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Environmental Polling Roundup – June 12, 206

David Gold David Gold

Headlines

Yale + GMU – Voters overwhelmingly prefer pro-climate candidates to candidates that oppose climate action; majorities believe that global warming is increasing the costs they pay for utilities and groceries [Website, Report]

Embold Research – Voters increasingly oppose data centers in their area, and most believe that a local data center would significantly increase electricity prices [Release]

Climate Power – Voters across party lines support stronger regulations on companies’ air and water pollution; effective messaging on the topic calls out politicians for prioritizing corporate profits over public health and focuses on drinking water contamination in particular [Release, Memo]

Key Takeaways

The idea of “climate shushing” is not supported by public opinion. The concept of “climate shushing” has come up in a number of recent articles, including in The New York Times and Grist. The concept refers to a developing conventional wisdom in politics that Democrats are better off de-emphasizing climate change or ignoring the issue altogether.

As these articles lay out, the case for this strategy is not well-supported by data. Polls consistently show that Americans believe that the country is doing too little on climate change, even if they don’t see the issue as a major priority. A deeper analysis by CU Boulder’s Center for Environmental Futures (C-SEF) in 2024 on the politics of climate change concluded that “climate change opinion has had a significant and growing effect on voting that favors the Democrats and is large enough to be pivotal to the outcomes of close elections.”

This week, in newly released data from their long-running “Climate Change in the American Mind” study, Yale and GMU find that voters would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming by a roughly four-to-one margin over a candidate who opposes action on global warming.

Part of the reasoning behind “climate shushing” is the idea that climate change distracts from voters’ top priorities, such as the cost of living. However, Yale and GMU find that most voters see a connection between these two issues. In particular, majorities of voters believe that global warming is increasing the costs they pay for utilities and groceries. 

Voters consistently say that they want the government to prioritize the cost of living ahead of other issues. That has been the case for several years, and will likely continue into the foreseeable future. However, the idea that talking about climate change is counterproductive–especially when voters consistently say that they want more action both to reduce the cost of living and to address climate change–is simply not supported by the data.

Polluter accountability continues to resonate across party lines. Voters’ anger at the greed of oil and gas companies and other corporate polluters provides another opening for advocates to connect environmental and economic issues in a compelling way.

Climate Power finds that majorities of voters across partisan lines support “stronger regulations of air and water, even if it places an economic burden on companies.”

And in a test of 14 different pollution-related problems, they find that the problem that concerns voters most is that “corporations [are] polluting our air and spilling chemicals into our water, making Americans sick, all in the name of profit.” Voters were more likely to say that they were concerned about this problem than by problems related to water or air pollution that did not name corporate actors as the cause.

Good Data Points to Highlight

[Climate Action + Elections] By a 58%-14% margin, voters say that they would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming (58%) over a candidate who opposes action on global warming (14%) [Yale + GMU]

[Climate Change + Costs] 66% of voters believe that global warming is increasing their home utility bills [Yale + GMU]

[Climate Change + Costs] 61% of voters believe that global warming is increasing the costs they pay for groceries [Yale + GMU]

[Energy Transition] 68% of voters say that the U.S. should use more renewable energy in the future than it does today [Yale + GMU]

[Energy Transition] 56% of voters say that the U.S. should use less fossil fuel energy in the future than it does today [Yale + GMU]

[Clean Energy] 58% of voters say that developing sources of clean energy should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the president and Congress [Yale + GMU]

[Federal Climate Rollbacks] 77% of voters oppose ordering all federal agencies to stop doing research on global warming [Yale + GMU]

[Federal Climate Rollbacks] 77% of voters oppose ordering all federal agencies to stop providing information about global warming to the public [Yale + GMU]

[Endangerment Finding / Carbon Emissions] 77% of voters support regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant [Yale + GMU]

[Polluter Accountability] 72% of voters, including 62% of Trump voters, support stronger regulations of air and water “even if it places an economic burden on companies” [Climate Power]

Full Roundup

Yale + GMU – Voters overwhelmingly prefer pro-climate candidates to candidates that oppose climate action; majorities believe that global warming is increasing the costs they pay for utilities and groceries [Website, Report]

Voters overwhelmingly prefer pro-climate candidates to candidates that oppose climate action. By a greater than four-to-one margin, voters say that they would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming (58%) over a candidate who opposes action on global warming (14%).

