Environmental Polling Roundup – October 18, 2024
HEADLINES
Data for Progress – Most voters say that they’re concerned about the possible rollback of climate policies and other Project 2025 proposals [Article, Crosstabs]
Fox News – Abortion and climate change remain VP Harris’s biggest issue advantages over Trump [Article, Topline, Crosstabs]
The Economist + YouGov – Nearly half of Americans know someone who was directly affected by Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton; only around one-quarter have heard much about the Inflation Reduction Act [Hurricane Topline, Hurricane Crosstabs, IRA Topline + Crosstabs]
[Florida] Florida Atlantic University – Even before recent hurricanes, Floridians said that they were more likely to vote for candidates who fight climate change [Website, Press Release, Topline]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Climate change remains one of VP Harris’s biggest issue advantages over Trump, including among swing groups. A new poll by Fox News (which actually hires a reputable and bipartisan duo of polling firms to conduct its polls) finds that voters trust Harris by a double-digit margin over Trump to address climate change, making it one of the largest issue advantages for either candidate. This finding is consistent with polling since Harris entered the race, which has regularly found that voters trust her more on abortion and climate change than on other issues. Additionally, Fox News finds that Harris has particularly large advantages on climate change among some of the key swing groups likely to decide the election – including independents and suburban women.
Climate change was already a highly salient issue in impacted areas before Hurricanes Helene and Milton hit. In a poll conducted shortly before the hurricanes, Florida Atlantic University found that most Floridians said that they were concerned about the increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes. Additionally, most Floridians said that climate change made them concerned about being able to afford and maintain their homeowners’ insurance. And the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton on the public consciousness is likely to extend far beyond the areas that were directly hit, as The Economist and YouGov find that nearly half of Americans know someone who was impacted by at least one of the hurricanes.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change] 58% of Americans recognize that climate change is happening as a result of human activity [The Economist + YouGov]
- [Climate Action] 62% of voters are concerned about the possible rollback of laws combating climate change [Data for Progress]
- [Florida] 75% of Floridians, including 68% of Florida Republicans, agree that the state should diversify its energy sources to include more electricity from renewable sources [Florida Atlantic University]
- [Florida] 68% of Floridians agree that the state should do more to address the impacts of climate change [Florida Atlantic University]
- [Florida] 52% of Floridians say that they are more likely to vote for a candidate with a record of addressing climate change [Florida Atlantic University]
FULL ROUNDUP
Data for Progress – Most voters say that they’re concerned about the possible rollback of climate policies and other Project 2025 proposals [Article, Crosstabs]
Most voters are concerned about rolling back climate laws. The poll asked about 14 different proposals that are part of Project 2025, finding that majorities of voters are concerned about each one.
Three in five voters (62%) are concerned about rolling back policies that are aimed at preventing climate change, including roughly two in five (39%) who are “very” concerned about possible rollbacks to climate laws.
Voters are hearing about Project 2025, and the information breaking through is overwhelmingly negative. Around three-quarters of voters (77%) say that they’ve heard about Project 2025, though most (55%) say that they’ve heard only “a little” about it.
Those who have heard about Project 2025 are six times as likely to say that they’ve heard mostly negative information about the plan (63%) than to say that they’ve heard mostly positive things (10%) about it.
Fox News – Abortion and climate change remain VP Harris’s biggest issue advantages over Trump [Article, Topline, Crosstabs]
Voters trust Harris over Trump by wider margins on climate change and abortion than on any other issues. As has consistently been the case since she entered the race, abortion and climate change remain Harris’s strongest issue advantages over Trump.
When asked who they think will better handle a variety of issues, registered voters trust Harris over Trump by double-digit margins on handling abortion and climate change. Meanwhile, voters trust Trump by wide margins on handling immigration and the conflicts in the Middle East:
-Abortion – Harris +14
-Climate change – Harris +12
-Health care – Harris +8
-Election integrity – Harris +3
-Supreme Court nominations – Trump +1
-Taxes – Trump +4
-Guns – Trump +6
-Crime – Trump +8
-The economy – Trump +8
-Israel and the war in the Middle East – Trump +13
-Immigration – Trump +15
Harris’s edge on climate change is even larger among key swing groups. Many of the persuadable groups that both campaigns are targeting, including independents (Harris +30), moderates (Harris +34), and suburban women (Harris +18), trust Harris by particularly wide margins on the issue of climate change.
The Economist + YouGov – Nearly half of Americans know someone who was directly affected by Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton; only around one-quarter have heard much about the Inflation Reduction Act [Hurricane Topline, Hurricane Crosstabs, IRA Topline + Crosstabs]
Nearly half of Americans know someone who was directly affected by Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton. The Economist and YouGov find that 47% of Americans know someone who was directly affected by at least one of the hurricanes.
