Environmental Polling Roundup – November 17, 2023
HEADLINES
Fossil Free Media + Data for Progress – Voters want to limit gas exports and are amenable to several arguments against new exports, including arguments about costs, climate damage, pollution, and fossil fuel dependence [Article, Crosstabs]
Yale + GMU + UCSB + Rewiring America – The majority of Americans say that they want to live in a home where all or most appliances are electric [Article]
Navigator – Voters continue to widely support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law two years after it was signed into law; replacing lead-contaminated pipes is the single most popular part of the legislation [Release, Deck]
Pew – Americans’ trust in scientists is declining, but the overwhelming majority still have confidence that scientists act in the best interests of the public [Article, Full Report, Topline]
[GA Latino Voters] Climate Power + BSP Research + GALEO – Latino voters in Georgia widely prioritize action on climate change, but are hearing little about the Biden administration’s climate legislation or about new clean energy projects [Memo]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Voters are wary about gas exports. Fossil Free Media and Data for Progress find that voters want the Biden administration to slow down on approving any new gas export projects like CP2. Majorities want the U.S. to limit gas exports, and voters are particularly swayed by the argument that the country can’t afford to be increasing gas exports at a time when domestic energy prices are so high.
- Americans are not nearly as wedded to gas appliances as media narratives suggest. Newly released polling from Yale, GMU, UCSB, and Rewiring America affirms that the majority of Americans want to live in a home with all or mostly electric-powered appliances. In contrast to the media’s “culture war” framing of the gas stove debate, polls consistently show that Americans – including Republicans – prefer electric appliances over gas-powered appliances in their homes.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Electrification] 60% of Americans say that they would prefer to live in a home where all or most major appliances are powered by electricity [Yale + GMU + UCSB + Rewiring America]
- [Infrastructure] Voters support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law / IIJA by a nearly three-to-one margin (65% support / 22% oppose) after reading a brief description of it [Navigator]
- [Lead Pipes] 87% of voters support replacing and upgrading water pipes that are contaminated with lead as part of the infrastructure legislation that was passed by President Biden and Congress [Navigator]
- [Gas Exports] 62% of voters support pausing all new natural gas export projects until proper reviews are completed on these projects’ impacts on local communities, the environment, and energy prices [Fossil Free Media + Data for Progress]
- [Gas Exports] 60% of voters support the Biden administration taking measures to limit the amount of gas that the United States exports to other countries [Fossil Free Media + Data for Progress]
FULL ROUNDUP
Fossil Free Media + Data for Progress – Voters want to limit gas exports and are amenable to several arguments against new exports, including arguments about costs, climate damage, pollution, and fossil fuel dependence [Article, Crosstabs]
Fossil Free Media and Data or Progress find that voters are not at all enthused about liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, for a variety of reasons.
By a two-to-one margin (60% support / 30% oppose), voters support the Biden administration “taking measures to limit the amount of natural gas America exports to other countries.” Young voters, who vocally opposed the Biden administration’s actions in allowing the Willow project to move forward, support the Biden administration taking measures to limit gas exports by a greater than three-to-one margin (62% support / 19% oppose among young voters aged 18-29).
And with a looming decision from the Department of Energy about granting an export license to the the Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) project in Louisiana, it’s intuitive to voters across the political spectrum that the federal government should pause new natural gas export projects “until their impacts on local communities, the environment, and energy prices are properly assessed.”
By a greater than two-to-one margin (62% support / 28% oppose), voters support “pausing all natural gas export projects until the proper reviews are completed.” Roughly three-quarters of Democratic voters (76% support / 16% oppose) and just over half of Republican voters (52% support / 37% oppose) support a pause on new gas export projects, as do more than three in five young voters aged 18-29 (64% support / 21% oppose).
