Environmental Polling Roundup – July 26, 2024
HEADLINES
Pew – Majorities of Americans who report experiences with extreme weather, including Republicans, say that climate change contributed to it [Website, Full Report, Topline]
Navigator – Voters tilt against the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Chevron deference when they learn about it; effective messages focus on clean air and water and how experts and scientists, rather than unelected judges, should be making decisions about how to keep Americans safe [Website, Deck]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Voters don’t agree with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Chevron deference, but they’re hearing very little about it. Navigator finds that around two-thirds of voters have heard little or nothing about the Supreme Court’s decision to limit agency experts’ ability to interpret regulations and give more power to the courts instead. When they see an explanation of the decision, however, voters oppose it by a double-digit margin.
Messaging about striking down Chevron should focus on the consequences for everyday Americans’ health and safety. Navigator also finds that two specific arguments are particularly effective at persuading voters to oppose the Supreme Court’s decision:
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- 1.) “Experts and professional scientists should be the ones making decisions about how to keep Americans safe and protect the environment, rather than unelected judges without subject matter training.”
- 2.) “This decision will make it much harder to protect the environment, keep Americans safe from substances like lead and arsenic, ensure access to clean air and water, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Extreme Weather + Climate Change] Majorities of Americans who say that their area experienced heat waves, droughts, major wildfires, or rising sea levels in the past year say that climate change contributed “a lot” to the event [Pew]
- [Climate Adaptation] 73% of Americans say that it’s a good idea to set stricter building standards for new construction in places at high risk of extreme weather [Pew]
- [Climate Adaptation] 57% of Americans say that it’s a good idea for the government to provide financial assistance for people to rebuild in places at high risk of extreme weather [Pew]
- [Chevron] By a 28-point margin (64%-36%), voters side more with the following statement over an opposing argument in favor of the Supreme Court striking down the Chevron deference: “Experts and professional scientists should be the ones making decisions about how to keep Americans safe and protect the environment, rather than unelected judges without subject matter training.” [Navigator]
- [Chevron] By a 20-point margin (60%-40%), voters side more with the following statement over an opposing argument in favor of the Supreme Court striking down the Chevron deference: “This decision will make it much harder to protect the environment, keep Americans safe from substances like lead and arsenic, ensure access to clean air and water, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” [Navigator]
FULL ROUNDUP
Pew – Majorities of Americans who report experiences with extreme weather, including Republicans, say that climate change contributed to it [Website, Full Report, Topline]
The large majority of Americans report experiencing extreme weather in the past year. Around seven in ten (72%) say that their community experienced at least one type of extreme weather in the past year.
Severe weather/storms and heat waves are the most common types of extreme weather that Americans report, with around half saying that their community was affected by them:
- -Severe weather, like floods or intense storms – 51%
- -Long periods of unusually hot weather – 46%
- -Droughts or water shortages – 27%
- -Major wildfires – 17%
- -Rising sea levels that erode beaches and shorelines – 17%
Residents of the West are far more likely than residents of other regions to say that they were impacted by droughts or water shortages (41%) or major wildfires (38%).
Democrats are considerably more likely than Republicans to acknowledge extreme weather in their communities. Consistent with other polls, Pew finds that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say that they were impacted by each type of extreme weather included in the survey.
Compared to Republicans, Democrats are 23 points more likely to say that their community experienced long periods of unusually hot weather (57% to 34%), 17 points more likely to say that their community experienced severe weather like floods or intense storms (59% to 42%), 12 points more likely to say that their community experienced rising sea levels (23% to 11%), nine points more likely to say that their area experienced droughts or water shortages (31% to 22%), and seven points more likely to say that their area experienced major wildfires (21% to 14%).
Americans who experienced extreme weather overwhelmingly agree that climate change contributed to it. Among those who report experiencing each type of extreme weather, large majorities agree that climate change contributed at least “a little.” As in other polls, Pew finds that Americans see a particularly strong connection between climate change and heat waves with 61% saying that climate change contributed “a lot” to the unusually hot weather that they experienced.
