Environmental Polling Roundup – June 16, 2023
HEADLINES
The Economist + YouGov – Most Americans say that climate change has been a factor in severe recent wildfires; nearly one-third say that their local air quality has been affected (Topline, Crosstabs)
Navigator – Voters widely oppose the Supreme Court’s ruling on Sackett v. EPA, the decision that gutted federal protection of wetlands (Release, Deck, Topline)
[Multi-State] Climate Jobs National Resource Center (CJNRC) – Voters in key offshore wind states overwhelmingly support building offshore wind projects with strong labor standards; voters believe offshore wind is a net positive for the economy and jobs (Release, Memo)
[PA] Climate Power – Pennsylvania voters grow much more supportive of the Biden administration’s clean energy plan the more they learn about it; economic arguments like lowering household energy costs are key (Deck)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Recent wildfires are a highly salient example of climate change as a here-and-now issue, but the public needs more education about the ways that human activity makes these types of disasters more severe. The Economist and YouGov find that nine in ten Americans have heard about recent wildfires, and most believe that climate change contributed to their severity. However, polls have yet to capture a corresponding bump in Americans’ beliefs about climate change. It’s important to note that very few Americans still outright deny that climate change exists, but many are skeptical that humans are the cause. Building public support for climate action, therefore, is less about showing evidence that climate change is real and more about persuading people that climate change is a human-caused crisis that requires human-built solutions. With audiences who recognize human-caused climate change but don’t treat it as a priority, meanwhile, advocates should point to events like the Canadian wildfires as evidence that we can’t afford to delay action.
- Voters are skeptical that the clean energy transition will save them money, and they need to hear more proactive arguments on this point. In Pennsylvania, Climate Power finds that voters are inclined to believe that shifting to clean energy is more likely to cost them money than to save them money in the short term and are divided on how it will impact their energy costs in the longer term. Meanwhile, the poll finds that statements about lower household costs are the most persuasive points in favor of the Biden administration’s clean energy plan. This shows that voters are willing to hear out our arguments on costs, but it will require sustained and focused messaging to dispel their beliefs about the higher costs of clean energy.
- There’s clear opportunity to fire up the public over the Supreme Court’s gutting of clean water protections. Navigator finds that voters oppose the Supreme Court’s decision in Sackett v. EPA more than any other recent decision by the court when they learn about it. Additionally, opposition to the decision is more intense (with higher “strong” opposition) than for any other recent ruling and Sackett v. EPA is also the only recent decision that draws more opposition than support from Republicans. Clean water protections are a universal, cross-partisan priority, and there is significant opportunity to spur environmental activism by educating the public that these protections are under attack.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change + Wildfires] 60% of Americans say that climate change is at least “somewhat” responsible for the extent of recent wildfires [The Economist + YouGov]
- [Climate Change] 57% of Americans recognize that the world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity, while 26% say the world’s climate is changing due to natural causes and only 7% deny that the climate is changing [The Economist + YouGov]
- [Sackett v. EPA] Voters oppose the Sackett v. EPA decision by a nearly three-to-one margin (22% support / 65% oppose) when they learn that the decision will limit the power of the EPA to protect and regulate America’s wetlands and waterways [Navigator]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue aside from inflation/prices, health care, and the economy/jobs [The Economist + YouGov]
- [Key Offshore Wind States – Offshore WInd] 66% of voters in key states for offshore wind development support building offshore wind projects with strong labor standards [Climate Jobs National Resource Center]
- [Pennsylvania – Climate Change] 65% of Pennsylvania voters rate climate change as an important issue to them (6+ on a 0-10 scale), including 46% who rate it as “very important” (8+ on a 0-10 scale) [Climate Power]
- [Pennsylvania – Climate Change] Pennsylvania voters are more than twice asl likely to say that President Biden is doing too little on climate change than to say that he’s doing too much (49% too little / 28% the right amount / 23% too much) [Climate Power]
FULL ROUNDUP
The Economist + YouGov – Most Americans say that climate change has been a factor in severe recent wildfires; nearly one-third say that their local air quality has been affected (Topline, Crosstabs)
The Economist and YouGov find that the majority of Americans (57%) recognize that the world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity, while 47% say that they have personally been impacted by climate change. An additional 12% say that they haven’t been personally impacted yet but expect to be in the future.
These findings are all consistent with other recent polling by The Economist and YouGov about climate change: in late May, they found that 56% of Americans recognized human-caused climate change and 46% said they had personally been impacted.
