Environmental Polling Roundup – June 23, 2023
HEADLINES
Data for Progress – Most voters heard a lot about hazardous air quality from the Canadian wildfires; three in four believe climate change played some role, but partisans diverge widely in their interpretations of this and other extreme weather events [Article, Crosstabs]
[MI + NV] Climate Power – Battleground voters in Michigan and Nevada have heard little about the Biden administration’s clean energy plan, but quickly warm to it in response to positive messaging; proof points about reducing costs, creating jobs, and improving the grid are particularly persuasive [MI Deck, NV Deck]
[MI] Climate Power – Michigan voters widely approve of the decision to bring Ford’s new EV battery plant to the state; support for the plant withstands criticism about using Chinese technology [Memo]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Americans continue to view extreme weather events like the Canadian wildfires through a partisan lens. Data for Progress finds that most voters across the country link the Canadian wildfires and related air quality issues to climate change, but voters have drastically different interpretations based on their partisan affiliation: whereas Democrats mostly blame climate change and fossil fuel corporations for the event, Republicans primarily blame natural weather patterns and poor land management. In order to make future events like this more impactful in waking people up to the present-day effects of climate change, advocates need to lay a stronger foundation of public understanding about the climate-weather connection and specifically combat right-wing talking points about “natural patterns.”
- Clean energy is a winning issue in battleground states, but voters need to hear more about the benefits for consumers and the economy. Climate Power finds that voters in key battleground states including Michigan and Nevada are inclined to support the Biden administration’s clean energy plan if they hear details about what it contains, but are largely in the dark about it. To fill this information void and build support for the clean energy transition, it is most effective for advocates to focus on the clean energy plan’s cost savings for consumers and economic benefits – including new jobs for a wide range of workers.
- Voters are much more inclined to believe in the long-term cost savings from the clean energy transition than the short-term cost savings. Climate Power finds that voters in Michigan and Nevada generally assume that the increased use of clean energy will cost them more money in the next year or two, but are more open to the idea that the transition will save them money over the next ten years and beyond. Findings like this indicate that advocates need to use different messaging to talk about the short-term versus long-term cost impacts of the clean energy transition. Additionally, we need to provide the public with more proof points about how clean energy and energy efficiency can save them money right now – not down the line.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Extreme Weather + Climate Change] 68% of voters recognize that climate change contributes at least “some” to extreme weather events [Data for Progress]
- [Climate Change] 62% of voters are concerned about the impacts of climate change on their community [Data for Progress]
- [Wildfires + Climate Change] 59% of voters blame climate change at least “some” for the Canadian wildfires that brought smoke and air pollution into the U.S. [Data for Progress]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue aside from inflation/prices, health care, and the economy/jobs [The Economist + YouGov]
- [Michigan – EV Battery Plant] 61% of Michigan voters have a favorable reaction to Ford’s new EV battery plant that is being built in the state, while just 18% have an unfavorable reaction [Climate Power]
- [Michigan – Climate Action] Majorities of Michigan voters say that President Biden (58%) and Democrats in Michigan’s government (55%) are doing “too little” to address climate change [Climate Power]
- [Nevada – Climate Action] Majorities of Nevada voters say that President Biden (52%) and Democrats in Nevada’s government (53%) are doing “too little” to address climate change [Climate Power]
FULL ROUNDUP
Data for Progress – Most voters heard a lot about hazardous air quality from the Canadian wildfires; three in four believe climate change played some role, but partisans diverge widely in their interpretations of this and other extreme weather events [Article, Crosstabs]
In a poll fielded from June 9 to 11, Data for Progress finds that the vast majority of voters across the country (87%) were hearing about hazardous air levels of pollution in the U.S. due to the Canadian wildfires – including a majority (53%) who said they heard “a lot” about the topic.
The majority of voters (59%) also blame climate change at least “some” for the wildfires, including 31% who say they blame climate change “a great deal.” However, partisans have very different interpretations of the event: the majority of Democrats (55%) but only 10% of Republicans blame climate change “a great deal” for the wildfires.
