Environmental Polling Roundup – May 24, 2024
HEADLINES
Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters say that they are less likely to vote for Trump after learning that he asked for $1 billion from the oil industry and vowed to cater to the industry’s interests if elected [The Hill Article, Memo, Crosstabs]
Navigator – New limits on “forever chemicals” in drinking water are overwhelmingly popular; voters say that cracking down on corporate price gouging should be the top priority for addressing inflation, and most also say that it should be a priority to switch to lower cost clean energy [Release]
Yale + GMU – Long-term trends in Americans’ climate attitudes show increased understanding that global warming is happening and harming Americans [Article]
[Latinos] Climate Power en Acción – Information about President Biden’s climate and clean energy accomplishments is persuasive with Latino voters; contrast messaging about Biden and Trump on climate change provides evidence that Biden can get things done and reinforces the notion that Trump only cares about himself and corporate interests [Memo]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Information about Biden’s and Trump’s contrasting approaches to climate change tells voters a lot about the candidates, beyond their policy differences. Recent polling has shown that messaging focused on climate and clean energy improves Biden’s standing with voters and increases perceptions that he can “get things done” as president. Now, new qualitative research findings released by Climate Power en Acción show that educating Latino voters about Biden’s and Trump’s climate records lessens concerns about Biden’s effectiveness as president and reinforces the idea that Trump is only in it for himself and his corporate donors.
- Ties to the fossil fuel industry are a liability for political candidates this year. Navigator finds that voters want the federal government to prioritize cracking down on corporate price gouging as a way to address inflation, and recent Navigator polling also found that voters chiefly blame oil and gas companies for high gas prices and view the oil and gas industry as the country’s greediest. It follows that voters are wary of politicians who will continue Washington’s cozy relationship with oil and gas and, to that end, Climate Power and Data for Progress find that most voters would either rule out or reconsider voting for a candidate who promises handouts to the fossil fuel industry like Trump recently did.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [PFAS] 79% of voters support designating certain “forever chemicals” as hazardous substances, so that those responsible for contaminating our water supply would have to pay to clean them up [Navigator]
- [Fossil Fuel Accountability + Elections] 61% of voters say that that a candidate encouraging oil and gas donations by telling industry executives that they would cut taxes and regulations on the industry would be a “deal-breaker” or make them “reconsider” their decision to vote for the candidate [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
FULL ROUNDUP
Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters say that they are less likely to vote for Trump after learning that he asked for $1 billion from the oil industry and vowed to cater to the industry’s interests if elected [The Hill Article, Memo, Crosstabs]
Following news about President Trump’s dinner at Mar-A-Lago with oil executives last month, at which he reportedly asked for $1 billion and vowed to cater to the industry by removing environmental protections if elected, Climate Power and Data for Progress find that voters have a deeply negative reaction to this type of pandering to fossil fuel interests.
For most voters, pandering to the fossil fuel industry would force them to reconsider or rule out voting for a candidate. Nearly one-third of voters (31%) say that it would be a deal-breaker for them if “a candidate for elected office told oil and gas industry executives that donating to their campaign would be a ‘deal’ for them because of the taxation and regulation they would avoid.”
An additional 30% say that this information would make them “reconsider” their decision to vote for that candidate, while only around one-quarter (26%) agree that “this news would not be a deal-breaker for me and I could still vote for that candidate.”
After learning that it was Trump who tried to solicit oil industry donations with promises of handouts to the industry, voters say that they are less likely to vote for him and express strong concerns about a possible second term.
After reading about Trump’s promises to oil industry executives at Mar-A-Lago, most voters (58%) say that they are concerned about a potential second term for Trump. This includes two in five (42%) who are “very concerned” about a second term for Trump.
Additionally, voters are about twice as likely to say that Trump’s promises to oil industry executives make them less likely to vote for him (45%) than to say that this information makes them more likely to vote for him (23%).
The backlash against Trump’s oil industry pandering is particularly pronounced among key audiences including independent voters (17% more likely to vote for Trump / 47% less likely) and Black voters (16% more likely / 60% less likely).
Voters have deep concerns about several of President Trump’s actions and connections to the fossil fuel industry. More than two in five voters find each of the following pieces of information “very concerning” as it relates to a potential second term for Trump:
- Big Oil is planning for a possible second Donald Trump term by preparing ready-to-sign executive orders that would cause pollution to soar by increasing offshore oil leases (45% very concerning)
- Donald Trump told Big Oil that he’d roll back dozens of pollution and conservation regulations that protect public health as he asked for $1 billion in campaign contributions from the industry (44%)
- The FTC recently accused Trump’s Big Oil ally of attempting to collude with OPEC to keep oil prices high—driving up costs for American families at the pump and lining the pockets of their already wealthy shareholders (44%)
Navigator – New rules for “forever chemicals” in drinking water are overwhelmingly popular; voters say that cracking down on corporate price gouging should be the top priority for addressing inflation, and most also say that it should be a priority to switch to lower cost clean energy [Release]
Voters say that cracking down on corporate greed should be the top priority for addressing inflation. The majority of voters rate “cracking down on corporations that are price gouging on things like food and gas” (58%) as a “top priority” (9-10 on a 0-10 scale of prioritization) for the government to deal with inflation, ahead of other possible solutions such as reining in the high cost of health care and prescription drugs (53%), cutting government spending and debt (46%), and making it easier to buy or rent a home (45%).
