Environmental Polling Roundup – October 21st, 2022
HEADLINES
- Green 2.0 – The majority of voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who treats climate change as a top priority; voters of color are especially likely to say that climate change is important to them (Release, Memo, Deck)
- [Young People] Data for Progress – Overwhelming majorities of young Americans are concerned about climate change, extreme weather, and pollution impacting their communities; less than one-third say that the U.S. is on the right track in addressing climate change (Release, Crosstabs)
- [Latinos] Axios + Telemundo + Ipsos – Climate change ranks among the top issue priorities for Latinos, and the majority support the Inflation Reduction Act (Release, Topline)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- “Climate voters” are poised to have a big impact in the midterm elections. A new survey form Green 2.0 finds that more likely midterm voters name climate change as the most important issue facing the country than any other issues besides inflation and the economy, and The Economist/YouGov similarly find that inflation and the economy are the only issues that rank ahead of climate change and the environment when Americans are asked to choose their number one issue. Green 2.0 also finds that a clear majority of voters are more likely to vote for candidates for Congress who treat climate change as one of their top three priorities.
- Voters of color are particularly likely to be feeling the effects of climate change and prioritizing it as an issue. Green 2.0’s poll finds that most voters recognize that climate change has had some kind of impact on their region or community, and voters of color are particularly likely to say that climate change has had a “major impact” on their area. The survey also finds that half of all Americans, and majorities of voters of color, say it is “very important” to them that the U.S. addresses climate change.
- Americans are receptive to messaging both on the negative consequences of climate change and the positive impacts of climate action. Green 2.0 finds that climate messages with a positive tone, including messages that highlight the health and cost savings benefits of climate action, rank on par with the most persuasive messages that focus on negative consequences such as food insecurity, climate displacement, deaths, and heat waves. Identifying persuasive positive messages about climate action is important to combat fatalism and disconnection from the issue, and new polling from Data for Progress finds that young Americans in particular are struggling to see signs of progress on the issue.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change + Midterms] 62% of voters say they are more likely to support a candidate for Congress who says that addressing climate change is one of their top three priorities, including even larger percentages of AAPI voters (75% more likely), Black voters (71% more likely), and Hispanic voters (69% more likely) [Green 2.0]
- [Voters of Color + Climate Impacts] 70% of voters recognize that climate change has had an impact on their region or community, including 86% of AAPI voters, 76% of Latino voters, and 72% of Black voters [Green 2.0]
- [Voters of Color + Climate Action] Half of voters (50%) say that it is “very important” that the United States addresses climate change, including majorities of Hispanic voters (64%), AAPI voters (59%), and Black voters (53%) [Green 2.0]
- [Young People + Climate Action] 64% of young Americans aged 18-29 believe that increasing domestic production of clean energy like wind and solar would be effective towards addressing climate change [Data for Progress]
- [Young People + Climate Action] 62% of young Americans aged 18-29 believe that enforcing stricter rules around corporations’ climate pollution would be effective towards addressing climate change [Data for Progress]
- [Latinos + Inflation Reduction Act] 62% of Latinos support the Inflation Reduction Act after reading a brief description of it [Axios/Telemundo/Ipsos]
- [Latinos + Issue Priority] More Latinos name climate change as one of the national issues that is “most worrying” to them than any other issue besides inflation, crime/gun violence, and immigration [Axios/Telemundo/Ipsos]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue besides inflation/prices and jobs/economy [Economist/YouGov]
- [Issue Priority] More likely midterm voters name climate change as the most important issue facing the country than any other issue besides inflation and jobs/economic growth [Green 2.0]
FULL ROUNDUP
Green 2.0
The majority of voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who treats climate change as a top priority; voters of color are especially likely to say that climate change is important to them (Release, Memo, Deck)
This national survey of likely midterm voters included oversamples (additional interviews to obtain more reliable estimates of attitudes among specific demographic groups) of Black, Latino, and AAPI voters, producing some valuable insights into how voters of color are prioritizing climate change relative to the rest of the electorate.
The poll finds that climate change is an issue of intense priority across the electorate: nearly four in five voters (78%) say that it’s at least “somewhat” important that the U.S. addresses climate change, including half (50%) who say it’s “very important.” Latino voters (64% “very important”), AAPI voters (59% “very important”), and Black voters (53% “very important”) are all particularly likely to have strong feelings about the importance of the issue.
Additionally, when asked to choose the single “most important issue” facing America right now, more voters cite climate change as the country’s biggest problem than any other issue besides inflation and jobs/economic growth.
The survey also shows that most voters recognize that climate change is impacting them at the local level, and voters of color are particularly likely to be feeling the effects of climate change. Among voters overall, 70% say that climate change is having some kind of impact on their region or community, and this percentage rises even higher among AAPI voters (86%), Latino voters (76%), and Black voters (72%).
Voters of color are especially likely to say that climate change is having a major impact where they live. About one-quarter of all voters (27%) report that climate change has had a “major impact” on their region or community, including roughly three in ten Black voters (31%) and roughly four in ten AAPI (41%) and Latino voters (38%).
