Environmental Polling Roundup – November 8, 2024
HEADLINES
Fox News + AP/NORC – Even while electing Trump, most voters said that they’re concerned about climate change and that the country should prioritize clean energy over fossil fuels; climate voters were the most reliable voting bloc for Harris [Website]
AP VoteCast – Trump voters have much less confidence in him to handle climate change than other issues [Website]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Regardless of the result, this was once again a pro-climate electorate. Fox News and AP/NORC found that around two-thirds of voters who participated in Tuesday’s election said that they were concerned about the effects of climate change in their own community. Additionally, the majority of voters said that the country should prioritize clean energy over fossil fuels.
- Voters trusted Harris over Trump on climate change, but he was able to make up for it among the voters who didn’t see a difference between the candidates. As predicted by pre-election polls, Fox News and AP/NORC found that climate change and abortion were the two issues that voters were most likely to trust Harris to handle better than Trump. And while both candidates won by large margins among the voters who trusted them more to handle climate change, around one-quarter said that they didn’t prefer one candidate over the other on the issue. Trump ended up carrying this quarter of the electorate by around 50 points. We’ll never know for sure what kind of a difference it would have made if the Harris campaign focused more on climate change, but the data shows that there was clearly room for her to draw more of a contrast on the issue.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change] 65% of voters who participated in the election said that they’re concerned about the effects of climate change in their community [Fox News + AP/NORC]
- [Clean Energy] 56% of voters who participated in the election said that the country should focus on expanding clean energy over fossil fuels [Fox News + AP/NORC]
FULL ROUNDUP
Fox News + AP/NORC – Even while electing Trump, most voters said that they’re concerned about climate change and that the country should prioritize clean energy over fossil fuels; climate voters were the most reliable voting bloc for Harris [Website]
Around two-thirds of voters said that they’re concerned about climate change. Nearly two in three voters (65%) said that they’re either “very” (37%) or “somewhat” concerned (28%) about the effects of climate change in their own community.
Harris carried the “very” concerned group by a wide margin (78%-20%), though the race was much closer among the “somewhat” concerned group (54% Harris / 44% Trump).
Trump, meanwhile, built up massive margins among voters who dismissed the problem. He carried the 19% of voters who were “not too concerned” about climate change by 60 points (79%-19%) and won the 15% of voters who were “not at all concerned” about climate change by 88 points (93%-5%).
Most voters said that the country should be prioritizing clean energy over fossil fuels. By a 56%-43% margin, voters who participated in the election said that the U.S. should put more focus on “expanding use of alternative energy, such as solar and wind” (56%) rather than “expanding production of fossil fuels, such as oil and gas” (43%).
Trump did better with voters who prioritize fossil fuels than Harris did with voters who prioritize clean energy. Harris won by a 50-point margin (74%-24%) among the 56% of voters who said that the country should prioritize clean energy. However, Trump won by an even larger margin of 66 points (82%-16%) among the smaller group of voters who said that the country should prioritize fossil fuels.
Climate voters supported Harris more decisively than any other issue group. The Fox News and AP/NORC poll provided nine different options for voters to name as the most important issue facing the country, with climate change falling in the middle of the list as 7% said it was their top issue:
- The economy and jobs – 39%
- Immigration – 20%
- Abortion – 11%
- Health care – 8%
- Climate change – 7%
- Crime – 4%
- Gun policy – 4%
- Racism – 4%
- Foreign policy – 3%
These climate voters played an outsized role in keeping the race competitive, as no other issue group voted as overwhelmingly for either candidate as climate voters did for Harris.
Below are the vote margins among the groups of voters who named each issue as their top priority:
- The economy and jobs (39% of voters) – Trump +24
- Immigration (20%) – Trump +77
- Abortion (11%) – Harris +71
- Health care (8%) – Harris +59
- Climate change (7%) – Harris +80
- Crime (4%) – Even
- Gun policy (4%) – Harris +67
- Racism (4%) – Harris +76
- Foreign policy (3%) – Harris +14
Voters ended up trusting Harris by a wide margin over Trump on climate change. As predicted by pre-election polls, climate change and abortion were the two clearest issue advantages for Harris. Voters said that they trusted her by an 18-point margin over Trump to handle climate change (47%-29%) and by a 17-point margin to handle abortion policy (51%-34%).
There is evidence that clearer definition on climate change would have helped Harris, as voters who didn’t see a difference between the candidates on the issue overwhelmingly supported Trump. Both candidates naturally earned overwhelming margins among the voters who trusted them more to handle climate change, though Trump saw fewer defections: 97% of voters who said that they trusted Trump more to handle the issue voted for him, while 90% who trusted Harris more to handle the issue voted for her.
Roughly one-quarter of voters said that they either trusted the candidates equally (9%) or didn’t trust either candidate (15%) to deal with climate change, and this segment represents one of the missed opportunities for the Harris campaign. Voters who didn’t trust one candidate over the other on climate change swung decisively for Trump, as he won by a 47-point margin (72%-25%) among the 9% who trusted both candidates equally and by a 52-point margin (73%-21%) among the 15% of voters who didn’t trust either candidate on climate change.
AP VoteCast – Trump voters have much less confidence in him to handle climate change than other issues [Website]
Trump’s win should not be seen as an endorsement of his climate denialism. The AP VoteCast poll finds that, even among Trump voters, there is considerable doubt about his approach to climate change.
While 90%+ of Trump voters say that he is better able to handle most of the issues that were included in the survey, climate change ranks at the very bottom with just over half of his voters (56%) saying that he is better able to handle the issue than Harris:
- Immigration – 95% of Trump voters trust Trump to handle
- The economy – 94%
- The situation in the Middle East – 91%
- Crime – 90%
- Health care – 78%
- Abortion policy – 66%
- Climate change – 56%
As this data shows, many Trump voters ended up supporting him despite having clear reservations about his approaches to climate change and abortion.
Related Resources
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