Environmental Polling Roundup – November 11th, 2022
HEADLINES
- The Economist + YouGov – Most voters say they thought about climate change when voting this year, and it was a particularly big factor for Democrats and young voters (Topline, Crosstabs)
- AP + NORC – Democrats earned their largest vote margins among voters who named climate change as their top issue (Washington Post Article)
- Public Opinion Strategies – Republican pollster reports that climate change voters helped fuel Democrats’ overperformance in the election (Release, Deck)
- [WY] Data for Progress – Wyoming voters have positive attitudes about fossil fuels but are open to mitigating their impact with carbon removal sites in the state (Article, Crosstabs)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Climate change voters wielded significant power in the midterms. Multiple polls this week, including from The Economist/YouGov and AP/NORC, show that voters who named climate change as their top issue were one of the biggest blocks of issue voters in the national electorate. In an election that will be decided by fine margins in states and districts across the country, the roughly one in ten voters who named climate change as their top issue were able to make a big impact in close races.
- Republican candidates were hurt by their inability to compete with climate voters. We saw throughout the cycle that climate change and the environment were core weaknesses for the Republican Party this cycle, with voters – including Republican voters – far less likely to trust Republicans to handle climate change, the environment, and abortion than other major issues. This brewing problem came to the fore on an Election Night that was worse than expected for Republican candidates, as polls by AP/NORC and Public Opinion Strategies show that climate voters supported Democratic candidates by overwhelming margins.
- Carbon removal technology is appealing to voters, regardless of party affiliation. Carbon removal technology is one of the climate policy prescriptions that tends to yield the strongest amount of cross-partisan support. Newly released Data for Progress polling in Wyoming provides further evidence of the bipartisan appeal of these technologies, as Wyoming voters of all party affiliations support building carbon removal sites in the state.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change + Election] 64% of midterm voters say they thought about climate change when casting votes in the election, including 38% who considered the issue “a lot” [Economist/YouGov]
- [Climate Change + Election] 71% of midterm voters believe that climate change is a serious problem for the country, including 46% who say it’s a “very serious problem” [Edison Research Exit Poll]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue besides inflation/prices, jobs/economy, and health care [Economist/YouGov]
FULL ROUNDUP
The Economist + YouGov
Most voters say they thought about climate change when voting this year (Topline, Crosstabs)
The final Economist/YouGov tracking poll before Election Day found that 38% of midterm voters (those who said they had already voted or were planning to) thought about climate change “a lot” when casting a vote in this year’s election, while an additional 26% thought about the issue at least “a little.”
By comparison, most voters said they thought “a lot” about other issues such as the economy (73%), inflation (68%), crime (59%), immigration (55%), government spending (55%), and abortion (52%).
However, climate change was clearly a major factor in the election for key electoral subgroups.
For example, 64% of self-identified Democrats thought about climate change “a lot” when voting – more than any other issue aside from abortion (72%).
And among young voters aged 18-29, nearly half (48%) said they considered climate change “a lot” in their vote, ranking it just behind the economy (55%), inflation (55%), abortion (53%), and guns (50%).
AP + NORC
Democrats earned their largest vote margins among voters who named climate change as their top issue (Washington Post Article)
The AP VoteCast poll, conducted by the AP and UChicago’s NORC, surveyed early and likely voters up through Election Day. You can find a breakdown of the poll’s findings in the Washington Post article linked here, along with analysis of the national network exit poll conducted by Edison Research.
While the national network exit poll didn’t offer climate change as an option for voters to choose as their “most important issue,” the AP VoteCast survey provided a larger list of options and found that voters were equally or more likely to name climate change as their number one issue in the election than any other issue aside from jobs and the economy.
Here are the options that the AP VoteCast survey provided, ranked by the percentage of midterm voters who named each as the most important issue facing the country:
- The economy and jobs – 47%
- Abortion – 9%
- Climate change – 9%
- Immigration – 9%
- Crime – 8%
- Health care – 7%
- Gun policy – 6%
- The coronavirus pandemic – 2%
- Foreign policy – 2%
Climate voters appear to have been a critical component of Democrats’ better-than-expected performance in the election, as AP VoteCast finds that voters who ranked climate change as their number one issue voted for Democratic candidates in U.S. House elections by a 77-point margin (87%-10%).
