Environmental Polling Roundup – June 6, 2025
Headlines
Data for Progress – Voters aren’t hearing much about the reconciliation bill, and only half correctly identify cuts to clean energy as one of the bill’s components [Release, Crosstabs]
The Economist + YouGov – A stable majority of Americans say that they’ve personally felt climate impacts, and many are bracing for a hotter summer due to climate change [Topline, Crosstabs]
YouGov – Half of Americans expect to see “catastrophic” climate impacts in their lifetimes, though they anticipate the most serious harms to be felt far away from them [Topline + Crosstabs]
CNN – Abortion and climate change continue to be the Democratic Party’s clearest issue strengths over the GOP, and most Americans say that they worry about climate impacts in their local community [Article, Topline + Crosstabs]
Key Takeaways
Voters are wide open for persuasion on the reconciliation bill. Data for Progress finds that only 30% of voters have heard “a lot” about a budget bill proposed by Republicans in Congress, and are largely in the dark about what’s in it. Only half, for example, can accurately state or assume that it will cut clean energy.
These findings show that voters are essentially a blank canvas at this point with regard to the reconciliation package, and opponents of the bill therefore have a relatively free lane to define it on their terms. This is also a case where even basic education about harmful components is effective as a persuasion tool, with voters particularly troubled by the fact that it will take health care coverage from millions of Americans.
Americans continue to see a link between climate change and hotter temperatures. The Economist and YouGov find that half of Americans are expecting summer temperatures to be warmer than usual this year, and they overwhelmingly cite climate change as the cause. Polls consistently show that the connection between climate change and extreme heat is more intuitive to Americans than it is for other climate impacts, making it all the more important to keep making this connection as we move into the hotter summer months.
Another YouGov poll finds that Americans expect their own communities to be spared from the most serious impacts of climate change compared to the rest of the country or the world at large. Highlighting climate-driven extreme heat is a powerful way to make the problem more personally relevant and wake more Americans up to the fact that they’re already experiencing climate impacts in their day-to-day lives.
Full Roundup
Data for Progress – Voters aren’t hearing much about the reconciliation bill, and only half correctly identify cuts to clean energy as one of the bill’s components [Release, Crosstabs]
Most voters have heard little or nothing about the reconciliation bill. Only three in ten (30%) say that they’ve heard “a lot” about a proposed budget bill from Republicans in Congress, while around half (46%) have heard “a little” and roughly one-quarter (23%) say that they’ve heard nothing about it.
Voters have mixed opinions about the bill, and feel less favorably about it when it’s linked to House Republicans. Voters have a mixed-to-positive impression of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” when they don’t see any other information about it aside from its name (38% favorable / 29% unfavorable).
Meanwhile, the bill is underwater with voters (35% favorable / 42% unfavorable) when it’s more informatively described as “House Republicans’ budget bill.” When characterized in this way that reveals its partisan bent, Democrats naturally have deeply negative attitudes about it (18% favorable / 67% unfavorable) and independents also take a much more negative than positive view of the bill (26% favorable / 44% unfavorable).
Voters are relatively more familiar with components of the bill that eliminate taxes on tips, fund border security, and cut Medicaid than other aspects such as cuts to clean energy. When asked whether various provisions are or are not included in the Republican budget bill, only half can correctly say that it includes cuts to clean energy:
- Funding for border security – 67% believe that this is included in the bill
- No taxes on tips – 60%
- Cuts to Medicaid – 56%
- Cuts to income taxes – 52%
- Cuts to health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act – 50%
- Cuts to clean energy programs – 50%
- Cuts to nutrition assistance – 49%
- Cuts to the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) – 39%
These questions also reveal some interesting partisan differences in what voters are inclined to believe about the bill, with Republicans more attuned to tax cuts and Democrats more attuned to funding cuts. While Republicans are relatively confident that the bill includes funding for border security (73%), the elimination of taxes on tips (72%), and cuts to income taxes (62%), Democrats are most likely to associate it with cuts to Medicaid (66%) and cuts to nutrition assistance (62%) along with funding for border security (65%).
In a stark example of this partisan disconnect, majorities of Democrats (66%) and independents (59%) both say that the bill cuts Medicaid while less than half of Republicans (43%) recognize this fact.
