Environmental Polling Roundup – November 18th, 2022
HEADLINES
- Climate Power – Taking strong action on climate, investing in clean energy, and cracking down on oil companies’ price gouging were all winning positions in the midterms (Deck)
- 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll – Midterm voters of color are the most likely to view climate change as an “urgent problem” and to say that the Inflation Reduction Act was a motivating factor in their vote (Microsite with links to toplines + crosstabs, National Deck, Latino Voter Deck)
- Navigator – After abortion, climate change ranked as a top rationale for voters who supported Democrats this year (Release, Deck)
- The Economist + YouGov – More Americans named climate change as their top issue in the midterms than any other issue besides inflation, abortion, and the economy; climate was especially important in motivating young voters (Topline, Crosstabs)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Climate action was a political winner in the midterms. New polling from Climate Power shows that midterm voters sided with candidates who supported climate action over candidates who opposed it, and voters also sided more with candidates who wanted to crack down on oil companies’ greed and transition to cleaner energy sources over candidates who wanted to increase drilling on public lands and in coastal areas. Additionally, the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll found that the majority of midterm voters rated climate change as an “urgent problem” for the country.
- Key constituencies, including voters of color and young voters, were especially motivated by climate change in the election. The 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll found that Black and Latino midterm voters were especially likely to say that climate change is an “urgent problem” for the country, and The Economist and YouGov found that climate change and the environment ranked among the top issues after abortion for Americans aged 18-29.
- Opponents’ attempts to make the Inflation Reduction Act a political liability fell flat. Both Climate Power and the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll found that overwhelming majorities of midterm voters supported the IRA. Additionally, analyses of midterm election ads by the Washington Post and E&E News found that the IRA was not a focus of attack ads against incumbents who supported it.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [IRA + Election] 73% of midterm voters say they support the Inflation Reduction Act when it’s described as “the largest investment ever in clean energy in an effort to reduce toxic air and carbon pollution,” including 90% of Black voters and 83% of Latino voters [2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll]
- [Climate Change + Election] 62% of midterm voters say that climate change is an “urgent problem we must address now,” including 77% of Black voters and 68% of Latino voters [2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll]
- [Climate Change + Election] By a 58%-42% margin, midterm voters agreed more with Democratic candidates who supported strong climate action over Republican candidates who opposed strong climate action [Climate Power]
- [Clean Energy + Election] By a 57%-43% margin, midterm voters agreed more with Democratic candidates who wanted to crack down on oil company price gouging and speed up the transition to lower-cost clean energy sources over Republican candidates who wanted to increase oil and gas development [Climate Power]
- [Issue Priority + Election] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the issue that “mattered most” for them in deciding how to vote in the midterm election than any other issue aside from inflation/prices, abortion, and jobs/economy [Economist/YouGov]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them generally than any other issue aside from inflation/prices and jobs/economy [Economist/YouGov]
FULL ROUNDUP
Climate Power
Taking strong action on climate, investing in clean energy, and cracking down on oil companies’ price gouging were all winning positions in the midterms (Deck)
This midterm exit-style poll sponsored by Climate Power (based on interviews with over 1,800 midterm voters on Election Eve and Election Day) shows that midterm voters sided with candidates who want to combat climate change and transition to clean energy.
The poll finds that nearly two-thirds of midterm voters (64%) believe that climate change is either a “crisis” or “very serious problem,” including the overwhelming majority of voters who cast ballots for Democrats for Congress (91%) as well as a substantial minority of voters who supported Republicans for Congress (38%).
And when presented with stances about climate change and clean energy that were typical of Democratic and Republican candidates this cycle, midterm voters prefer the typically Democratic positions by double-digit margins.
By a 58%-42% margin, midterm voters agreed more with “most Democratic candidates [who] supported strong action by the government to address and combat climate change” over “most Republican candidates [who] opposed strong action by the government to address and combat climate change.”
Voters also preferred a typically Democratic stance on how to deal with high gas prices over a typically Republican stance. By a 57%-43% margin, midterm voters agree more with “most Democratic candidates [who] supported policies to crack down on price gouging and profiteering by the major oil companies and policies to speed up the transition to lower-cost energy sources to reduce our reliance on oil” over “most Republican candidates [who] supported policies to increase oil and gas development in the United States, including on public lands and in coastal areas, and to build more oil and gas pipelines.”
The poll additionally finds that midterm voters widely support the Inflation Reduction Act when it’s framed as clean energy legislation with the description below.
“As you may know, President Biden signed legislation passed by the Congress this year that makes major new investments to expand the development and production of lower-cost clean energy in the United States, including wind and solar power. This legislation also provides new incentives and rebates to help businesses and homes become more energy efficient. Do you favor or oppose this legislation?”
