corporate polluters, growing the clean energy workforce, and investing in disaster preparedness; most can correctly say that VP Harris supports climate and clean energy policies while Trump doesn’t [Topline + Crosstabs]
Americans support a range of climate-friendly policies. By wide margins, Americans support each of the following policies to help combat climate change and mitigate its impacts:
-Imposing tougher penalties on companies causing environmental damage (78% support / 11% oppose)
-Increasing the federal government’s preparedness for climate-related disasters (75% support / 11% oppose)
-Hiring thousands of Americans to work on projects in clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience (71% support / 16% oppose)
-Requiring automobiles to meet higher energy efficiency standards (61% support / 25% oppose)
-Expanding tax credits for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power (60% support / 23% oppose)
-Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2030 (56% support / 23% oppose)
-Phasing in electric government vehicles, including school buses and the U.S. Postal Service fleet (52% support / 29% oppose)
There is notably intensity behind the proposals to impose tougher penalties on polluters, increase preparedness for climate-related disasters, and hire Americans for jobs in clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience. For each of these three proposals, 45%+ “strongly” support the idea.
However, there is still an appetite for expanding oil and gas. Nearly three in five Americans say that they support increasing domestic oil and gas production (59% support / 22% oppose).
There is also more support than opposition to speeding up approval of natural gas pipelines (52% support / 23% oppose) and allowing more drilling on federal land (44% support / 34% oppose).
For context, polls consistently show that Americans want to prioritize clean energy development over fossil fuel production. However, Americans also want to keep some fossil fuels in the country’s energy mix for the foreseeable future.
As a result, when communicating about the clean energy transition, it’s most effective to emphasize what we are transitioning toward (more affordable, clean, and renewable energy) rather than what we are transitioning away from.
Americans want strong efficiency standards for vehicles, but remain mixed on EVs. By a greater than two-to-one margin, YouGov finds that Americans support requiring automobiles to meet higher energy efficiency standards (61% support / 25% oppose). However, four in ten want to end federal subsidies for electric vehicles (42% support / 32% oppose).
This finding is consistent with past research, as EV incentives have consistently been less popular than other consumer incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Americans associate Harris with policies that are good for the climate and environment, and don’t believe that Trump supports them. For each proposal in the survey, YouGov asked respondents whether they believed Harris, Trump, both, or neither are in favor of it.
While there is room to grow awareness, most can affirmatively say that Harris supports each of the following proposals:
-Phasing in electric government vehicles, including school buses and the U.S. Postal Service fleet (62% say that Harris supports this)
-Imposing tougher penalties on companies causing environmental damage (60%)
-Requiring automobiles to meet higher energy efficiency standards (60%)
-Expanding tax credits for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power (59%)
-Hiring thousands of Americans to work on projects in clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience (59%)
-Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2030 (58%)
-Increasing the federal government’s preparedness for climate-related disasters (53%)
For each of these proposals – even increasing the government’s preparedness for climate-related disasters – less than three in ten believe that Trump supports it.
Americans recognize that Trump wants to roll back environmental regulations to extract more fossil fuels. Half or more say that Trump supports each of the following proposals:
-Increasing domestic oil and gas production (67%)
-Allowing more drilling on federal land (66%)
-Allowing for the use of fracking in U.S. energy production (65%)
-Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accords (62%)
-Speeding up approval of natural gas pipelines (61%)
-Reducing restrictions on coal-mining operations (53%)
-Ending federal subsidies for electric vehicles (50%)
There are widespread misperceptions about Harris’s stances on fracking and banning fossil fuels. Only one-quarter (25%) can affirmatively say that Harris supports allowing fracking, and around four in ten incorrectly believe that she wants to ban gas-powered cars (43%) and ban the use of fossil fuels (41%).
Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters are familiar with the disinformation over the Biden-Harris administration’s hurricane response; effective rebuttals include how Project 2025 would dismantle FEMA and how Trump’s dangerous lies hurt recovery efforts [Hurricane Disinfo Test Results Memo, Hurricane Disinfo Response Guide, Poll Memo, Poll Crosstabs]
Disinformation about Biden and Harris’s hurricane response is breaking through enough to impact the presidential race. Effective responses include highlighting how disinformation hurts recovery efforts and how Project 2025 would cut disaster relief funding. These are some of the findings from recent research commissioned by Climate Power, including message testing with OpenLabs and a poll with Data for Progress.
Pulling from Climate Power’s memo on the results of their research:
“As disinformation researchers will know, disinformation is most harmful when it reinforces existing beliefs. We are concerned that letting these hurricane disinformation narratives go unanswered further cements some voters’ perception that they don’t trust Vice President Harris and don’t believe she has accomplished much. While hurricane disinformation is subsiding in volume across social media, research from Doppler as recently as October 16 suggests that these narratives remain among the most harmful negative messages of the entire cycle in terms of vote choice…
Our findings suggest:
-Voters are nearly universally aware of disinformation about the Biden-Harris administration’s response to the hurricanes—especially in states where voters cannot see the strong government recovery efforts at work.
-These narratives play into concerns certain voters—particularly Republican- leaning Independents, soft Republicans, and men—already hold about Vice President Harris.
-The best way to counter the most harmful disinformation is to connect its spread to Trump, showing how his propagation of lies impedes recovery efforts, harms Americans, and serves as a precursor of what’s to come if he is elected—including his Big Oil-funded Project 2025 agenda. We need to contrast this with the positive results Vice President Harris is delivering for everyday Americans through the administration’s recovery efforts.“
The top-testing rebuttal messages are as follows:
“[Project 2025] Funded by Big Oil money, Trump’s Project 2025 agenda could become law if he is elected and could force Americans to pay for life-saving weather alerts, dismantle the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and privatize disaster relief, making recovery harder.
[Dangerous Disinformation] Trump spreads dangerous disinformation about extreme weather events and climate change. When he spreads these lies, he puts Americans’ safety at risk, making recovery efforts more difficult by confusing people and making them less likely to seek or receive the aid they need.”
Voters recognize that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and fueled by climate change. Nearly three in five voters (59%) say that extreme weather events like heat waves, wildfires, flooding, hurricanes, and droughts are increasing in frequency. Aside from Republicans, every major group in the electorate acknowledges that these types of events are becoming more frequent.
Meanwhile, around one-third of voters (33%) say that these types of events are happening with the same frequency as always and only 3% of voters say that these types of events are decreasing in frequency.
As for the causes of extreme weather, voters are twice as likely to say that events like heat waves, wildfires, flooding, winter storms, and droughts are happening because of climate change (61%) than to say that these events are unrelated to climate change (30%). Again, aside from Republicans, majorities from every other major subgroup in the electorate agree on this point.
Despite the sharp differences between Republicans’ viewpoints and the rest of the electorate’s, there are many Republicans who do agree with the consensus views about climate change and extreme weather. Around two in five Republicans say that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency (41%) and that these types of events are happening because of climate change (39%).
Meteorologists and scientists are critical messengers to convey the facts about extreme weather. Trusted messengers are key to cutting through and combating disinformation, and the poll finds that voters are most likely to say that they trust meteorologists or weather forecasters (60%) and scientists (46%) for “reliable and unbiased information about extreme weather events like hurricanes.”
Among every major group in the electorate, these are the two most trusted sources – ahead of other sources such as national or state and local news, health officials, national or local elected officials, or friends and family.
Other research has found that meteorologists and scientists also consistently rank among the most trusted sources of information about climate change, along with non-partisan governmental groups such as NASA and the U.S. military.