Voters oppose the reconciliation bill by a double-digit margin after learning more information about what’s in it. After seeing the fact-based description of the bill below, voters are 11 points more likely to oppose than support it (41% support / 52% oppose).
“Lawmakers in Congress are proposing a tax and spending bill. It would:
- Extend tax cuts for all individuals and corporations, with most of these benefitting high-income households
- Remove taxes on tips and overtime pay, and increase the Child Tax Credit by $500 per child for most families
- Cut over $700 billion from Medicaid and $300 billion from Affordable Care Act subsidies
- Cut over $300 billion from Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food assistance)
- Increase military and border security spending by more than $200 billion in total
- Add about $4 trillion dollars to the national debt (also known as the federal deficit)”
While the bill has the support of around two-thirds of Republicans (65% support / 27% oppose) after this description, it is 52 points underwater with Democrats (22% support / 74% oppose) and 20 points underwater with independents (36% support / 56% oppose).
The Economist + YouGov – A stable majority of Americans say that they’ve personally felt climate impacts, and many are bracing for a hotter summer due to climate change [Topline, Crosstabs]
Around three in five Americans recognize that humans are causing climate change. The Economist and YouGov find that 58% of Americans agree that the world’s climate is changing “as a result of human activity,” compared to around one-quarter (24%) who say that the world’s climate is changing for other reasons and just 6% who deny that the world’s climate is changing.
These figures are largely consistent with the last time that The Economist and YouGov asked this specific question in January, when 60% agreed that the world’s climate is changing because of humans.
Just over half of Americans say that climate change has personally affected them. Most Americans (53%) say that they have personally felt the impacts of climate change. This figure is also consistent with other public polling, which consistently shows that a slim majority of Americans say that they’ve been personally impacted.
Democrats and Republicans have dramatically different views on climate change and its impacts, which even extend to their stated expectations for this summer’s weather. Americans’ climate attitudes continue to be deeply politically polarized, with 85% of Democrats and 60% of independents but just 32% of Republicans attributing climate change to human activity. Even among Republicans, it’s worth noting that denialism is focused on what’s to blame for climate change much more than whether it’s happening: only 13% of Republicans say that the world’s climate is not changing, while a plurality of Republicans (44%) acknowledge that climate change is real but say that it’s being caused for reasons other than human activity.
Republicans (33%) are also far less likely than Democrats (74%) or independents (54%) to say that they’ve personally felt the effects of climate change.
We’ve seen this partisan divide over climate change extend to a range of questions about weather disasters and even general weather observations in other polling. Here, The Economist and YouGov find that around half of Americans (51%) are expecting this summer’s weather to be warmer than usual in their area–with Democrats (70%) nearly twice as likely as Republicans (36%) to believe so.
Among the half of Americans who are expecting unusually warm summer temperatures, there is widespread agreement that climate change is to blame. When those who expect hotter summer temperatures are asked why, seven in ten (72%) say that these warmer temperatures are the result of climate change while just 16% believe that these kinds of fluctuations “just happen from time to time.”
We’d expect this subset to be more climate-conscious as it skews more Democratic. Still, among the share of Republicans who say that they expect warmer summer weather than usual, a majority (54%) also attribute it to climate change. This finding is consistent with other research that shows that Republicans who accept the reality of increasingly extreme weather are also more likely to acknowledge the reality of climate change.
YouGov – Half of Americans expect to see “catastrophic” climate impacts in their lifetimes, though they anticipate the most serious harms to be felt far away from them [Topline + Crosstabs]
The vast majority of Americans believe that climate change is at least partially caused by humans. More than four in five (84%) agree that humans are at least “partly responsible” for the world’s changing climate, including 36% who say that human activity is “mainly” responsible and 48% who say that human activity is partly responsible “together with other factors.” Few believe that climate change is happening for reasons that humans are not responsible at all for (8%) or that the climate is not changing (3%).
The key difference between this question and the Economist/YouGov question this week that found far lower consensus about human-caused climate change (58%) is that the Economist/YouGov poll provided people with a binary choice between attributing climate change to human activity or other factors. Here, we can see that the public overwhelmingly agrees that humans are at least partially to blame for climate change even if many are reluctant to say that humans are the main cause.