Nearly nine in ten Democrats (88%) say that they prefer candidates who support action on global warming, while Republicans are more split (25% candidate who supports action / 28% candidate who opposes action). Nearly half of Republican voters (46%) say that a candidate’s stance on climate action doesn’t matter to them either way.

Voters recognize the connection between global warming and the cost of living, particularly in terms of increasing utility and grocery costs. Most voters (54%) say that global warming is affecting the cost of living in the U.S. “some” or “a lot.”

In their own lives, 43% say that global warming is having at least “some” effect on their cost of living. And when probed on particular costs, majorities of voters say that global warming is increasing the costs they pay for utilities, groceries, and owning and operating a car or truck.

Below are the percentages of voters who say that global warming is increasing various costs for them personally:

Democrats continue to prioritize climate action and clean energy, but aren’t quite as consolidated on the issue as they were under Biden. Overall, around half of voters (49%) say that global warming should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the president and Congress and nearly three in five (58%) say that developing sources of clean energy should be a “high” or “very high” priority for national leaders.

Yale and GMU find that these figures have been trending slightly downward during Trump’s second term in office. The percentages who say that global warming and clean energy should be “high” or “very high” priorities are both down by five points since December 2024.

While large majorities of Democrats continue to say that global warming (78%) and clean energy (84%) should be “high” or “very high” priorities for the president and Congress, Democrats are not as fully consolidated on these topics as they were under Biden. Yale and GMU found that record-high percentages of Democrats said that the country should be prioritizing these issues during Biden’s presidency, with the percentage of Democrats calling global warming a “high” or “very high” priority rising as high as 88% in 2021 and the percentage of Democrats calling clean energy a “high” or “very high” priority rising as high as 93% in 2023.

Among Republican voters, only around one in five say that global warming (18%) or clean energy (20%) should be “high” or “very high” priorities for the president and Congress.

Specific climate-friendly policies continue to attract broad, bipartisan support. 

Despite deep partisan polarization over climate change, Yale and GMU find widespread support for several specific policies that would help address the problem. These include:

Federal climate rollbacks are deeply unpopular, even among Republicans. Around three-quarters of voters oppose efforts to stop federal research and communication about climate change, including:

Voters are much more supportive of renewable energy generation on public lands than fossil fuel extraction. Around seven in ten voters (72%) support generating renewable energy like solar and wind on public land in the U.S., while less than half (46%) support drilling for and mining fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas on public land in the U.S.

And while a slight majority (53%) support expanding offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast, only around three in ten (31%) support drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. 

Even among Republicans, who overwhelmingly support the expansion of offshore drilling in general (81%), only around half (51%) support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Voters are more amenable to renewable energy infrastructure in their areas than fossil fuel or nuclear infrastructure, though the issue continues to be politically divisive. Voters are much more likely  to say that they would support than oppose a solar or wind farm in their local area, while they are split about evenly on the ideas of siting nuclear power plants or oil and gas pipelines near them.

Below are the percentages who say that they would support or oppose various types of energy infrastructure in their local areas:

While large majorities of Democrats say that they would support solar farms (76%) or wind farms (71%) in their area, Republican voters are split on the idea of solar farms in their area (36% support / 34% oppose) and oppose local wind farms by a double-digit margin (28% support / 44% oppose).

Data centers are unpopular across the political spectrum. Only 15% of voters say that they would support a data center for artificial intelligence (AI) in their local area, while a majority (58%) would oppose it. Democrats and Republicans are relatively united on this topic, with Democrats (10% support / 66% oppose) and Republicans (20% support / 50% oppose) both far more likely to say that they would oppose than support a local data center project.

The costs of data centers continue to be a clear concern for voters, with nearly three in five (59%) saying that they believe their electricity bills would increase if a data center opened in their area. 

Voters continue to back the long-term clean energy transition, despite concerns about the costs. Polls show that Americans are split on the relative costs of solar and wind compared to other energy sources. A recent Pew poll found that Americans are slightly more likely to believe that solar and wind are cheaper than other energy sources than to believe that renewables are more expensive, though the poll also found that Democrats and Republicans have sharply different viewpoints on the topic.

