Environmental Polling Roundup – October 16, 2026
Headlines
[Battleground Districts] Climate Power + EDF Action + LCV Action Fund + NRDC Action Fund + Utility Action Alliance – Debates on energy issues have swung in Democrats’ favor since the start of the year, and battleground voters widely oppose the Trump administration’s actions on energy when they hear about them [Website, Memo]
The Economist + YouGov – Americans who live near data centers have shifted towards Democrats more than the rest of the country [Article]
Key Takeaways
Voters oppose blocking clean energy, but how you talk about it makes a big difference. Multiple polls have shown that voters disagree with the Trump administration’s efforts to curtail clean energy, including a new poll of battleground U.S. House districts that was commissioned by Climate Power, EDF Action, LCV Action Fund, NRDC Action Fund, and the Utility Action Alliance.
They find that battleground U.S. House voters overwhelmingly oppose the Trump administration “using $4 billion in taxpayer money to pay companies to cancel and abandon new wind energy projects” (77% oppose). This action elicits much more opposition than the administration “repealing tax incentives for companies to increase U.S. clean energy production,” which is also unpopular (59% oppose).
Polling earlier this year by EDF Action similarly found that voters are particularly bothered about canceling clean energy projects that were already underway, relative to other actions like repealing tax credits. Their poll in battleground states found a 10-point difference in the intensity of opposition between the Trump administration “canceling hundreds of wind and solar projects, including many which were over 80% complete” (53% strongly oppose) and the Trump administration “eliminating tax credits that encourage the production and use of clean energy like wind and solar” (43% strongly oppose).
With voters eager for immediate action to bring down energy costs, the idea of abandoning new clean energy projects that were near completion (not to mention using taxpayer dollars to pay off companies to do so) seems to strike a particular chord.
Republicans are starting to pay a political price for their perceived support for data centers. Recent polling by Climate Power found that voters are beginning to differentiate the two parties’ positions on data centers, as they are relatively more likely to see Democrats as wanting to stop or slow data center expansion (a stance that matches voters’ own preferences) and relatively more likely to believe that Republicans want to expand data centers without additional regulations (a deeply unpopular position).
This week, the Economist provides another type of evidence that Republicans are paying a political price over data centers. Utilizing data from weekly Economist/YouGov polls, they find that Americans who live near data centers are shifting toward Democratic candidates in this year’s midterms more than the rest of the country. Even after controlling for demographic differences, their analysis shows a seven-point increase (from 54% to 61%) in intentions to vote for Democratic candidates since May among Americans who live within 2 kilometers of a data center. By comparison, they find a two-point increase in intended Democratic vote share (from 53% to 55%) over that time in the country on the whole.
Additionally, their analysis finds that 2024 Trump voters who live within 2 kilometers of a data center are about three times as likely to be supporting Democratic candidates this year (17%) than Trump voters who live further from data centers (6%).
Full Roundup
[Battleground Districts] Climate Power + EDF Action + LCV Action Fund + NRDC Action Fund + Utility Action Alliance – Debates on energy issues have swung in Democrats’ favor since the start of the year, and battleground voters widely oppose the Trump administration’s actions on energy when they hear about them [Website, Memo]
Debates on energy issues have swung in Democrats’ favor since the start of the year. Following polling last month by the Searchlight Institute that found that voters nationwide now trust Democrats over Republicans to lower energy prices and expand the energy supply, this new poll by a coalition of environmental and energy advocacy groups finds that Democrats hold similar advantages among voters in competitive U.S. House districts.
And by comparing these new results to similar battleground polling conducted earlier in the year, we can see how these debates have shifted in Democrats’ favor over the course of the year.
Below are the margins by which voters in the new battleground poll say that they trust one party over the other to handle different energy priorities, along with the shift toward Democrats since January (or, in the case of the question about gasoline and diesel costs, since May):
- Lower monthly utility bills – Democrats +11 (+15 since Jan.)
- Lower the cost of gasoline and diesel – Democrats +10 (+5 since May)
- Upgrade and improve the reliability of the electric grid – Democrats +4 (+9 since Jan.)
- Have a long-term plan to meet the country’s energy needs – Democrats +5 (+16 since Jan.)
- Make the United States energy independent – Republicans +1 (+13 since Jan.)
Part of the shift toward Democrats on these issues is likely due to a “halo effect” that isn’t specific to energy: as Trump’s approval has fallen and the generic ballot for Congress has moved considerably in Democrats’ favor, voters will naturally be more inclined to put more trust in the party that they plan on voting for.
At the same time, dissatisfaction with Trump over gas prices appears to be one of the biggest factors driving that shift in the political environment. Presidential approval ratings tend to correlate quite strongly with gas prices, and we know that energy costs have become a particular weakness for Trump and Republicans. Navigator recently found that 76% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, far outpacing disapproval with his performance as president generally (62%).
Battleground voters widely oppose the Trump administration’s actions on energy when they hear about them. Majorities of voters in these districts oppose actions that the Trump administration has taken to block the transition to clean energy, including:
- Using $4 billion in taxpayer money to pay companies to cancel and abandon new wind energy projects (23% support / 77% oppose)
- Canceling grants that were aimed at lowering utility bills by bringing new clean energy to rural communities (27% support / 73% oppose)
- Using “emergency orders” to force coal power plants to stay open, even when there are cleaner and cheaper energy options available (37% support / 63% oppose)
- Repealing tax incentives for companies to increase U.S. clean energy production (41% support / 59% oppose)
The Economist + YouGov – Americans who live near data centers have shifted towards Democrats more than the rest of the country [Article]
Americans who live near data centers have shifted towards Democrats more than the rest of the country. Americans of all political stripes have become more opposed to data centers over the past year, and recent polling shows that voters perceive Republican officeholders to be much more supportive of data centers than Democratic officeholders.
This new article by The Economist, drawing on more than a year of weekly tracking polls with YouGov, provides another type of evidence that the data center backlash is hurting Republicans’ electoral prospects. Pulling from their article:
“We matched almost 150,000 respondents from the Economist/YouGov weekly survey with their nearest data centre, using Compute Atlas, an open-source repository of such sites. Republicans are struggling nationally. But for voters living within 2km of a data centre the veer to Democrats has been even sharper.
This analysis could reflect who lives near data centres, rather than the effect of the centres themselves. So we built a model that predicts how respondents to our survey would vote based on their demographics. We found little difference in responses up until May. Since then the share of voters planning to support a Democrat in November’s midterm elections has risen from 54% to 61% among those living within 2km of a data centre. Across the country the rise has been from 53% to just 55%…
Around 17% of people living within 2km of a data centre who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 now say they would support a Democrat, compared with 6% of his voters elsewhere (a calculation that excludes undecided and third-party voters).”
In other words, even after controlling for other variables that might affect voting behavior, the communities most impacted by data centers seem to be particularly likely to be punishing Republicans for promoting them.
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