Environmental Polling Roundup – March 15, 2024
HEADLINES
Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters are on the fence about President Biden’s handling of climate change and the environment, but their approval grows when they learn about his record – particularly among young voters [Memo, Crosstabs]
[Latino Voters] Climate Power en Acción + Data for Progress – Latino voters widely recognize that clean energy investment can lower costs and create good jobs, and side with arguments in favor of the clean energy transition and oil and gas accountability over opposition arguments [Memo, Crosstabs]
[Latino Voters] Climate Power – Messaging about Biden and Trump on climate change and clean energy significantly shifts Latino voters toward Biden; Latino voters are inclined to trust Biden over Trump on these issues but, like other voters, don’t have a clear recollection of Trump’s environmental record [Memo]
Potential Energy Coalition – Messaging in support of EVs is most effective when it emphasizes affordability, choice, and reducing pollution [Report]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Key audiences continue to show limited awareness of the Biden administration’s climate accomplishments. As polls consistently show that voters aren’t hearing much about President Biden’s climate record but widely support his climate actions when they learn about them, new polling data released by Climate Power, Climate Power en Acción, and Data for Progress shows that education about Biden’s climate and environmental record is particularly impactful in improving his standing among young voters and Latino voters. In addition to major legislative accomplishments like the IRA, Climate Power and Data for Progress find that the Biden administration’s actions to clean up drinking water and strengthen pollution standards are especially well-received.
- Advocates can shift public attitudes about electric vehicles, but it requires us to combat common beliefs about pollution and costs. New research by the Potential Energy Coalition finds that the current political polarization over EVs is underpinned by beliefs that electric vehicles are too expensive for widespread use and no better for the environment than gas-powered cars. Through extensive message testing, they find that the most effective messages for lifting support for government EV programs tackle these concerns head-on by communicating how electric vehicles are “pollution-free” and how continued investment in EVs will make them cheaper for everyday consumers. Additionally, they find a lot of promise in affordability messaging that emphasizes how lowering EV costs will give more Americans the freedom and choice to drive one if they want – directly undercutting common opposition messaging about EV expansion limiting consumer choices.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Biden Administration] 80% of voters support the Biden administration setting a national drinking water standard [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
- [Biden Administration] 79% of voters support the Biden administration investing in upgrades to our nation’s infrastructure system, such as electrical grids [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
- [Biden Administration] 77% of voters support the Biden administration strengthening existing regulations to accelerate the removal of lead service lines and address lead-based paint hazards [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
- [Biden Administration] 74% of voters support the Biden administration strengthening existing pollution standards to significantly reduce emissions of toxic and other harmful air pollution from chemical plants [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
- [Latino Voters] 85% of Latino voters are concerned about air and water pollution, including 51% who are “very” concerned [Climate Power en Acción + Data for Progress]
- [Latino Voters] 77% of Latino voters are concerned about climate change, including 47% who are “very” concerned [Climate Power en Acción + Data for Progress]
- [Latino Voters] 76% of Latino voters support a tax on the record profits of oil and gas companies, including 47% who “strongly” support it [Climate Power en Acción + Data for Progress]
- [Latino Voters] Latino voters have overwhelmingly positive attitudes about clean energy companies (66% favorable / 25% unfavorable) [Climate Power en Acción + Data for Progress]
FULL ROUNDUP
Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters are on the fence about President Biden’s handling of climate change and the environment, but their approval grows when they learn about his record – particularly among young voters [Memo, Crosstabs]
In a national voter poll that includes an oversample of young voters aged 18-34, Climate Power and Data for Progress find that voters nationwide – and young voters in particular – shift significantly in their attitudes about Biden’s handling of climate change when they learn more about his administration’s climate accomplishments.
Biden begins the survey with a slightly net-negative approval rating on climate change among voters overall (-6), and a 10-point margin of approval among young voters aged 18-34:
- Overall: -6 (45% approve / 51% disapprove)
- Young Voters: +10 (52% approve / 42% disapprove)
By the end of the survey, after reading about several of the Biden administration’s actions on the environment and climate change, voters’ ratings of his job on climate change improved significantly.
Voters nationwide shift from disapproving of his handling of climate change by 6 points to approving by a 15-point margin, and the shift among young voters is even more dramatic – from a +10 margin of approval to +43:
- Overall: +15 (55% approve / 40% disapprove)
- Young Voters: +43 (69% approve / 26% disapprove)
These results essentially simulate how voters might respond to an extended, wide-scale public awareness campaign. Importantly, all of the information that was presented was about what the Biden administration has done already – not about any campaign promises for a possible second term. The results, therefore, indicate that Biden’s middling approval on climate change stems in large part from a lack of awareness about his actions on the issue.
The poll finds that voters continue to widely back Biden’s major energy-related legislative accomplishments, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (71% support based on a brief explanation) and the investments that Biden has made to expand clean energy through the Inflation Reduction Act.