Here, Yale and GMU find that a plurality of voters (41%) believe that government policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy will make electricity more expensive. Around one-third (33%) believe that policies to transition toward clean energy will make electricity less expensive, while around one-quarter (24%) believe that these policies won’t have an impact either way on electricity prices. Again, Democrats and Republicans disagree sharply: a slight majority of Democrats (52%) believe that policies to promote the clean energy transition will make electricity less expensive, while three in five Republicans (63%) believe that these policies will make electricity more expensive.

Still, Yale and GMU find that around two-thirds of voters (68%) say that the U.S. should use more renewable energy like solar and wind in the future than it does today and most (56%) also say that the country should use less energy from fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas than it does today.

Additionally, nearly two in three voters (65%) support transitioning the U.S. economy from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050.

Embold Research – Voters increasingly oppose data centers in their area, and most believe that a local data center would significantly increase electricity prices [Release]

Opposition to local data center construction has increased sharply this year. Embold Research finds that voters now oppose data centers being built in their local area by a 49-point margin (21% support / 70% oppose). The margin of opposition has increased significantly since Embold Research previously asked about the topic in December 2025, at which point voters opposed local data centers by a 16-point margin (36% support / 52% oppose).

Opposition is also far more intense now than it was seven months ago, with 58% of voters “strongly” opposed to the idea of a local data center (up from 36% in December 2025).

Voters believe that a local data center would significantly increase electricity costs. Consistent with Yale and GMU’s recent findings on the cost concerns around data centers, Embold finds that 73% of voters believe that a data center in their area would increase local electricity prices. This includes a majority of voters (59%) who believe that a local data center would increase electricity prices in their area “a lot.”

Voters are relatively less concerned about the cost impacts of data centers if they are powered by on-site renewable energy. Around half of voters (46%) believe that a data center in their area would increase local electricity prices if it were powered by one-site renewable energy, compared to nearly two-thirds (73%) who believe that a data center in their area would increase local electricity prices without being told how it would be powered.

The idea of on-site clean power generation therefore seems to go a long way to ameliorate cost concerns around data centers, but certainly does not eliminate these concerns for voters.

Climate Power – Voters across party lines support stronger regulations on companies’ air and water pollution; effective messaging on the topic calls out politicians for prioritizing corporate profits over public health and focuses on drinking water contamination in particular [Release, Memo]

Voters across party lines support stronger regulations on companies’ air and water pollution. Voters overwhelmingly support stronger pollution rules when they are framed as holding corporate actors accountable: seven in ten voters (72%), including three in five Trump voters (62%), say that they support stronger regulations of air and water even if it places an economic burden on companies.

Voters’ greatest pollution-related concern is that corporate polluters are harming public health in the name of profit. Climate Power tested 14 different pollution-related problems against each other in randomized, head-to-head matchups to determine which elicited the greatest concern from voters.

In this test, pollution with clear links to corporate malfeasance tended to elicit the most concerns. Below are the most concerning items tested, ranked by the percentage of the time that voters chose each one as the most concerning from a randomized pair:

Effective messaging on pollution calls out politicians for prioritizing corporate profits over public health and focuses on drinking water contamination in particular. Out of a variety of messages that Climate Power tested on the topic, the two below stood out as particularly persuasive to voters. And while they were framed in this case as critiques of Republican policy, voters’ strong reactions to messaging on corporate accountability and clean drinking water are consistent findings in polling that advocates can apply to a variety of non-partisan contexts as well.

[Corporate Profits / Healthcare Costs] “Their policies are hurting our families’ health and wallets. After promising to put America first, Republicans are letting big corporations off the hook, leading to higher healthcare costs and sicker communities. Families across America deserve clean air to breathe, safe water to drink, and affordable healthcare, but Republicans continue to prioritize corporate profits over our well-being. Democrats are fighting for common-sense solutions that protect our health and lower costs for working families, by holding big polluters accountable.”

[Drinking Water] “They’re siding with big polluters instead of protecting your family’s drinking water. These dangerous ‘forever chemicals’ called PFAS are in our water, and they’re linked to terrifying health problems like cancer and organ damage. Millions of American families are already drinking water contaminated with these poisons. Instead of forcing polluters to clean up their mess, Republicans are making it easier for them to keep contaminating the water you and your children rely on every single day.”

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