Comparing Americans’ climate attitudes between late May and now, there’s no indication that the recent Canadian wildfires have led to an immediate spike in Americans’ recognition of climate change.
However, several other data points in the poll suggest that the wildfires and the air quality crisis that they created are an unusually salient example of the here-and-now impacts of climate change.
For one, the wildfires have been impossible to ignore: nine in ten Americans (90%) say they heard about the Canadian wildfires in the news, including four in ten (40%) who say they heard “a lot” about the topic.
Recent wildfires have also had an unusually wide-ranging and noticeable impact on Americans’ lives: about one-third of Americans (32%) say that air quality in their area was affected by wildfires this past week.
Importantly, most Americans are also inclined to believe that climate change was a factor in the wildfires: three in five Americans (60%) believe that climate change has been at least “somewhat” responsible for the extent of recent wildfires, including 31% who say that climate change is “mostly” or “entirely” responsible.
At the same time, there are a number of reasons why events like the Canadian wildfires may not produce immediate bumps in people’s climate beliefs and concerns.
One important reason is that people’s pre-existing beliefs about climate change color their perceptions of extreme weather. For example, Democrats are much more accepting of the scientific consensus on climate change than Republicans. The overwhelming majority of self-identified Democrats (83%) in the Economist/YouGov poll say that the climate is changing as a result of human activity, but only about three in ten Republicans (29%) say that this is the case. Democrats are accordingly much more inclined to believe that climate change is at least “somewhat” responsible for the extent of recent wildfires (83%) than Republicans are (37%).
Additionally, an exceedingly small percentage of Americans deny that climate change is happening at all. The Economist and YouGov find that just 7% of Americans, including only 13% of self-identified Republicans, deny that the world’s climate is changing. What Americans are less convinced about is the cause: 83% of Americans agree that the world’s climate is changing, but this includes 26% who believe that it’s happening for reasons other than human activity.
So while there are relatively few people who need to be persuaded that climate change is happening, there are far more people who need to be persuaded that humans are contributing to climate change and that our actions can therefore make a meaningful difference in slowing or reversing the damage.
Advocates should by all means point to the wildfires as an example of the dangers of unchecked climate change and the urgency of the problem. Building public support for climate solutions, however, requires us to go further and explain how government and societal actions can prevent these kinds of disasters in the future.
Navigator – Voters widely oppose the Supreme Court’s ruling on Sackett v. EPA, the decision that gutted federal protection of wetlands (Release, Deck, Topline)
In polling on recent and expected Supreme Court decisions, Navigator finds that the Sackett v. EPA decision to weaken the Clean Water Act is the most unpopular recent ruling by the court.
Voters oppose the decision by a nearly three-to-one margin (22% support / 65% oppose) when they learn that the decision “limited the power of the Environmental Protection Agency to protect and regulate America’s wetlands and waterways, meaning the water that Americans rely on for drinking and cooking will be in danger of pollution.”
Out of eight questions about recent or expected Supreme Court decisions – including on issues such as guns, abortion, and LBGTQ+ rights – Navigator finds that voters oppose the Sackett v. EPA ruling by a wider margin than any other recent decision.
The ruling on Sackett v. EPA is also the only recent Supreme Court decision in the poll that draws more opposition than support from Republicans (36% support / 48% oppose), demonstrating that clean water is a universal priority that transcends politics. Gallup recently found that pollution of drinking water is Americans’ single biggest environmental concern, as has consistently been the case for the past two decades.
It’s important to note that the Navigator poll provided brief descriptions of each Supreme Court decision that it asked about, intentionally balancing out the different levels of current awareness about each ruling. So while the decision in Sackett v. EPA polls as even less popular than the court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade (33% support / 55% oppose), this isn’t to say that Sackett v. EPA is anywhere close to provoking the same kind of real-world public backlash as the abortion decision.
At the same time, however, the poll shows that there is significant potential to galvanize the public behind clean water protections if people learn that these safeguards are under attack.
Of all the recent Supreme Court decisions in the poll, Sackett v. EPA attracts not only the broadest opposition (65% oppose) but also the most intense opposition (51% strongly oppose).
[Multi-State] Climate Jobs National Resource Center (CJNRC) – Voters in key offshore wind states overwhelmingly support building offshore wind projects with strong labor standards; voters believe offshore wind is a net positive for the economy and jobs (Release, Memo)
CJNRC surveyed voters across nine priority states for offshore wind development (CT, IL, MA, MD, ME, NC, NY, RI, and TX) and finds widespread support for clean energy projects in key offshore wind states, especially when the projects are worker-friendly and support good local jobs.