In terms of messaging, Fossil Free Media and Data for Progress find that voters are amenable to arguments against CP2 based on energy prices, the pollution of local communities, fossil fuel dependence, and climate change. More than three in five voters (61%-68%) rate each of these four statements as at least “somewhat” convincing reasons to oppose CP2:
- Increasing gas exports pits overseas buyers against U.S. consumers, raising energy prices for things like home heating across the country (68% convincing, 25% “very” convincing)
- Gas export facilities pollute the communities where they’re located, which is why many residents near CP2 oppose its construction (64% convincing, 24% “very” convincing)
- Approving more gas export facilities only deepens the United States’ dependence on fossil fuels at a time when we should be transitioning to cleaner energy sources (62% convincing, 23% “very” convincing)
- CP2 will be a major climate polluter, with greenhouse gas emissions greater than two million gas-powered cars (61% convincing, 24% “very” convincing)
The polling indicates that messaging on CP2 should be tailored to particular audiences. Young voters, for example, are relatively more persuaded by messaging about the project’s climate impacts while Republican voters are most receptive to messaging about potential price impacts.
That said, the poll shows that advocates should welcome a debate about the impacts of gas exports on energy prices. In a head-to-head experiment, Fossil Free Media and Data for Progress tested the argument that the United States can’t afford to export more gas against two of the common arguments in favor of LNG exports. In both instances, voters overwhelmingly side with the argument against gas exports:
- By a 63%-28% margin, voters agree more with the argument that “the United States cannot afford to export more natural gas at a time when energy prices are already high here at home” (63%) than an argument that “the United States should allow for more natural gas to be exported so that other countries are less reliant on nations like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran for their energy needs” (28%)
- By a 58%-30% margin, voters agree more with the argument that “the United States cannot afford to export more natural gas at a time when energy prices are already high here at home” (58%) than an argument that “the United States should allow for more natural gas to be exported to support jobs in the United States” (30%)
Yale + GMU + UCSB + Rewiring America – The majority of Americans say that they want to live in a home where all or most appliances are electric [Article]
The “gas stove debate” that bubbled up at the start of the year created some false conventional wisdom – often repeated by the media – that Americans are wedded to their gas appliances. In reality, electric stoves are already more common than gas stoves in the U.S. and Americans, regardless of their partisanship, tend to say that they’re more likely to buy an electric stove than a gas stove in the future. (Gas stoves are also much less common in Southern states, where the housing stock tends to be newer.)
This recent polling, conducted by Yale and GMU in collaboration with UC-Santa Barbara and Rewiring America, affirms that the majority of Americans want to live in homes with all or mostly electric appliances. When given the choice (and asked to assume that costs and features are the same), three in five (60%) say that they want to live in a home where all major appliances or most electric appliances are powered by electricity.
A more detailed breakdown shows that:
- 31% prefer a home in which all major appliances (stove, heating system, water heater, etc.) are powered by electricity
- 29% prefer a home in which most major appliances (heating system, water heater, etc.) are powered by electricity, but which has a gas stove for cooking
- 21% prefer a home in which most or all major appliances (stove, heating system, water heater, etc.) are powered by natural gas, propane, or oil
- 18% don’t know or have no preference
Taken together, the data shows that about half of Americans prefer gas stoves and only about one in five want to use fossil fuels for the majority of their home cooking and heating.
The results also show some clear partisan differences, though partisans aren’t as diametrically opposed as the “culture war” framing around gas appliances suggests. The poll finds that three-quarters of liberal Democrats (75%) and half of conservative Republicans (50%) prefer to live in homes where all or most major appliances are powered by electricity.
Navigator – Voters continue to widely support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law two years after it was signed into law; replacing lead-contaminated pipes is the single most popular part of the legislation [Release, Deck]
The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law / IIJA, like the IRA, remains enduringly popular in polls heading into President Biden’s re-election year.
Navigator finds that voters support President Biden’s signature infrastructure legislation by an overwhelming margin (65% support / 22% oppose) when it’s described as “an infrastructure plan to improve roads and bridges, expand power infrastructure, increase passenger and rail access, and improve water infrastructure” that was passed by “President Biden and a bipartisan group of lawmakers.”
