Environmental Polling Roundup – June 14, 2024
HEADLINES
Yale + GMU – Steady majorities of voters say that clean energy and global warming should be high priorities for the President and Congress, and voters overwhelmingly prefer pro-climate candidates over candidates who oppose climate action [Website, Full Report]
[AZ, MI, PA] Climate Power – Climate and clean energy messaging continues to shift the presidential race among key audiences in battleground states, as voters don’t understand how much Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to these issues [AZ Deck, MI Deck, PA Deck]
EDF – Voters in coastal states and areas widely support research into sustainable aquaculture as a way to grow more seafood healthily and sustainably in the U.S. [Release, Report]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Voters consistently and overwhelmingly say that they prefer pro-climate candidates this year. Polls have been very consistent this cycle in showing that voters want candidates for office to support action on climate change, and new data from Yale and GMU provides more clear evidence of this: by a greater than four-to-one margin (62%-15%), voters say that they prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. Climate change also has the potential to be a wedge issue with moderate Republicans this year, as Yale and GMU find that less conservative Republicans overwhelmingly favor candidates who support action on global warming.
- Voters don’t recognize how much Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to climate and environmental issues. In several recent battleground state surveys, Climate Power finds that key audiences shift their presidential votes in response to climate and clean energy messaging as this messaging fills in blind spots that voters have about Biden’s and Trump’s respective records. Specifically, voters tend to assume that Biden hasn’t been able to accomplish much on climate change and tend to believe that Trump’s policies and record on the environment and climate change are more neutral than harmful.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change + Elections] By a greater than four-to-one margin, voters would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming (62%) over a candidate who opposes action on global warming (15%) [Yale + GMU]
- [IRA] 74% of voters support the Inflation Reduction Act after reading a brief description of it [Yale + GMU]
- [IRA] 77% of voters support providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels [Yale + GMU]
- [IRA] 74% of voters support tax credits or rebates to encourage people to buy electric appliances, such as heat pumps and induction stoves, that run on electricity instead of oil or gas [Yale + GMU]
- [Clean Energy Transition] 66% of voters support transitioning the U.S. economy from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050 [Yale + GMU]
- [Justice] 80% of voters support strengthening enforcement of industrial pollution limits in low-income communities and communities of color that are disproportionately impacted by air and water pollution [Yale + GMU]
- [Clean Energy Siting] 65% of voters support building solar farms in their local area [Yale + GMU]
- [Clean Energy Siting] 58% of voters support building wind farms in their local area [Yale + GMU]
FULL ROUNDUP
Yale + GMU – Steady majorities of voters say that clean energy and global warming should be high priorities for the President and Congress, and voters overwhelmingly prefer pro-climate candidates over candidates who oppose climate action [Website, Full Report]
The latest edition of Yale and GMU’s long-running “Climate Change in the American Mind” study, based on interviews conducted in April and May, features a wealth of findings on voters’ climate attitudes and policy preferences. Some of the notable takeaways from this latest wave are below.
Steady majorities of voters continue to say that clean energy and global warming should be high priorities for the President and Congress. More than three in five voters (63%) say that developing sources of clean energy should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the President and Congress, while just over half (52%) say that global warming should be a “high” or “very high” priority.
Prioritization of clean energy is essentially unchanged from the previous wave of the survey, conducted in October 2023, when 64% said that clean energy should be a “high” or “very high” priority.
Prioritization of global warming is down a few points from October (56%), though it’s worth noting that voters’ prioritization of global warming tends to follow a seasonal pattern and generally peaks during or immediately after the hotter summer months.
Voters overwhelmingly favor pro-climate candidates over candidates who oppose climate action, even if Americans don’t rate global warming as a top voting issue. Around four in ten voters (39%) say that global warming will be “very important” in their vote this year, which ranks it below top issues such as maintaining free and fair U.S. elections (77%), the economy (71%), and inflation (65%).