Data for Progress – Following recent hurricanes, voters support a “climate superfund” bill that would help address climate change impacts and increase funding for FEMA [Article, Crosstabs]
Americans are predictably split by partisanship over which presidential candidate would better handle extreme weather events like the recent hurricanes, and over FEMA’s response. While voters trust Harris (50%) slightly more than Trump (46%) to handle climate and extreme weather disasters like Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, this question at this stage of the election ends up being essentially a proxy for partisanship: 94% of Democrats say that they trust Harris more and 93% of Republicans say that they trust Trump more.
And while voters are nearly twice as likely to say that they feel favorably than unfavorably about FEMA’s response to the recent hurricanes (60% favorable / 32% unfavorable), there is a deep partisan split here as well. More than four in five Democrats (84%) and half of independents (52%) have a positive view of FEMA’s response, while most Republicans rate FEMA’s response negatively (39% favorable / 57% unfavorable).
Americans want to see FEMA sufficiently funded, and support a “climate superfund” bill to help make sure it is. Just over half of voters (51%) say that FEMA’s funding should be increased, while 28% say that its funding should be kept the same and just 12% want to reduce funding for the agency.
And after reading that a potential “climate superfund” bill would require the biggest polluters to pay a share to confront the climate crisis, including providing additional funding to FEMA, seven in ten voters (70%) say that they support a climate superfund bill. The proposal draws support from large majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (65%), as well as roughly half of Republicans (52%).
[Youth] The Lancet – Young Americans continue to show deep concern about climate change and say that the government is “failing them” on the issue [Axios Article, Open Access Paper]
Most young Americans are deeply concerned about climate change. The paper, which draws from a survey of more than 15,000 Americans aged 16-25 that was conducted between July and November 2023, finds that 85% of young Americans are concerned about climate change and the majority (58%) say that they are “extremely” or “very” worried about the issue.
Young Americans say that climate change will impact their major life decisions. Nearly seven in ten young Americans (69%) say that climate change will influence where they choose to live, and about half (52%) say that climate change makes them hesitant to have children.
Young Americans, regardless of their partisanship, overwhelmingly want to see action on climate change by the international community, U.S. government, and private sector. Around three-quarters of young Americans, including more than two-thirds of young Americans who identify as Republicans, say that they want to see each of the following actions:
-Governments around the world collaborate to execute a plan to prevent the worst impacts of climate change (77% overall, 70% among Republicans)
-The U.S. government carries out a plan to prevent the worst impacts of climate change (77% overall, 69% among Republicans)
-Corporations and industries make major reductions in their contribution to climate change (77% overall, 68% among Republicans)
Large majorities say that they will take personal action to address climate change, including voting for pro-climate candidates. Nearly three-quarters of young Americans (73%), including 62% of young Republicans, say that they are likely to vote for political candidates who support aggressive policies to reduce climate change.
Additionally, around two-thirds of young Americans say that they are likely to decrease their own or their family’s contribution to climate change (68%), choose to work for employers who show commitment to sustainability and reducing their climate impact (67%), and stop buying products and services that contribute to climate change (67%).
Young Americans express clear anger at the government over its handling of climate change, with most saying that they feel “failed”, “betrayed”, and “ignored” by the government’s response. “Ignored” and “angered” are the two most common emotions that young Americans say that they feel in response to the U.S. government’s handling of climate change, while few feel proud or hopeful:
-Ignored – 74%
-Angry – 66%
-Afraid – 63%
-Abandoned – 62%
-Ashamed – 60%
-Hopeful – 29%
-Protected – 24%
-Reassured – 21%
-Proud – 20%
Further, when it comes to the U.S. government’s response to climate change, large majorities of young Americans say that the government is doing each of the following:
-Failing young Americans – 82%
-Betraying you and/or future generations – 76%
-Dismissing people’s distress – 75%
-Lying about the effectiveness of the actions they’re taking – 75%
While research indicates that a certain amount of anger about climate change is helpful for spurring individual action, it’s important not to let these negative emotions boil over into full-blown despair or resignation. As advocates, we therefore need to provide clear calls to action for young Americans to help them channel their frustrations and stay engaged in the fight.
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