Environmental Polling Roundup – July 22nd, 2022
HEADLINES
- Yale + George Mason – Americans who recognize global warming outnumber global warming deniers six-to-one; most Americans link extreme weather events to global warming, and the public’s worries about pollution, water shortages, and droughts continue to rise (Release, Full Report)
- POLITICO + Morning Consult – Climate change and the environment continue to be the two issues that voters are most likely to trust Democrats over Republicans to handle (Topline, Crosstabs)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Americans recognize that global warming is contributing to extreme weather events. Per Yale/GMU, majorities believe that global warming is having at least “some” impact on a variety of extreme weather events – including extreme heat, wildfires, droughts, rising sea levels, flooding, water shortages, hurricanes, tornados, and reduced snowpack.
- Americans are growing increasingly worried that extreme weather and other environmental problems will impact their areas. In three surveys conducted between March 2021 and April 2022, Yale and GMU have found rising levels of concern about air pollution, water pollution, water shortages, droughts, wildfires, and tornados.
- Climate change and the environment are two of the biggest issues differentiating the parties in voters’ minds. POLITICO/Morning Consult polling finds that the Democratic Party’s advantages in trust to handle climate change and the environment are the two biggest issue advantages that either party has over the other.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- 72% of Americans believe that global warming is happening, out-numbering global warming deniers (12%) by a six-to-one margin [Yale/GMU]
- Majorities of Americans believe that global warming is having at least “some” impact on extreme heat (62%), wildfires (61%), droughts (61%), rising sea levels (57%), flooding (57%), water shortages (56%), air pollution (55%), hurricanes (54%), tornados (54%), and reduced snowpack (53%). [Yale/GMU]
- 62% of voters say that passing a climate bill is an important priority for Congress [POLITICO/Morning Consult]
- The majority of Americans (56%) believe that global warming is mostly caused by human activities [Yale/GMU]
- More Americans name climate change and the environment as the “most important issue” to them than any other issue besides inflation, the economy, and health care [Economist/YouGov]
FULL ROUNDUP
Yale + George Mason
Americans who recognize global warming outnumber global warming deniers six-to-one; most Americans link extreme weather events to global warming and the public’s worries about pollution, water shortages, and droughts continue to rise (Release, Full Report)
This new edition of Yale/GMU’s long-running “Climate Change in the American Mind” study finds that U.S. public opinion is continuing to trend toward greater awareness and concern about climate change, though there may be a seasonal effect in the way Americans perceive the effects of climate change.
The new report, based on interviews conducted in April, finds that Americans are six times as likely to believe that global warming is happening (72%) than to believe it isn’t happening (12%). While this 72% figure represents one of the highest rates of global warming recognition in nearly 13 years of Yale/GMU data on this question, it isn’t quite as high as Yale/GMU found when interviewing Americans in September 2021 (76%) amid a summer of severe heat and other extreme weather events throughout the country.
Additionally, while the percentage of Americans saying that they had personally experienced the effects of global warming spiked last summer (52% in Sep. 2021, up from 42% in Mar. 2021), the 43% this April who said they had personally experienced the effects of global warming is more in line with the data from March 2021 than September 2021.
Americans’ beliefs that global warming is currently affecting people in the U.S. have followed a similar trajectory, as the percentage saying that global warming is harming Americans “right now” rose steeply between March 2021 (45%) and September 2021 (55%) before dropping a bit by April 2022 (48%).
Meanwhile, Americans’ concerns about extreme weather and other environmental problems in their area are continuing to rise. Comparing the Yale/GMU data from March 2021, September 2021, and April 2022, there have been sharp and sustained increases in the percentages of Americans saying they are worried about pollution and extreme weather events such as water shortages and droughts.
Below are the percentages saying that they are “very” or “moderately” worried about some specific environmental problems in their local area, in order from March 2021 -> September 2021 -> April 2022:
- Air pollution – 35%->39%->49%
- Water pollution – 37%->39%->47%
- Water shortages – 26%->32%->41%
- Droughts – 28%->35%->40%
- Wildfires – 25%->27%->33%
- Tornados – 21%->25%->33%
The report also affirms that most Americans see a link between global warming and many types of extreme weather – especially hot-weather events such as extreme heat, wildfires, and droughts.
Here are the percentages who believe that global warming is having “a lot” or “some” impact on different types of extreme weather:
- Extreme heat – 62%
- Wildfires – 61%
- Droughts – 61%
- Rising sea levels – 57%
- Flooding – 57%
- Water shortages – 56%
- Hurricanes – 54%
- Tornados – 54%
- Reduced snowpack – 53%
Another key finding in the report is that Americans continue to dramatically underestimate the level of scientific consensus about human-caused global warming. While the majority of Americans believe that most scientists agree on human-caused global warming, few recognize just how high the level of consensus is: when asked to estimate, only 20% of Americans can correctly say that over 90% of climate scientists agree on the issue.
This an important disconnect, because research has indicated that knowledge of the scientific consensus is a “gateway belief” to making the public view climate change as a serious threat.
POLITICO + Morning Consult
Climate change and the environment continue to be the two issues that voters are most likely to trust Democrats over Republicans to handle (Topline, Crosstabs)
POLITICO and Morning Consult have been regularly tracking voters’ relative trust in the two parties on major issues ahead of this year’s midterm elections, and one of their consistent findings is that climate change and the environment are unique strengths of the Democratic Party in voters’ minds.
In fact, in the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult data, no other issues differentiate the two parties more in voters’ minds than climate change and the environment. Democrats’ advantages on these two issues are wider than any other issue advantage for either party.
Here’s the list that the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll asked about in full, with the margin by which voters trust one party more than the other:
- Climate change – Democrats +23
- The environment – Democrats +18
- Coronavirus – Democrats +11
- Health care – Democrats +11
- Protecting Medicare and Social Security – Democrats +10
- Voting rights – Democrats +8
- Education – Democrats +6
- Energy – Democrats +3
- Gun policy – Democrats +3
- Jobs – Republicans +5
- Immigration – Republicans +8
- The economy – Republicans +12
- Inflation – Republicans +13
- National security – Republicans +13
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