Whereas Democrats are most likely to blame climate change (55% “a great deal”) and fossil fuel corporations (34%) for the wildfires, Republicans pin the most blame on natural weather patterns (33%) and poor land management (33%).
The poll finds that voters have very polarized attitudes about extreme weather in general: more than two-thirds (68%) believe that climate change contributes at least “some” to extreme weather events, including nine in ten Democrats (90%) but only around half of Republicans (46%).
And while roughly two-thirds of voters (66%) say they’re at least “somewhat” concerned about extreme weather and natural disasters in their community, Democrats are much more likely to say that they’re concerned about these events happening in their community (85%) than Republicans are (49%).
This polarization in voters’ attitudes about the weather has unfortunately been a consistent trend in recent years, with partisan audiences tending to disagree not only on the causes but even on the frequency of extreme weather events.
[MI + NV] Climate Power – Battleground voters in Michigan and Nevada have heard little about the Biden administration’s clean energy plan, but quickly warm to it in response to positive messaging; proof points about reducing costs, creating jobs, and improving the grid are particularly persuasive [MI Deck, NV Deck]
Following up on Climate Power’s clean energy polling in Pennsylvania that was released last week, we now have two new decks analyzing how to communicate about clean energy in Michigan and Nevada.
In both of these key battleground states, Climate Power finds that voters know little about the Biden administration’s clean energy plan but support the plan the more they hear about it:
- Voters lean toward toward supporting the clean energy plan passed by President Biden and congressional Democrats in both Michigan (31% approve / 27% disapprove, +4 on net) and Nevada (42% approve / 26% disapprove, +16 on net)
- Large segments of voters in both Michigan (42%) and Nevada (32%) don’t know enough about the plan to offer an opinion
- After exposure to positive proof points and messaging about the plan, voters in both Michigan (55% approve / 30% disapprove, +25 on net) and Nevada (59% approve / 29% disapprove, +30 on net) come to support it by wide margins
Climate Power finds that voters rate each of the major elements of the Biden administration’s clean energy plan favorably, with particularly positive reactions to the plan’s investments in upgrading the U.S. electrical grid and creating good-paying jobs for a range of workers.
Here are the four elements tested in each state poll, with the percentage of voters who rate each element favorably:
- Upgrading the U.S. electrical grid so it is able to handle much greater use, save money, able to deliver more electricity from cleaner energy sources, and is more reliable during extreme weather (66% favorable in MI & 74% favorable in NV)
- Creating new good-paying jobs and expanding job training in clean energy industries for a range of workers, from scientists and engineers to electricians and carpenters (65% favorable in MI & 71% favorable in NV)
- Providing incentives to businesses and consumers that significantly reduce the cost of clean energy technologies that save them money and reduce pollution (58% favorable in MI & 66% favorable in NV)
- Expanding and speeding up the transition to clean energy sources and ensuring that clean energy technologies will be developed and manufactured in the United States (56% favorable in MI & 63% favorable in NV)
In terms of proof points, Climate Power finds that voters in both Michigan and Nevada gravitate toward information about reducing consumer costs and cutting climate pollution. When provided with a list of seven statistics about the plan and asked to rank the three that are most important to them personally, voters in both states were most likely to choose these three proof points:
- It can save consumers tens of thousands of dollars for making their homes more energy efficient, and for many working families the improvements will be free (52% in MI & 55% in NV)
- It could help save the average household $1,000 per year in energy costs (48% in MI & 45% in NV)
- It will help cut climate pollution by 40% by the end of the decade (45% in MI & 48% in NV)
It’s important to keep in mind here that different audiences are likely to be more receptive to different proof points. Polling on the clean energy plan by LCV and Climate Power a few months ago found that Democrats prioritized the plan’s climate impacts while Republicans prioritized the plan’s consumer cost savings and benefits for energy independence. (Meanwhile, nearly all audiences prioritized the plan’s health impacts as well.)