After reading this description of the bill, midterm voters support it by a greater than two-to-one margin (68% favor / 32% oppose). And despite the fact that the poll tied the legislation to President Biden, nearly two in five voters who cast ballots for Republican congressional candidates (39%) say they support the IRA – underlining the broad appeal of the bill’s substance.
2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll
Midterm voters of color are the most likely to view climate change as an “urgent problem” and to say that the Inflation Reduction Act was a motivating factor in their vote (Microsite with links to toplines + crosstabs, National Deck, Latino Voter Deck)
In partnership with several progressive advocacy groups, the African American Research Collaborative (AARC) surveyed 12,200 midterm voters between October 26th and November 7th. In-depth results, including breakdowns by state and by racial and ethnic groups, are available at the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll microsite linked above.
Consistent with other public polling, the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll finds that the midterm electorate views climate change as an urgent issue. Over three in five midterm voters nationwide (62%) agree that “climate change is an urgent problem we must address now by investing in clean energy, cutting pollution, and cutting energy costs.”
By comparison, just 20% agree most with a statement that “climate change is a problem, but we can wait to address it later” and only 18% agree most with a statement that “climate change is being overblown and we do not need government action on this issue.”
Midterm voters of color are particularly likely to agree that climate change is an “urgent problem” that must be addressed now, including over three-quarters of Black voters (77%) and over two-thirds of Latino voters (68%).
The 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll additionally found that the midterm electorate overwhelmingly supports the Inflation Reduction Act. When described as legislation that “makes the largest investment ever in clean energy in an effort to reduce toxic air and carbon pollution,” nearly three-quarters of midterm voters (73%) say they support the bill – including 90% of Black voters, 83% of Latino voters, and 86% of AAPI voters.
The poll also provided a more in-depth description of the Inflation Reduction Act using the language below before asking how big of a factor the bill was in motivating people to vote.
“Congress passed and President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act which will lower health care and energy costs, increase production of clean energy, reduce climate pollution, create millions of good-paying jobs, and cut the deficit by making corporations pay their fair share in taxes and does not raise taxes on Americans making less than $400,000.”
When prompted with this description, 36% of voters – including 44% of Black voters and 42% of Latino voters – said that the Inflation Reduction Act was the “primary motivation for [them] to vote this year.”
Navigator
After abortion, climate change ranked as a top rationale for voters who supported Democrats this year (Release, Deck)
The latest Navigator poll surveyed 5,013 midterm voters – including those who had already voted or planned to vote – between November 1st and November 14th.
Like other exit-style polls we’ve seen, the Navigator poll finds that abortion and economic issues were at the forefront of voters’ minds in the election. When asked to choose up to four issues that were most important to them in deciding who to vote for, voters were more likely to say that inflation (45%), abortion (30%), jobs and the economy (30%), and wages and the cost of living (26%) were top priorities for them than any other issue.
While climate change and the environment (selected by 17% as a top issue) was not among the very top-ranking midterm issues overall, it over-indexed in importance among key electoral subgroups. Among voters who supported Democrats in the election, abortion (48%) was the only issue that ranked ahead of climate change and the environment (31%) in importance. For these voters, climate change and the environment was a roughly equally large factor in deciding how to vote as democracy (30%) and inflation (28%).
Climate change also ranked as a top issue for nearly one-quarter of Hispanic (23%) and AAPI voters (23%).
Like other pollsters, Navigator also finds that climate change was a decisive factor in keeping the election competitive for Democrats. Among the 17% who named climate change as a top issue, 83% voted for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House.
Additionally, when asked whether various issues were “more of a reason to support Democrats” or “more of a reason to support Republicans,” climate change and the environment (46%) ranked among the most compelling reasons to vote for Democrats in the election – on par with the cost of quality health care and prescription drugs (47%), the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade (47%), the future of Social Security and Medicare (46%), and the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th (46%).
The Economist + YouGov
More Americans named climate change as their top issue in the midterms than any other issue besides inflation, abortion, and the economy; climate was especially important in motivating young voters (Topline, Crosstabs)
The latest national tracking poll from The Economist and YouGov provides further evidence that climate voters were a powerful voting bloc in the midterms.
When asked to choose just one issue that mattered most to them in deciding how to vote in the midterms, more voters named climate change and the environment as their number one voting issue (8%) than any other issue aside from inflation/prices (26%), abortion (17%), and jobs and the economy (10%).
Among Americans aged 18-29, climate change and the environment (12%) ranked on par with inflation/prices (13%) and jobs and the economy (10%) as the top issue in the midterms after abortion (23%).
Related Resources
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 6th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 23rd, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 27th, 2021
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