However, voters are very clear that they want pro-climate candidates: by a greater than four-to-one margin, voters prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming (62%) over a candidate who opposes action on global warming (15%).
Climate change also has the potential to be a wedge issue for moderate Republicans, as liberal-to-moderate Republicans support a pro-climate candidate over one who opposes climate action by a nearly three-to-one margin (47%-16%).
Voters say that corporations, even more than the government, are failing to do their fair share on global warming. While most voters say that nearly every major actor in politics and society should be doing more to address global warming, they are particularly likely to say that corporations and industry need to do more.
Below are the percentages who say that each of the following should be doing more to address global warming:
- Corporations and industry – 69%
- The Republican Party – 62%
- The U.S. Congress – 62%
- Citizens themselves – 61%
- The Democratic Party – 56%
- Your local government officials – 56%
- Your governor – 54%
- President Biden – 51%
- The media – 51%
- You personally – 49%
Voters widely back the IRA, but few are hearing much about it. Most voters (61%) say that they’ve heard “little” or “nothing at all” about the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but they support it by a roughly three-to-one margin (74% support / 25% oppose) after reading a description of it.
These findings are very consistent with previous polling on the IRA going back to the bill’s passage, with voters saying that they’ve heard little about it but large majorities supporting it when they learn the basics of what’s in the law.
Specific climate-friendly policies – including incentives for clean energy and energy efficiency – attract broad, bipartisan support. Yale and GMU find widespread support for a range of specific climate-friendly policies, including many that were included in the IRA.
This includes bipartisan support for policies that tackle climate change through agriculture, clean energy, energy efficiency, and pollution restrictions, including:
- Providing federal funding to help farmers improve farming practices to protect and restore the soil so it absorbs and stores more carbon – 86% support, including 74% of Republicans
- Developing a national program to train people who work in the fossil fuel industry for new jobs in the renewable energy industry (such as wind and solar) – 77% support, including 54% of Republicans
- Providing tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels – 77% support, including 57% of Republicans
- Providing tax credits or rebates to encourage people to buy electric appliances, such as heat pumps and induction stoves, that run on electricity instead of oil or gas – 74% support, including 52% of Republicans
- Regulating carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant – 74% support, including 52% of Republicans
Large, cross-partisan majorities also support specific proposals to address climate injustices. These include:
- Creating more parks and green spaces in low-income communities and communities of color – 86% support, including 73% of Republicans
- Strengthening enforcement of industrial pollution limits in low-income communities and communities of color that are disproportionately impacted by air and water pollution – 80% support, including 63% of Republicans
- Providing federal funding to make residential buildings in low-income communities more energy efficient – 78% support, including 60% of Republicans
While they are relatively more polarizing along partisan lines, large majorities also support proposals to increase federal funding to low-income communities and communities of color who are disproportionately harmed by air and water pollution (73% support, including 92% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans) and to transition the U.S. economy from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050 (66% support, including 91% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans).
Voters view the shift to clean energy as a net plus economically, despite deep partisan disagreement. With inflation top-of-mind for Americans these last few years, it’s become more important than ever for clean energy advocates to win debates over the costs and economic impacts of the clean energy transition.
Encouragingly, Yale and GMU find that voters are much more likely to believe that policies to transition from fossil fuels toward clean energy will improve economic growth and provide new jobs (50%) than reduce economic growth and cost jobs (28%). There is a deep partisan split on this question, however, as most Democrats (76%) say that the clean energy transition will be positive for economic growth and jobs while most Republicans (56%) say the opposite.
In terms of jobs specifically, most voters believe that increasing production of clean energy (61%) will produce more good jobs in the U.S. than increasing the production of fossil fuels (37%). However, partisans again take opposing views with the vast majority of Democrats (87%) saying that clean energy will produce more good jobs while most Republicans (72%) say that fossil fuel production will produce more good jobs.