Per the AP VoteCast data, no other issue group broke as decisively for one party as climate voters did for Democrats.
Public Opinion Strategies
Republican pollster reports that climate change voters helped fuel Democrats’ overperformance in the election (Release, Deck)
This Election Night poll from Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies provides further evidence that climate voters were a big part of Democrats’ surprisingly strong performance in the midterms.
The poll asked voters to name the two most important factors in their vote, and found that rising prices and inflation (32%), abortion (31%), the economy and inflation (26%), and protecting democracy (25%) ranked as midterm voters’ top priorities. Meanwhile, climate change (8%) ranked a tier below along with crime (13%), immigration (12%), health care (9%), and guns (8%).
Like the AP VoteCast poll, Public Opinion Strategies finds that Democratic candidates won climate voters by an overwhelming margin. Those who named climate change as one of their top two issues reported voting for Democratic candidates for Congress by a 76-point margin (88%-12%).
The only other groups in the Public Opinion Strategies poll that voted as lopsidedly for one party were voters who named immigration as a top issue (81 points in favor of Republicans, 90%-9%) and voters who named health care as a top issue (78 points in favor of Democrats, 89%-11%).
[WY] Data for Progress
Wyoming voters have positive attitudes about fossil fuels but are open to mitigating their impact with carbon removal sites in the state (Article, Crosstabs)
Data for Progress finds that Wyoming voters are resistant to the idea of shifting the state away from fossil fuels, but open to technology that would mitigate the effects of carbon pollution.
While renewable sources of energy tend to be the most popular energy sources at the national level, Data for Progress finds that this is not the case in Wyoming. Voters in the state have overwhelmingly positive attitudes about natural gas (91% favorable / 8% unfavorable), oil (84% favorable / 15% unfavorable), and coal (78% favorable / 20% unfavorable). And while solar energy is popular with Wyomingites (69% favorable / 29% unfavorable), they have mixed opinions about wind energy (52% favorable / 46% unfavorable).
The poll demonstrates the difficulties of advocating for the clean energy transition in a state where fossil fuels have traditionally been a significant economic driver, as Wyomingites clearly equate fossil fuel extraction with jobs and economic stability.
When asked to choose which they agree with more between the two competing statements below, Wyoming voters opt for a fossil fuel-friendly argument about the state’s energy future over an argument for expanding clean energy by a 76%-24% margin:
- “While we may be producing more energy from alternative sources like wind energy, Wyoming will still be producing oil, natural gas and coal for decades to come.” (76%)
- “The transition away from oil, natural gas, and coal is happening now. Wyoming needs to increase alternative energy production so we can be a leader in this new energy economy.” (24%)
Additionally, when asked to choose what potential negative consequence they are most concerned about as Wyoming continues to increase the production of alternative energy sources, four in ten (40%) say they are most concerned about a “trickle-down effect where less coal and natural gas production means communities will lose jobs and small businesses will close.”
Wyoming voters are much more likely to say that they’re concerned about this broad “trickle-down” economic effect from the energy transition than they are about coal and gas workers being unable to find new jobs (18%), higher energy prices (17%), or the loss of tax revenues that fund services such as public schools (11%).
On the flip side, when asked what positive benefit they would most like to see as a result of Wyoming’s transition to alternative energy sources, more Wyomingites name lower energy prices (41%) than other potential benefits such as the creation of good new jobs in alternative energy (23%), new tax revenues (11%), or reduced air and water pollution (9%).
The poll also finds that Wyoming voters across the political spectrum support building carbon dioxide removal sites in the state. Wyomingites who are familiar with the technology have overwhelmingly positive impressions: 57% feel favorably about carbon dioxide removal technologies, while 16% feel unfavorably and 27% don’t know enough about these technologies to give an opinion.
And after reading a short explanation of carbon dioxide and the technologies that exist to capture, store, and remove it, over two-thirds of voters support building carbon dioxide removal sites in Wyoming (68% support / 18% oppose). Support for the idea spans party lines, as it is supported by wide margins among Democrats (84% support / 8% oppose), independents (69% support / 17% oppose), and Republican voters (65% support / 20% oppose) alike.
We’ve seen carbon capture and storage test well with right-leaning audiences before, and this new Wyoming poll affirms that audiences who are reluctant to curtail fossil fuel extraction still want to see policies to limit carbon pollution.
Related Resources
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