Environmental Polling Roundup – July 19, 2024
HEADLINES
Yale + GMU – Steady majorities of Americans recognize that global warming is happening and caused by humans, and a rising number say that they’ve personally been affected [Website, Full Report]
Stanford + Resources for the Future (RFF) – Nearly three-quarters of Americans say that they have personally seen the effects of global warming; renewables have remained Americans’ favorite energy sources over the past decade, while support for nuclear has increased and support for gas has dropped [Website, Full Report]
ecoAmerica – Many Americans don’t know that air pollution from burning fossil fuels leads to asthma or other health problems [Website, Full Report, Topline]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Americans continue to see scientists and health professionals as trusted messengers on environmental issues. Scientists and doctors regularly rank among the most trusted sources of information on climate change, along with NASA, the U.S. military, and people’s own family and friends. New polling data affirms the high trust that Americans place in scientists and health professionals, with Stanford and Resources for the Future finding that 67% of Americans trust what scientists say about the environment at least a “moderate” amount and ecoAmerica finding that 69% of Americans trust health professionals at least “some” as sources of information about climate change.
- Despite recent dips, Americans still support renewables far more than other energy sources. Stanford and Resources for the Future find that large majorities of Americans say that it’s a “good idea” to generate electricity from solar power (83%), hydropower (80%), and wind power (70%), though support for each of these energy sources has declined over the past decade as views of them have become more politically polarized. These renewable sources are also the only sources of electricity that majorities of Americans support, as far fewer say that it’s a good idea to generate electricity from nuclear power (44%), “natural” gas (38%), or coal (18%).
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Awareness] 70% of Americans recognize that global warming is happening [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate Awareness] 66% of Americans recognize that global warming is affecting weather in the United States [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate Awareness] 59% of Americans recognize that global warming is caused mostly by humans [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate Action] 63% of Americans disagree with the argument that it’s “too late” to do anything about global warming [Yale + GMU]
- [Climate + Economy] 60% of Americans agree that global warming is an “economic issue” [Yale + GMU]
- [Clean Energy] 83% of Americans agree that it’s a “good idea” to generate electricity from solar power, more than any other energy source [Stanford + RFF]
- [Clean Energy] 70% of Americans agree that it’s a “good idea” to generate electricity from wind power [Stanford + RFF]
FULL ROUNDUP
Yale + GMU – Steady majorities of Americans recognize that global warming is happening and caused by humans, and a rising number say that they’ve personally been affected [Website, Full Report]
Most Americans continue to say that global warming is happening and that humans are causing it. Seven in ten Americans (70%) say that they think global warming is happening, representing no real change since Yale and GMU last asked this question in October 2023 (72%). Meanwhile, just 13% say that global warming is not happening and 17% say that they don’t know.
Interestingly, the 17% who say that they “don’t know” are far more likely to lean toward believing that global warming is happening (82%) than not happening (18%) when pressed to provide their “best guess.”
Yale and GMU also find that around three in five Americans (59%) believe that global warming is caused mostly by human activities, which again reflects no real change from October 2023 (58%).
Americans continue to underestimate the amount of scientific consensus on climate change. While the majority of Americans (58%) know that “most scientists” think global warming is happening, the public seriously underestimates the level of scientific consensus on the issue. Only 21% of Americans accurately estimate that the percentage of climate scientists who agree about human-caused global warming is above 90%. Increasing awareness of the scientific consensus on climate change is important, as climate scientists consistently rank among the most trusted sources of information on climate change.
Americans widely agree that global warming is affecting the weather, though there is still significant room to increase awareness. Around two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe that global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 36% who believe that it’s affecting weather “a lot.”
The public also connects global warming more to certain types of weather than others: Americans are relatively more likely to say that global warming is having at least “some” impact on extreme heat (64%), wildfires (62%), and droughts (61%) and a bit less likely to say that it’s having at least “some” impact on flooding (56%), hurricanes (55%), and tornadoes (53%).
Half of Americans say that they’ve personally felt the effects of global warming – one of the highest marks on this question in 15 years of tracking it. Half of Americans (50%) now say that they have “personally experienced the effects of global warming,” which is an increase of seven points since October 2023 (43%) and the second-highest figure that Yale and GMU have recorded on their surveys tracking this question going back to 2009.
It’s also important to note that this recent survey was fielded in the spring (April – May 2024), and self-reported experience with climate change tends to be highest in the summer.