Pulling the key findings from their press release:
- “By a 47-point margin, two-thirds of voters support building offshore wind energy with strong labor standards (66% support / 19% oppose / 16% don’t know). This includes solid net support across all demographic subgroups, including by a 44-point margin in coastal communities and across party lines: Democrats (+75), Independents (+36), and Republicans (+16).
- Workplace safety and living wages are paramount. Voters overwhelmingly view workplace safety protections (89%) and living wages and good benefits (82%) as very important requirements for jobs created by the offshore wind industry.
- Voters believe offshore wind will be good for the economy and jobs—two of their top priorities for lawmakers. By a 37-point margin, they believe building offshore wind energy will be good for the economy (47% good / 10% bad); and by a 42-point margin, they believe it will create jobs (51% create jobs / 9% cost jobs).
- Supporting offshore wind is politically beneficial. More than four in five voters say strengthening the state’s economy (83%) and creating more good jobs (83%) should be very important issues for lawmakers working on energy and environment issues. By a 24-point margin, voters also say they would be more likely to vote for candidates that support building offshore wind with strong labor standards.”
[PA] Climate Power – Pennsylvania voters grow much more supportive of the Biden administration’s clean energy plan the more they learn about it; economic arguments like lowering household energy costs are key (Deck)
This in-depth deck provides a ton of insights from Climate Power’s recent polling in Pennsylvania on the Biden administration’s clean energy plan, mostly focusing on the IRA but also encompassing other climate and energy policies.
They find that Pennsylvania voters – like voters across the country – still have very low awareness of the actions that the Biden administration is taking on climate and clean energy. However, Pennsylvanians become highly supportive of the administration’s clean energy plan when they learn more about it – shifting from an initial seven-point margin of approval (39% approve / 32% disapprove) to a 25-point margin of approval (58% approve / 33% disapprove) in response to positive messaging about the plan.
The poll shows that cost arguments in particular are critical when communicating about clean energy expansion, as Pennsylvanians are currently skeptical about the costs of the clean energy transition, Voters in the state are much more likely to believe that increased use of clean energy will cost them more money (64%) than save them money (19%) in the next year or two. Pennsylvanians are also split on whether the clean energy transition will save them money (42%) or cost them more money (46%) over the next 10 years and beyond.
Accordingly, out of all the potential positive impacts of the Biden administration’s clean energy plan, Pennsylvania voters say that lower energy costs will go the longest way in earning their support for the plan. Three-quarters (75%) say that lower energy costs in Pennsylvania because of improved energy efficiency and increased use of clean energy would make them feel more positively about the plan, including 53% who say that lower energy costs would make them feel “much more” positively.
Pulling from the deck’s “Summary of Findings,” which includes a lot of useful messaging and targeting guidance for advocates communicating about the clean energy plan in Pennsylvania and elsewhere:
“1.) Voters who shift to approving of the Clean Energy Plan are already largely supportive of Democrats in Congress and the Biden administration – they just need more information.
- The groups most likely to move toward approval for the Clean Energy Plan once given information match the profiles of infrequent/drop-off Democratic voters (i.e., younger voters, voters of color).
- We move many of those uninformed voters to approval in our poll by simply educating them on progress.
- Voters overall feel favorable toward clean energy, the policies in the Clean Energy Plan, and the potential impacts of the plan in Pennsylvania after we give them information.
2.) Voters feel most favorable toward elements of the Clean Energy Plan centered on economic and pocketbook issues. People of color and young voters are also especially concerned with air pollution.
- Connect the progress of the clean energy plan with creating new, good-paying jobs in the energy sector.
- Localize the progress with wins in their own communities/state and define the clear relationship between clean energy and economic opportunity.
- Connect pollution and public health as the problem and the Clean Energy Plan as the solution.
3.) Educating Pennsylvanians on the Clean Energy Plan increases confidence in the Biden administration to promote investments in clean energy.
- Voters are generally unaware of the Clean Energy Plan and the progress already made.
- We can build trust between voters and Democrats in Congress and the Biden Administration by pointing to wins both nationally and in their own communities (i.e., more jobs, clean energy projects, and investments.)
- Highlight what we have already accomplished as proof that we can do more to make these goals a reality.”
Related Resources
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