The poll explained Biden’s $430 billion dollar “Clean Energy Plan” in a couple of different ways in a split-sample test, finding that nearly seven in ten voters (68%-69%) support it whichever way it’s described.
Climate Power and Data for Progress further find that Biden’s specific policies and actions to address pollution earn even higher support than his signature legislative packages like the BIF and IRA.
In a test of 11 of the Biden administration’s specific policies and actions on climate change and the environment, all earn large majority support overall and among young voters. Actions to clean up drinking water, strengthen pollution standards, and upgrade the electrical grid are particularly popular:
- 80% support setting a national drinking water standard to limit the amount of forever chemicals like PFAS in the drinking water supply (including 76% of young voters)
- 79% support investing in upgrades to our our nation’s infrastructure system, such as electrical grids, to make it more resilient to extreme weather and natural disasters (including 73% of young voters)
- 77% support strengthening existing regulations to accelerate the removal of lead service lines and address lead-based paint hazards (including 70% of young voters)
- 74% support strengthening existing pollution standards to significantly reduce emissions of toxic and other harmful air pollution from chemical plants (including 72% of young voters)
- 71% support providing tax credits for Americans who purchase electric appliances or make energy-efficiency improvements to their homes like heat pumps, water heaters, and insulation (including 69% of young voters)
- 69% support enforcing stricter penalties against oil and gas companies that have excessively polluted our air and water (including 67% of young voters)
- 68% support developing rules to reduce pollution from new models of heavy-duty vehicles like delivery trucks, buses, and semi-trucks (including 74% of young voters)
- 67% support developing rules to reduce pollution from coal and gas-fired power plants (including 72% of young voters)
- 67% support providing tax credits for businesses that produce clean energy technologies like solar panels and wind turbines (including 66% of young voters)
- 66% support developing rules to reduce air pollution from new models of light-duty and medium-duty vehicles like cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (including 68% of young voters)
- 61% support prioritizing the distribution of benefits from federal climate and clean energy programs within communities of color and lower-income communities (including 67% of young voters)
The poll also confirms that young voters widely back the administration’s decision to pause approval of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects like the CP2 terminal in Louisiana. While voters overall are divided by a simulated back-and-forth debate on the issue, young voters side more with an argument in favor of the LNG export pause by a nearly two-to-one margin (57%-30%):
- “The president is right to pause the approval of new natural gas projects. This will protect the climate and local communities that would face health consequences from this project.” (45% side more with this argument, including 57% of young voters)
- “The president should immediately allow for more natural gas projects to be approved. This will increase our natural gas exports and benefit our economy.” (41% side more with this argument, including 30% of young voters)
Climate Power en Acción + Data for Progress – Latino voters widely recognize that clean energy investment can lower costs and create good jobs, and side with arguments in favor of the clean energy transition and oil and gas accountability over opposition arguments [Memo, Crosstabs]
Climate Power en Acción and Data for Progress find that Latino voters are a climate-conscious audience who, amid price-gouging from the oil and gas industry, are responsive to arguments for the clean energy transition that focus on the economy and cost of living.
Overwhelming majorities say that they are concerned about air and water pollution (85%, including 51% who are “very” concerned) and climate change (77%, including 47% who are “very” concerned).
Meanwhile, nearly half of Latino voters (48%) name the cost of living as one of their top three voting issues – far more than any other issue. (Climate change and the environment ranks a couple of tiers below, with 15% of Latino voters selecting it as a top-three voting issue.)
Nearly two-thirds of Latino voters say that they are paying more than they did a year ago for their home electricity bills (66%) and gas for their vehicles (65%) specifically, and they assign the brunt of the blame to oil and gas executives and utility companies.
When asked who or what they believe is responsible for higher energy prices, three-quarters of Latino voters say that oil and gas CEOs/executives (77%) and utility companies (76%) deserve at least “some” of the blame – more than other possible sources of blame such as international conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East (66%), Republicans in Congress (65%), and President Biden (63%).
Additionally, the poll finds that Latino voters join with the rest of the electorate in feeling much more positively about the clean energy industry than the fossil fuel industry. While Latino voters have overwhelmingly positive attitudes about clean energy companies (66% favorable / 25% unfavorable), they have mixed-to-negative feelings about oil and gas companies (41% favorable / 49% unfavorable) and deeply negative attitudes about oil and gas CEOs/executives (34% favorable / 53% unfavorable).
These negative attitudes about fossil fuel companies and their price-gouging of consumers help to explain Latino voters’ overwhelming support for the clean energy transition. By a 50-point margin (73% agree / 23% disagree), Latino voters are more likely to agree than disagree with the following statement about prioritizing clean energy:
“To grow good-paying, stable jobs for working class Americans, we need to turn our attention to the clean energy industry. The oil and gas industry is not going to last forever. We can lower energy costs for everyone while building good jobs if we prioritize investing in this fast-growing industry.”