Most Americans expect future generations to be harmed “a great deal” by climate change, but relatively fewer expect to feel serious consequences in their own lifetimes. More than seven in ten Americans (72%) believe that future generations of people will be harmed at least “a moderate amount” by global warming, including a majority (55%) who say that future generations will be harmed “a great deal.”
This belief in the serious harm to future generations can be a powerful motivator to support climate action: Yale and GMU presented people with 11 different rationales for reducing global warming, and more respondents ranked “providing a better life for our children and grandchildren” (23%) as the most important reason for action on the issue than any other rationale.
However, there’s clearly a lot of work to do to communicate about the ways that climate change is harming Americans right now. Less than half of Americans (44%) believe that they personally will be harmed at least “a moderate amount” by global warming, and only 16% expect that they personally will be harmed “a great deal” by the problem.
Americans continue to reject the notion that it’s “too late” to act on global warming. Americans are far more likely to disagree (63%) than agree (12%) with the statement that “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming,” demonstrating a good amount of optimism about potential solutions. Americans are less convinced about their own personal efficacy, however, as nearly half (47%) agree that “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming.”
Stanford + Resources for the Future (RFF) – Nearly three-quarters of Americans say that they have personally seen the effects of global warming; renewables have remained Americans’ favorite energy sources over the past decade, while support for nuclear has increased and support for gas has dropped [Website, Full Report]
Americans overwhelmingly recognize the reality that the earth’s temperature has been increasing and will continue to do so. Stanford and RFF find that three-quarters of Americans (75%) agree that the earth’s temperature “has probably been increasing over the past 100 years” and the same percentage (75%) believe that the earth’s temperature “will probably increase” over the next 100 years as well.
Americans who recognize global warming are far more certain about their position on the issue than Americans who doubt global warming. Around two-thirds of people (66%) who believe that the earth’s temperature has been increasing are “extremely” or “very” sure about it, while only 37% who don’t believe that the earth’s temperature has been increasing are “extremely” or “very” sure about their belief.
Most Americans say that they’ve personally seen the effects of global warming. Nearly three-quarters (73%) say that they have personally observed effects from global warming. Majorities also recognize specific signs of global warming, including that weather has been more unstable globally (66%) and that temperatures have increased more over the last three years than in the years before that (62%).
Scientists continue to earn high trust on environmental issues. Around two-thirds (67%) say that they trust what scientists say about the environment at least a “moderate” amount, though this figure has dropped by eight points since the last time that Stanford and RFF asked this question in 2020 (75%).
Despite recent dips, Americans still support renewables far more than other energy sources. Solar, hydropower, and wind continue to be the most popular energy sources despite dips in support for them over the past decade. These renewable sources also remain the only electricity sources with outright majority support.
Meanwhile, Americans have also grown less supportive of “natural” gas over the past decade. Nuclear power is the only electricity source that has risen in popularity in Stanford and RFF’s tracking, which is consistent with recent findings from Pew and other researchers.
Below are the percentages who say that it’s a “good idea” to generate electricity from various sources, along with the changes since Stanford and RFF previously asked about each source in 2013:
- Sunlight: 83% (-8 from 2013)
- Naturally flowing water: 80% (-3)
- Wind: 70% (-14)
- Nuclear power: 44% (+11)
- Natural gas: 38% (-10)
- Coal: 18% (-3)
ecoAmerica – Many Americans don’t know that air pollution from burning fossil fuels leads to asthma or other health problems [Website, Full Report, Topline]
Most Americans say that they’ve heard about health impacts from climate change. Seven in ten Americans (70%) say that they’ve heard that climate change “can affect your health,” including majorities of both Democrats (76%) and Republicans (63%).
Around seven in ten (69%) also believe that climate change is having at least “somewhat” of an effect on people’s health now, including four-fifths of Democrats (81%) and more than half of Republicans (54%).
Americans aren’t clear on how exactly air pollution from fossil fuels impacts health. When provided with a list of potential harms from burning fossil fuels and air pollution, around half of Americans (49%) correctly identify asthma as a consequence of this pollution. Relatively fewer connect air pollution from fossil fuels to early childhood development issues (24%), poor mental health (24%), or pregnancy complications (21%).
Health professionals continue to be trusted messengers about climate change. More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) say that they have at least “some” trust in health professionals as sources of information about climate change, including the vast majority of Democrats (85%) and more than half of Republicans (54%).
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