The new polling in Michigan and Nevada additionally underlines the importance of demonstrating progress on cost savings and job creation from the clean energy transition. Large majorities of voters in each state say that positive impacts on these areas, as well as improvements to the electricity grid, will make them feel more positively about clean energy expansion.
Here are the percentages who say they would feel more positively about expanded use of clean energy if they see the following impacts:
- Lower energy costs in your state because of improved energy efficiency and increased use of clean energy (68% more positive in MI & 75% more positive in NV)
- Major commitments to improve the electricity grid in your state (68% more positive in MI & 76% more positive in NV)
- New good-paying jobs in clean energy industries in your state for everyone from engineers and scientists to construction workers and electricians (67% more positive in MI & 72% more positive in NV)
Notably, these polls find that voters are much more inclined to believe in the long-term cost savings from the clean energy transition than the short-term cost savings.
When asked about the next year or two, majorities of voters in Michigan (62%) and Nevada (57%) say that they expect the increasing use of clean energy in the United States to cost them more money. Just 20% of Michiganders and 24% of Nevadans expect that increased use of clean energy will save them money in the next year or two.
When asked about the next 10 years and beyond, meanwhile, voters in Michigan (38% save money / 45% cost more money) and Nevada (47% save money / 38% cost money) are much less pessimistic about the cost impacts.
In both states, Climate Power stresses the importance of demonstrating progress on the clean energy plan in people’s local areas and lifting up positive news about costs and jobs. Pulling from the “Summary Findings” from their state polls:
“Connect the progress of the Clean Energy Plan with putting money back into people’s pockets and creating new, good-paying jobs in the energy sector. Localize the progress with wins in their own communities/state and define the clear relationship between clean energy and economic opportunity. Connect pollution and public health as the problem and the Clean Energy Plan as the solution.”
[MI] Climate Power – Michigan voters widely approve of the decision to bring Ford’s new EV battery plant to the state; support for the plant withstands criticism about using Chinese technology [Memo]
Climate Power finds that Michigan voters largely support the new Ford EV battery plant coming to the state, even after being exposed to the fear-mongering about Chinese technology that Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin used to justify blocking the plant from being built in Virginia.
Pulling from the linked memo, with emphasis added in bold:
“The bottom line from our survey is that Michigan voters support the decision to build the EV battery manufacturing plant in Michigan, and they approve of Governor Whitmer’s leadership in making sure that the plant would be built in her state, even after being informed of the reasons why Glenn Youngkin blocked the plant from being built in Virginia.
When told that the Ford Motor Company will invest $3.5 billion dollars to build an electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant in Marshall, Michigan, which will create 2,500 jobs in the state, 61% of voters have a favorable reaction to the plant being built in Michigan, 19% are neutral, and 18% are unfavorable. Among voters who say they had already heard about the announcement (54% of all voters), 62% are favorable and 18% are unfavorable…
By 49% to 32%, voters continue to be more favorable than unfavorable toward the plant even after being told in detail of Glenn Youngkin’s criticism of China’s involvement, with 19% saying they are neutral…
We tested the impact of six additional messages in support of the plant, and the two with the strongest impact speak to the economic impacts the plant will have:
- The jobs that will be created will pay between $20 and $50 an hour, and most of those jobs will not require a four-year college degree. These new jobs will help thousands of Michigan workers get ahead and support their families. (59% very or fairly convincing)
- The plant will create 2,500 new good-paying jobs in a part of Michigan where there is a real need to expand job opportunities. (55% very or fairly convincing)
Many swing voters also are persuaded by the need to bring the electric vehicle manufacturing supply chain home to the United States instead of letting China control battery manufacturing.
These messages are impactful. They move the final verdict on the plant back to 58% favorable, with just 24% unfavorable…
The takeaway from this case study is clear: If you are an elected official, bringing thousands of good-paying clean energy jobs to your state is a winner, even when opponents raise the specter of China’s involvement.”
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