Below are the percentages who say that climate change contributed to each event (among those who say that they experienced it):
- -Rising sea levels that erode beaches and shorelines – 91%, including 57% who say that climate change contributed “a lot”
- -Long periods of unusually hot weather – 89%, including 61% who say that climate change contributed “a lot”
- -Major wildfires – 85%, including 54% who say that climate change contributed “a lot”
- -Droughts or water shortages – 85%, including 53% who say that climate change contributed “a lot”
- -Severe weather like floods or intense storms – 82%, including 47% who say that climate change contributed “a lot”
Despite partisan differences, Republicans who report experiences with extreme weather widely agree that climate change played a role. For each type of extreme weather in the survey, 94%+ of Democrats who experienced it say that climate change contributed to the event and 65%+ say that climate change contributed “a lot.”
Republicans tend to feel less strongly about the connection: among those who say that they experienced long periods of unusually hot weather, for example, 76% of Democrats but only 35% of Republicans say that climate change contributed “a lot” to the extreme heat in their community.
Still, clear majorities of Republicans who report experiencing each event say that climate change contributed at least a little:
- -Rising sea levels that erode beaches and shorelines – 82%
- -Long periods of unusually hot weather – 74%
- -Major wildfires – 70%
- -Droughts or water shortages – 69%
- -Severe weather like floods or intense storms – 62%
Americans support policy solutions to help the country adapt to extreme weather, including stricter building standards and financial assistance to help people in high-risk areas rebuild. Majorities of Americans say that it’s a “good” idea for the government to set stricter building standards for new construction in communities that are at high risk of extreme weather (73%) and to provide financial assistance for people in these communities to rebuild after extreme weather events (57%).
Americans are less supportive of other policy proposals, such as having the government help cover the cost of homeowners’ insurance in high-risk communities (40%), banning new construction in high-risk communities (37%), having the government purchase homes in high-risk communities so that residents can move (25%), and requiring people to move out of high-risk communities (13%).
Navigator – Voters tilt against the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Chevron deference when they learn about it; effective messages focus on clean air and water and how experts and scientists, rather than unelected judges, should be making decisions about how to keep Americans safe [Website, Deck]
Voters are hearing very little about the Supreme Court’s action to overturn the Chevron deference, but tilt against it when they learn about it. Nearly three-quarters of voters (65%) say that they’ve heard little or nothing about the Supreme Court ruling that “courts now interpret regulations instead of agency experts, which could undermine the government’s ability to provide health care services, maintain clean air and water, and protect consumers from unsafe products.”
After reading this description of the decision, voters are 11 points more likely to disagree than agree with it (34% agree / 45% disagree). There is a wide partisan split on the topic, as the decision is deeply unpopular with Democrats (24% agree / 64% disagree) and independents (24% agree / 48% disagree) while nearly half of Republicans (48% agree / 23% disagree) are inclined to back the court’s decision.
Voters are particularly concerned about what the court’s decision means for clean air and water protections. When asked to rank the two areas that concern them most when it comes to weakened regulations, voters place clean air and water protections second behind only food and drug safety:
- -Food and drug safety – 52% top two most concerning
- -Clean air and water protections – 38%
- -Worker protections from unsafe working conditions – 29%
- -Consumer fraud protections – 20%
- -Car and airplane safety standards – 14%
Effective messaging about the topic emphasizes how the decision could endanger public health and allows judges to make decisions that should be made by experts and scientists. In a split-sample experiment, Navigator tested four possible counterarguments to the following message in support of the Supreme Court’s decision: “Allowing federal agencies to interpret laws as they see fit has led to government overreach and wasteful bureaucracy. Courts should interpret the law and if it is ambiguous, Congress should rewrite the law.”
In this experiment, two arguments were particularly effective at persuading voters to oppose the Supreme Court ruling.
By a 28-point margin (64%-36%), voters side more with the following argument over the message in favor of the Supreme Court’s decision: “Experts and professional scientists should be the ones making decisions about how to keep Americans safe and protect the environment, rather than unelected judges without subject matter training.”
And by a 20-point margin (60%-40%), voters also side more with the following argument over the message in favor of the Supreme Court’s decision: “This decision will make it much harder to protect the environment, keep Americans safe from substances like lead and arsenic, ensure access to clean air and water, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
Related Resources
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