The poll also finds that Latino voters’ support for the clean energy transition withstands a simulated, back-and-forth debate on the topic. By a 58%-36% margin, Latino voters side with an argument in favor of the clean energy transition over the type of “all-of-the-above energy” argument frequently made by opponents of climate action:
- “Investing in clean energy offers a pathway to American energy independence while also making climate change a top priority, providing families with sustainable and affordable energy options that reduce reliance on fossil fuels.” (58% agree more with this statement)
- “America needs additional energy no matter what, even if that means climate goals come at a lower priority. It is most important to prioritize building out energy as quickly as possible to lower costs, whether with fossil fuels or clean energy.” (36% agree more with this statement)
Climate Power – Messaging about Biden and Trump on climate change and clean energy significantly shifts Latino voters toward Biden; Latino voters are inclined to trust Biden over Trump on these issues but, like other voters, don’t have a clear recollection of Trump’s environmental record [Memo]
Following up on the battleground polling that they released last month, this new memo released by Climate Power focuses on Latino voters in battleground states and their reactions to the debates over climate change and clean energy in the presidential race.
They find that President Biden is underperforming his 2020 marks with Latino voters, and that a clearer contrast with Trump on climate and clean energy can improve Biden’s standing with this critical audience.
Pulling the major five takeaways listed in the memo:
- “With many Latino voters still open to Trump, or at risk of not turning out, a targeted campaign is crucial to make the case against Trump and for Biden.
- It is a mistake to assume that Latino voters remember Trump’s record and how destructive he was as president. We need to show voters the harm Trump caused by denying climate change, dismantling clean air and water protections, and obstructing progress on clean energy.
- Communicating the difference between the candidates is key. Biden’s standing improves significantly when contrasted with Trump’s record as president, especially when highlighting Biden’s initiatives for affordable clean energy against Trump’s alliance with Big Oil.
- While contrast messaging does double duty by lifting up President Biden’s leadership as well as raising doubts about Trump, we also see power in straight negative messaging against Trump. Messages to Latino voters about Trump should spotlight his dangerous environmental record, denial of climate change, and how his energy policies prioritize profits for Big Oil and raise costs for working families.
- Strong messaging on climate change and clean energy makes Latino voters more likely to vote for President Biden, with significant movement in the trial heat after these issues are litigated with respondents.”
Getting into the data, Climate Power finds that battleground Latino voters are more likely to say that they’re dissatisfied than satisfied with Trump’s handling of climate change (23% satisfied / 46% dissatisfied), clean energy (25% satisfied / 41% dissatisfied), and clean air and water (29% satisfied / 40% dissatisfied).
However, these figures leave about three in ten Latino battleground voters who aren’t sure where they stand on Trump’s handling of climate change, clean energy, or clean air and water.
Additionally, while battleground Latino voters are inclined to believe that Biden would do a better job than Trump on climate change (47% Biden / 31% Trump), clean air and water (47% Biden / 33% Trump), and clean energy (46% Biden / 34% Trump), around one-fifth of battleground Latino voters can’t say whether they trust Biden or Trump more on these environmental issues.
Messaging that fills in these blanks for battleground Latino voters can therefore produce a big shift in their presidential vote choice. Per the memo: “After messages comparing Biden’s accomplishments against Trump’s destructive record, Biden expands his lead with Latino voters from 7 points (48% Biden, 41% Trump) in the initial trial heat to 21 points in the final vote (56% Biden, 36% Trump).”
Potential Energy Coalition – Messaging in support of EVs is most effective when it emphasizes affordability, choice, and reducing pollution [Report]
In this new report (downloadable on their website), Potential Energy Coalition draws on findings from extensive research from the past four months – including an online survey, digital ad and message tests, and focus groups – to identify ways that advocates can shift the debate in favor of electric vehicles.
Like other researchers, the Potential Energy Coalition finds deep political polarization over electric vehicles. Their research also identifies several common misperceptions or negative beliefs about electric vehicles that are particularly prevalent among conservative audiences – including that EVs are too expensive for widespread use and are no better for the environment than gas-powered cars.
They find that messaging on EVs is most impactful when it addresses these concerns head-on, by emphasizing how EVs are “pollution-free” and how continued investment in EVs will make them cheaper for everyday Americans.
While Democrats responded most to the pollution messaging in the Potential Energy Coalition’s testing, the affordability messaging was most effective in shifting Republicans in favor of EV programs.
One interesting aspect of the affordability messaging here is how it cleverly re-frames the debate on EVs to make it about expanding choices and freedoms, undercutting common opposition messaging about limiting options. The Potential Energy Coalition finds that Americans are particularly drawn to statements about how people “should have the right to choose the car they want to drive” and that “Americans should have the freedom to drive what they want,” and their messaging presents EV investment as a way to expand the options that are affordable and accessible to the everyday consumer.
Related Resources
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 6th, 2021
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