This includes 6% who say that they were personally affected, as well as significant percentages who report that a family member (18%), close friend (17%), or acquaintance (21%) were impacted.
Most Americans continue to recognize human-caused climate change. Consistent with other polling, The Economist and YouGov find that nearly three in five Americans (58%) agree that the world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity. Meanwhile, around one-quarter (26%) believe that the world’s climate is changing because of natural patterns and only 6% deny that the world’s climate is changing at all.
The percentage who recognize human-caused climate change (58%) has ticked up by two points since The Economist and YouGov asked the same question two weeks ago (56%), which is within the margin of error for the poll but may reflect the increased salience of climate change around extreme weather events.
Americans are more familiar with the Inflation Reduction Act than with other recent economic legislation, but still only around one-quarter have heard much about it. Americans haven’t heard much about any of the major pieces of economic legislation passed under President Trump and President Biden:
-Inflation Reduction Act – 70% heard about, including 27% who have heard “a lot”
-Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act – 64% heard about, 23% heard “a lot”
-Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – 60% heard about, 19% heard “a lot”
-American Rescue Plan – 52% heard about, 16% heard “a lot”
-Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enforcement Act – 43% heard about, 12% heard “a lot”
-CHIPS and Science Act – 38% heard about, 10% heard “a lot”
To the extent that they can rate it, Americans believe that the Inflation Reduction Act has had a more positive than negative impact on the economy. Around one-third (35%) believe that the IRA has had a positive impact on the economy, compared to 22% who say that it’s had a negative impact.
An additional 17% say that the impact of the law has been neither positive nor negative, and one-quarter (26%) admit that they don’t know enough to say.
Views about the IRA continue to be driven largely by partisanship. While most Democrats say that the law has had a positive economic impact (54% positive / 8% negative), Republicans are nearly twice as likely to describe the IRA’s impact as negative than positive (22% positive / 40% negative).
[Florida] Florida Atlantic University – Even before recent hurricanes, Floridians said that they were more likely to vote for candidates who fight climate change [Website, Press Release, Topline]
Floridians recognize that climate change is happening and that it’s being caused by humans. Nearly nine in ten Floridians (88%) say that climate change is happening, including 58% who say that it’s caused largely by human activity.
Even before the recent hurricanes, Floridians had deep concerns about increasingly extreme weather events – especially hurricanes, heat, and flooding. The poll, which was fielded in early September before Hurricanes Helene and Milton, found that large majorities of Floridians were worried about all of the following weather trends:
-Temperatures rising in Florida – 70% concerned, including 40% who are “extremely” concerned
-Hurricanes becoming stronger and/or more frequent in Florida – 66% concerned, 35% “extremely”
-Flooding from rainfall becoming heavier in Florida – 65% concerned, 34% “extremely”
-Storm surge flooding near Florida’s coastline – 64% concerned, 35% “extremely”
-Florida’s rising sea levels – 61% concerned, 31% “extremely”
-Florida droughts becoming stronger and/or more frequent – 56% concerned, 24% “extremely”
Climate change is a personal issue for Floridians, as extreme weather is a common experience for residents and climate change has them concerned about their homes and Florida’s future. Most Floridians say that their household has been exposed to heat waves (65%) in the past 12 months, and more than one-third also report recent exposure to flooding (37%) and severe wind from hurricanes or tornadoes (34%) – all before Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.
Given Floridians’ frequent exposure to the impacts of climate change, it’s not surprising that the large majority of Floridians agree that climate change has them concerned about the well-being of future generations in Florida (66%). And at the personal level, most (58%) say that climate change has them concerned about their ability to afford and maintain their homeowner’s insurance.
Floridians widely support the transition to clean energy, including making solar the state’s primary energy source. Three-quarters of Floridians (75%), including two-thirds of Florida Republicans (68%), agree that the state should diversify its energy sources to include more electricity from renewable sources.
And in a state where natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity, half of Floridians (51%) choose solar as the energy source that Florida should primarily be supporting for the future – well ahead of any other energy source, including natural gas (13%).
Floridians overwhelmingly support climate action, and want to vote for candidates who will do something about it. Around two-thirds of Floridians agree that both the state government (68%) and federal government (67%) should do more to address the impacts of climate change.
Additionally, just over half of Floridians (52%) say that a candidate’s political record reducing the impacts of climate change would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Less than one in five (18%) say that they are less likely to vote for a candidate with a record of addressing climate change.
Floridians say that climate change should be taught in schools. After Governor Ron DeSantis’s administration called for the removal of climate change references in school textbooks, Floridians overwhelmingly reject the administration’s action. Nearly seven in ten (69%) agree that Florida schools should “teach the causes, consequences, and solutions to climate change in our K-12 classrooms,” with just 9% disagreeing.
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