Most voters continue to support clean energy projects in their own areas. Polls have very consistently shown that, contrary to much of the conventional wisdom in the media, most Americans support the siting of clean energy projects in their local areas.
Here, Yale and GMU find that nearly two-thirds (65%) support building solar farms in their local area and nearly three-fifths (58%) support building wind farms. Just over half also support building high-voltage power lines to distribute clean energy (54%) and building electric vehicle charging stations (51%) in the areas where they live.
[AZ, MI, PA] Climate Power – Climate and clean energy messaging continues to shift the presidential race among key audiences in battleground states, as voters don’t understand how much Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to these issues [AZ Deck, MI Deck, PA Deck]
These newly released polls in Arizona and Pennsylvania follow similar research that Climate Power has recently conducted in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Pulling some of the “Key Takeaways” from their Pennsylvania deck, which largely mirror their findings in other battleground states:
“Contrast messaging on climate and clean energy moves Pennsylvania voters toward Biden by 8 percentage points. Both positive-Biden and negative-Trump messaging are crucial for this degree of movement. The contrast results in key gains among swing voters and younger voters, and it solidifies support from Black voters.
Many Pennsylvania voters are unaware of Biden’s climate and clean energy achievements, with only one in four convinced that he has taken strong action. However, positive messaging significantly boosts favorable perceptions of Biden, including a notable 10-point improvement among young voters who believe Biden is listening to the needs of younger Americans.
Pennsylvania voters do not realize the depth of harm Trump caused during his first term or adequately understand the serious threat his reelection poses, perceiving him as indifferent toward environmental issues rather than actively hostile. They believe he favors big businesses, but overlook how that harms everyday Americans.
We need to increase the volume and frequency of Biden’s achievements in clean energy and reducing pollution. Pennsylvania voters recognize the benefits of clean energy, but their limited awareness about recent state-level and local improvements generates skepticism. More frequent and visible messaging will build credibility about Biden’s tangible impacts.
The strongest climate and clean energy case for Biden focuses on lowering energy costs, job growth, and protecting public health from air and water pollution. Voters need ongoing and tangible evidence of progress in these areas. Energy costs emerge as a top voter concern in the state; showing how Biden’s efforts will reduce energy costs for consumers is a critical message to convey.
Voters in Pennsylvania express concerns about the loss of coal jobs and its impact on workers. They want to see support for displaced coal workers. Union households particularly favor the term ‘renewable’ over ‘clean’ to avoid stigmatizing people who work in ‘dirty’ energy sectors.
The case against Trump is strong and impactful, particularly messages that emphasize threats to drinking water from fracking and his close ties to corporate polluters who harm vulnerable communities.”
EDF – Voters in coastal states and areas widely support research into sustainable aquaculture as a way to grow more seafood healthily and sustainably in the U.S. [Release, Report]
Following up on previous polling that they conducted in 2021, EDF finds that voters widely support research to help set healthy and sustainable aquaculture standards in U.S. waters so that the country can produce more seafood domestically.
Their poll surveyed voters in New York and Florida, as well as coastal areas of California and Texas and select coastal congressional districts throughout the country. A few key findings are below.
Voters across party lines support the SEAfood Act. Roughly three-quarters (76%) of voters support the SEAfood Act when they see it explained as a “proposal that would examine the risks and opportunities of aquaculture in the open ocean off the U.S. coast before setting regulations and standards.” This proposal draws support from across the political spectrum, with 81% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 75% of Republicans in favor.
Voters overwhelmingly agree with arguments for aquaculture research that focus on economic benefits and food safety. More than four in five voters agree with each of the following statements about the issue:
- “The U.S. is currently importing 90% of its seafood, and half of it is farmed. Doing the research to figure out how to do it here will expand economic opportunity.” (84% agree)
- “The U.S. is currently importing 90% of its seafood, and half of it is farmed, but it’s not up to the same health and safety standards we have. Doing the research to figure out how to do it here will ensure we consume safe seafood.” (82% agree)
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