On a related note, Navigator also recently found that voters rate oil and gas companies as the greediest companies in the country.
Most voters say that switching to lower cost clean energy should also be a priority for addressing inflation. Nearly two-thirds of voters (65%) rate it as a “priority” (7+ on a 0-10 scale) for the government to address inflation by “bringing down energy bills by switching to lower cost clean energy,” including about one-third (36%) who rate it as a “top priority” (9-10).
New rules for “forever chemicals” are overwhelmingly popular. Following recent EPA actions to clean up PFAS contamination, nearly four in five voters (79%) say that they support these actions to designate certain “forever chemicals” as hazardous substances that polluters are required to pay to clean up.
The majority of voters (55%) strongly support these rules on “forever chemicals,” and the new rules are popular across the political spectrum with 83% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and 77% of Republicans all in favor.
CBS News and YouGov relatedly found in a recent poll that President Biden’s action to reduce toxic chemicals in drinking water is his most popular environmental accomplishment.
Yale + GMU – Long-term trends in Americans’ climate attitudes show increased understanding that global warming is happening and harming Americans [Article]
Yale and GMU have released a new version of their CCAM Explorer tool, allowing advocates to explore Americans’ attitudes on a range of climate-related questions over time and within particular political and demographic subgroups going back to 2008.
A growing majority of Americans recognize that global warming is happening and human-caused. Between 2010 and 2023, the share of Americans who recognize that global warming is happening grew by 14 percentage points in Yale and GMU’s data (from 59% to 73%). The percentage who attribute global warming to human activities also increased by double digits, from 48% in 2010 up to 59% in 2023.
Americans have become much more likely to see global warming as an immediate threat to them and other Americans. The belief that global warming is either harming people in the U.S. now or will do so within the next ten years has increased sharply since 2010, from 38% up to 57%.
Over that same time period, Americans have become 13 points more likely to say that global warming will harm them personally (from 33% to 46%).
Growth in climate understanding is largely driven by Democrats, with additional gains among center and center-right voters. Yale and GMU’s trends show that Democrats have become much more unified in their climate beliefs over the past decade or so. Large and growing majorities of liberal Democrats (87%, +26 since 2010) and non-liberal Democrats (74%, +25 since 2010) say that global warming is either harming Americans now or will do so in the next 10 years.
The majority of independents (60%, +18 since 2010) and nearly half of non-conservative Republicans (48%, +21 since 2010) have also come to view global warming as a threat to Americans either now or in the next 10 years, though conservative Republicans (19%, +4 since 2010) consistently deny that global warming poses an immediate threat to the country.
[Latinos] Climate Power en Acción – Information about President Biden’s climate and clean energy accomplishments is persuasive with Latino voters; contrast messaging about Biden and Trump on climate change provides evidence that Biden can get things done and reinforces the notion that Trump only cares about himself and corporate interests [Memo]
In a series of focus groups with persuadable Latino voters in battleground states (AZ, GA, NC, and NV), Climate Power en Acción finds that these voters come to see President Biden as a more effective president after they learn about his climate and clean energy accomplishments. Additionally, information about Trump’s climate record raises real concerns with this audience.
These findings are largely consistent with polling that we’ve seen on the candidates’ climate records, as most voters are not aware of the sharp contrast between Biden and Trump on the issue – both because voters are unfamiliar with Biden’s climate accomplishments and because they don’t know about or don’t recall Trump’s climate denialism.
Pulling the six key takeaways from Climate Power en Acción’s focus group memo with BSP Research:
- Focus group participants did not credit President Biden with his accomplishments, mainly because they were still not fully aware of the Biden Administration’s historical progress on climate and clean energy issues, including serving historically underrepresented communities.
- When informed of Biden’s climate and clean energy accomplishments, there was positive momentum in favor of Biden. Awareness of President Biden’s clean energy plan improved perceptions of his effectiveness and positive economic impact under his administration.
- Trump’s record seems to be either forgotten or not top of mind among our focus group participants, despite awareness of the negative impacts caused by his first-term policies on the Latino community. This situation arises from a lack of recognition for Biden’s achievements and a sense of nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy.
- We see a meaningful change in conversations when participants are reminded of Trump’s destructive record while contrasting it with Biden’s achievements. In their view, Trump stands only for himself and his corporate allies – this includes his plans to roll back climate and clean energy progress.
- When contrasting Biden’s and Trump’s presidencies in relation to their climate and clean energy records, Biden stood out as an advocate for climate action among participants, who worry about Trump’s denial of climate change and the potential reversal of Biden’s progress if Trump is given another term.
- When messaging on President Biden’s climate and clean energy achievements, getting the basics right goes a long way: namely, communicating facts about President Biden’s clean energy accomplishments and authenticity.
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