Consistent with the priority they place on addressing climate change and the personal impacts they’re feeling, the poll finds that likely midterm voters are more inclined to support candidates for Congress who prioritize climate change. Just over three in five voters (62%) say that they are more likely to support a candidate for Congress who makes addressing climate change one of their top three priorities.
Voters of color are particularly likely to reward candidates who prioritize climate change, as roughly seven in ten Black (71%) and Latino voters (69%) and three-quarters of AAPI voters (75%) are more likely to vote for candidates who make climate change a top priority.
The poll also tested various rationales for supporting candidates who want to address climate change, and interestingly found that the most effective messages that focus on the positive impacts of climate action are about equally as persuasive as the most effective messages about the negative consequences of climate change. In other words, the poll finds that messages that inspire hope and confidence can work about as well as the more common “doom and gloom”-style messaging about the threats of climate change.
Positive rationales that tested particularly well included a message about the health benefits of climate action (“Reducing emissions through a shift to clean energy will improve air quality, reducing cases of asthma and other respiratory illnesses that result from high levels of ozone and airborne particulates”) and cost savings for households (“Studies show that shifting to more efficient and renewable sources of energy would save U.S. households as much as $321 billion annually in energy costs”).
The top-performing negative rationales include messages about how climate change is expected to negatively affect the stability of our food supply, cause huge numbers of deaths and displacements globally, and make dangerous heat waves more frequent.
All of the best-performing messages in the survey, whether positive or negative in tone, were found “very convincing” by about four in ten voters (39%-43%).
The poll also asked a novel question about diversity within climate-focused organizations, and found that most voters – including particularly large percentages of voters of color – believe that the groups working to address climate change should be racially and ethnically diverse. Just over two-thirds (68%) say that it’s important for these types of groups to be racially and ethnically diverse, including 86% of Black voters, 73% of AAPI voters, and 70% of Latino voters.
[Young People] Data for Progress
Overwhelming majorities of young Americans are concerned about climate change, extreme weather, and pollution impacting their communities; less than one-third say that the U.S. is on the right track in addressing climate change (Release, Crosstabs)
This new survey of Americans aged 18-29 affirms that younger Americans are acutely concerned about the personal threats posed by pollution and climate change.
Roughly three-quarters say they are concerned about the impacts of air and water pollution (77%, including 42% who are “very concerned”), climate change (73%, including 45% who are very concerned”), and extreme weather events and natural disasters (73%, including 38% who are “very concerned”) on their community.
When asked how specifically they expect climate change to impact their lives, young Americans are particularly likely to believe that climate change will impact their health (63%), where they live (60%), and their finances (52%). Meanwhile, young Americans are split on whether climate change will impact their decision to have children (42% agree / 41% disagree).
The survey also shows that young Americans suffer from a serious lack of self-efficacy and optimism about addressing climate change. Just 37% say they’re at least “somewhat” optimistic that our society can meaningfully address climate change, and only 42% believe that their own personal actions can at least “somewhat” slow or reduce the effects of climate change.
Young Americans are particularly discouraged about climate action at the national level, as less than one-quarter (23%) believe that the United States is on the “right track” in addressing the issue.
This all suggests that younger people could benefit from more messaging about progress on addressing climate change, to prevent their pessimism from turning into fatalism. To that end, the survey finds that news about the Inflation Reduction Act isn’t breaking through much with younger Americans: only 13% say they’ve heard “a lot” about the legislation, but they support the IRA by an overwhelming margin (65% support / 19% oppose) after reading a brief description of it.
The survey also asked people to rate the effectiveness of various climate-friendly policies, and found that young Americans are particularly likely to believe that clean energy development and corporate accountability measures can have a positive effect. Here are the policies that the survey asked about, ranked by the percentage of young Americans who say that each will be “somewhat” or “very” effective towards addressing climate change:
- Increasing domestic production of clean energy like wind and solar (64%)
- Enforcing stricter rules around corporations’ climate pollution (62%)
- Creating a federal Civilian Climate Corps to hire young people for jobs that address climate change (56%)
- Banning new oil and gas leasing on public lands and waters (51%)
- Declaring a national climate emergency (48%)
[Latinos] Axios + Telemundo + Ipsos
Climate change ranks among the top issue priorities for Latinos, and the majority support the Inflation Reduction Act (Release, Topline)
This new survey of Latinos nationwide finds that climate change ranks high on Latinos’ issue priority list.
When asked to choose the three issues that are “most worrying to them,” climate change (25%) ranks on par with immigration (26%) as Latinos’ next-biggest issue concern after inflation (37%) and crime/gun violence (36%).
The survey also finds that Latinos support the Inflation Reduction Act by a nearly two-to-one margin (62% support / 32% oppose) after reading a brief description of the bill, which describes it as “a bill recently signed into law by President Biden which includes corporate tax hikes, climate change measures, and changes to the Affordable Care Act.
Related Resources
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