Most Americans say that the country could be doing more to address climate change, while only around one in ten believe that the country is doing too much. The majority of Americans (55%) agree that the country “could be doing more” to tackle climate change, compared to just 23% who say that the U.S. is doing “as much as it reasonably can” and only 9% who say that the country is doing “too much” about the problem.
Majorities of Democrats (81%) and independents (57%) say that the country could be doing more, compared to just 29% of Republicans. Even among Republicans, however, less than one in five (18%) say that the country is doing “too much” about climate change.
Americans reject the idea that it’s too late to act on climate change. Polls regularly show that Americans disagree with the idea of climate fatalism (the notion that it’s not worth acting because tangible progress isn’t possible). Here, YouGov finds that only around one in ten (11%) believe that it is “already too late” to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Meanwhile, the vast majority (73%) believe that the worst effects of climate change can be avoided–with 44% recognizing that this is possible only with a “drastic change in the steps taken to tackle it.” Relatively fewer say that we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change “if we broadly carry on with the steps currently being taken to tackle it” (21%) or without taking any steps to tackle it (8%).
Americans prefer climate action through limiting consumption rather than hoping for technological progress. When forced to choose their preferred approach to the problem, Americans lean in favor of a path that reduces resource consumption over a path that emphasizes technological solutions:
- 43% prefer an approach “where we attempt to reduce consumption of resources to slow or halt the negative effects of climate change”
- 32% prefer an approach “where we attempt to come up with technological solutions to try to counter the effects of climate change”
This preference likely reflects some degree of pragmatism, with technological solutions perhaps seen as the less realistic option. In other polls, we’ve seen Americans show an aversion to climate solutions that are limiting in nature. Pew, for example, has found that Americans broadly support a transition to clean energy sources but prefer to use a mix of fossil fuels and renewables rather than phasing out fossil fuels completely.
While half of Americans say that they anticipate “catastrophic” climate impacts in their lifetime, they expect that the United States and especially their own community will be spared from the most serious harms. Half of Americans (50%) agree with the characterization that there will be “catastrophic impacts of climate change” in their lifetime, including 70% of Democrats and 50% of independents but only 31% of Republicans.
However, Americans anticipate the most serious harms to be the most distant from their own lives. Nearly half (46%) believe that the world will experience “a large amount” of harm from climate change in the next 50 years. Meanwhile, slightly more than one-third (36%) believe that the United States will experience “a large amount” of harm on that timeline and fewer expect a large amount of harm to their own community (23%) or to them personally (17%).
Americans see worldwide economic damage and mass displacement as likely long-term consequences from climate change. Americans rate economic harms and displacement as far more likely consequences of climate change than even more drastic consequences such as world war or the Earth becoming uninhabitable.
- Serious damage to the global economy – 65% believe that climate change is at least “somewhat” likely to cause this
- Mass displacement of people from some parts of the world to others – 61%
- Cities being lost to rising sea levels – 61%
- Small wars – 51%
- A new world war – 36%
- Earth becoming uninhabitable for all life – 33%
- The extinction of the human race – 28%
CNN – Abortion and climate change continue to be the Democratic Party’s clearest issue strengths over the GOP, and most Americans say that they worry about climate impacts in their local community [Article, Topline + Crosstabs]
The majority of Americans worry about the impacts of climate change where they live. Nearly six in ten (58%) say that they are at least “somewhat” worried about the risks of climate change in the community where they live. While this represents a five-point drop since the last time that CNN asked this question in November 2023 (63%), the difference may reflect seasonal patterns more than trends over time as Americans’ climate concerns have generally held steady in the aggregate in public polling over the last few years.
Climate change and abortion remain Democrats’ biggest issue strengths over Republicans. Continuing a long-term trend, Americans side more with the Democratic Party over the Republican Party on climate change and abortion than on other major issues.
Below are the margins by which Americans say that one party reflects their views more than the opposing party on each of the issues that CNN included in their survey:
- Climate change – Democrats +14
- Abortion – Democrats +10
- The way society deals with LGBT issues – Democrats +8
- The way society deals with racial issues – Democrats +7
- Education – Democrats +7
- Protecting American democracy – Democrats +5
- America’s role in world affairs – Even
- The role of the federal government – Even
- The federal budget – Republicans +5
- Immigration – Republicans +6
- The economy – Republicans +7
- Taxes – Republicans +7
- Crime and policing – Republicans +13
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