The infrastructure law enjoys the support of nearly nine in ten Democrats (89%), while independent voters support it by a two-to-one margin (52% support / 25% oppose) and Republican voters are split about evenly (43% support / 41% oppose).
And in terms of specific policies, Navigator finds that replacing lead-contaminated pipes is the single most popular aspect of the infrastructure law. Nearly nine in ten voters (87%) support the infrastructure law’s provision to replace and upgrade water pipes that are contaminated with lead, including three in five (62%) who “strongly” support this provision.
Provisions to build and repair roads and bridges (86% support, 51% support “strongly”), upgrade and repair electric power grids (82% support, 51% support “strongly”), and expand high speed internet to all American households (77% support, 49% support “strongly”) additionally earn particularly strong support.
The majority of voters (54% support / 37% oppose) also support the law’s provision to create “infrastructure for electric vehicles,” including replacing existing school buses with electric buses and creating new electric vehicle charging stations.
Pew – Americans’ trust in scientists is declining, but the overwhelming majority still have confidence that scientists act in the best interests of the public [Article, Full Report, Topline]
Pew has measured a decline in Americans’ trust in scientists over the past few years, as the COVID-19 pandemic has fueled greater partisan polarization in Americans’ views of science generally.
About three-quarters of Americans (73%) now say that they have at least “a fair amount” of confidence in scientists to act in the best interests of the public, which represents a 14-point decline since April 2020 (87%).
Democrats (86%) are 25 points more likely than Republicans (61%) to say that they have at least “a fair amount” of confidence in scientists to act in the public’s best interest, as the share of Republicans expressing at least “a fair amount” of confidence in scientists has dropped by 24 points since April 2020 while the share of Democrats expressing at least “a fair amount” of confidence in scientists has declined by five points in that timespan.
Additionally, only around one-quarter of Americans (23%) now say that they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists to act in the public’s best interests – representing a 16-point decline since April 2020 (39%).
The survey also shows a slight weakening in scientific trust among Democrats since before the COVID-19 pandemic (37% now say that they have “a great deal” of trust in scientists, down from 43% before the pandemic in January 2019), following a surge in Democrats’ stated trust in scientists amid the initial response to COVID-19 in 2020. In general, Pew’s data indicates that Democrats’ trust in scientists is reverting back to around pre-pandemic levels while Republicans’ trust in scientists has followed a more consistent and negative trendline in recent years.
As far as the implications for environmental advocates, declining trust in scientists is certainly a worrying trend but it’s worth keeping in mind that large majorities of Americans from both parties continue to express trust that scientists are acting in the public interest.
We continue to recommend that advocates communicate about the scientific consensus on climate change, as polls consistently show that scientists rank among the most trusted messengers on the issue across audiences. Given the declining trust in scientists among Republicans in particular, however, we also advise that advocates use additional validators like the U.S. military when communicating about climate change to more conservative audiences.
[GA Latino Voters] Climate Power + BSP Research + GALEO – Latino voters in Georgia widely prioritize action on climate change, but are hearing little about the Biden administration’s climate legislation or about new clean energy projects [Memo]
Climate Power, BSP Research, and GALEO find that there is a large gap between Georgia Latino voters’ support for climate action and their awareness of recent progress on the issue.
The commanding majority of Latino voters in the state (85%) say that action to deal with climate change should be an important priority for Georgia this year, including half (49%) who call it a “very” important priority for the state.
Awareness about recent actions to combat the problem is low with this audience, however: most (58%) say they’ve heard little or nothing about clean energy projects that are being built around the country and in Georgia, while about half (49%) say that they’ve heard little or nothing about legislation passed by President Biden that focuses on clean energy investment.
Given this awareness gap and Georgia Latino voters’ clear support for climate action, communicating about the Biden administration’s clean energy policies can go a long way in shifting this audience’s attitudes about the administration. Nearly two-thirds (65%) say that they feel more favorably about the Biden administration after hearing about the administration’s promotion of investments in clean energy manufacturing and jobs.
Related Resources
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 6th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 23rd, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 27th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.