Environmental Polling Roundup – January 5, 2024
HEADLINES
Heatmap – Americans widely prefer that presidential candidates include clean energy subsidies for consumers in their platforms; overwhelming majorities support climate-friendly policies such as making it easier to build clean energy infrastructure and incentivizing energy efficiency [Article]
Data for Progress – Following COP28, “concern” and “worry” are voters’ most common reactions to hearing that the world is falling short on limiting global warming [Article, Crosstabs]
AP + NORC – Climate change and the environment rank as Democrats’ top issue priority for 2024 [Article]
[MI] LCV – Michigan residents support the state investing in EVs and anticipate that most vehicle sales will be EVs within the next 20 years; top messages frame domestic EV manufacturing as a way to keep the auto industry in Michigan long-term and to prevent job losses to other states and China [Release, Deck]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- We are entering another election year with climate and the environment as paramount issues for Democratic voters. Climate change and choice consistently ranked among the top issues for Democratic voters in polls conducted during the 2022 election cycle, and a new AP-NORC poll finds that climate change and foreign policy are now Democrats’ top issue priorities heading into 2024.
- The IRA’s consumer incentives are winning policies. Heatmap finds that voters are more likely to vote for presidential candidates who include subsidies for climate-friendly purchases such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, and home solar panels in their issue platforms. Additionally, the poll finds that consumer incentives for home energy efficiency continue to rank among the most popular climate policy proposals.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Energy Efficiency] 85% of Americans support tax incentives to make homes more energy efficient [Heatmap]
- [Energy Efficiency] 80% of Americans support tax incentives to make businesses more energy efficient [Heatmap]
- [Energy Efficiency] 77% of Americans support enforcing stricter energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances [Heatmap]
- [Clean Energy] 83% of Americans support making it easier to build new solar power plants [Heatmap]
- [Clean Energy] 79% of Americans support making it easier to build new wind farms [Heatmap]
- [Justice] 78% of Americans support implementing policies that address environmental injustices and disparities in low-income and minority communities [Heatmap]
- [Polluter Accountability] 76% of Americans support establishing a carbon tax on large polluters [Heatmap]
FULL ROUNDUP
Heatmap – Americans widely prefer that presidential candidates include clean energy subsidies for consumers in their platforms; overwhelming majorities support climate-friendly policies such as making it easier to build clean energy infrastructure and incentivizing energy efficiency [Article]
Heatmap has been rolling out results from a national poll conducted in November, and the findings in this article demonstrate how Americans want presidential candidates to have climate-friendly platforms.
Americans on balance say that they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who includes each of the following policies in their platform:
- A government-led initiative to plant millions of trees to remove carbon from the atmosphere (69% more likely / 13% less likely)
- Subsidies for ‘green’ purchases, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, home solar panels, etc. (60% more likely / 19% less likely)
- A plan where wealthy countries, including the United States, help pay poorer countries to cut emissions and adapt to climate change (45% more likely / 33% less likely)
Americans are also more likely on net to support a candidate who favors building more nuclear power plants in the U.S. to provide emissions-free electricity (51% support / 30% oppose).
The poll additionally assessed support for a wide range of policies related to climate, energy, and the environment. Confirming what we’ve seen in previous polling, incentives for energy efficiency are particularly popular as large majorities say that they support each of the following:
- Providing tax incentives to make homes more energy efficient (85% support)
- Providing tax incentives to make businesses more energy efficient (80% support)
- Enforcing stricter energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances (77% support)
The poll additionally yields some encouraging findings on the topics of justice, polluter accountability, and international action as large majorities of Americans support each of the following:
- Implementing policies that address environmental injustices and disparities in low-income and minority communities (78% support)
- Establishing a carbon tax on large polluters (76%)
- Supporting and adhering to international climate agreements like the Paris Agreement (73%)
In terms of energy production, the poll findings are somewhat mixed and reveal a public appetite for increasing energy production of all kinds – including both clean energy and fossil fuels. While proposals to boost solar and wind energy earn by far the highest support, majorities say that they favor each of the following:
- Making it easier to build new solar power plants (83% support)
- Making it easier to build new wind farms (79%)
- Making it easier to drill for fossil fuels and build new fossil fuel pipelines (62%)
- Building more nuclear power plants (55%)
Data for Progress – Following COP28, “concern” and “worry” are voters’ most common reactions to hearing that the world is falling short on limiting global warming [Article, Crosstabs]
Gauging voters’ reactions to the Global Stocktake that was discussed at COP28 to assess progress on international climate goals, Data for Progress find that “concern” and “worry” are the dominant emotions when voters hear that “countries are not currently on track to meet the goal of reducing warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
When asked to choose up to three emotions in response to this information, more voters say that they are “concerned” and “worried” than any other emotions:
- Concerned – 42%
- Worried – 36%
- Skeptical – 25%
- Doubtful – 22%
- Indifferent – 22%
- Sad – 20%
- Hopeful – 16%
- Angry – 13%
- Optimistic – 12%
- Happy – 6%
- Guilty – 3%
While “concerned” and “worried” are the most common reactions among Democrats and independents, Republicans are more divided between feeling concerned (32%), skeptical (33%), and indifferent (34%).
These mixed reactions among Republicans should not be interpreted as outright dismissal of the problem, however. In a separate question about the importance that voters attach to climate change, about one-half of Republicans (52%) say that they “care about climate change” but do not rank it as “one of the most important issues” to them.
An additional one in ten Republicans (11%) say that climate change is one of the most important issues to them, while about one-third (34%) say that they don’t care about climate change.
Overall, only 17% of voters say that they don’t care about climate change while about one-third (32%) say that it is one of the most important issues to them. Roughly half of voters (48%) place themselves in the middle by saying that they care about the issue but don’t rank it as one of the most important to them personally.
AP + NORC – Climate change and the environment rank as Democrats’ top issue priority for 2024 [Article]
The annual AP-NORC poll of the “public’s agenda” for the year finds that climate and the environment continue to rank a tier or two below the very top issues for the public writ large but take on paramount importance for Democrats.
Overall, when Americans are asked to list up to five problems that they would like the government to be working on in 2024, foreign policy issues and immigration currently top the list:
- Foreign policy – 38%
- Immigration – 35%
- Inflation – 30%
- The economy generally – 24%
- Education/student debt – 22%
- Environment/climate change – 21%
- Health care reform – 17%
- Poverty/hunger/homelessness – 16%
- (All other issues below 16%)
Prioritization of the environment and climate change is slightly down from a year ago (21%, down from 26% in Dec. 2022) while foreign policy (38%, up from 18% in Dec. 2022) has surged as a priority.
Looking at the top issues among Democrats, meanwhile, the environment and climate change rank on par with foreign policy and ahead of any other issue priorities for 2024:
- Environment/climate change – 36%
- Foreign policy – 34%
- Education/student debt – 25%
- Inflation – 22%
- Immigration – 22%
- Health care reform – 22%
[MI] LCV – Michigan residents support the state investing in EVs and anticipate that most vehicle sales will be EVs within the next 20 years; top messages frame domestic EV manufacturing as a way to keep the auto industry in Michigan long-term and to prevent job losses to other states and China [Release, Deck]
In this poll of Michiganders, LCV finds majority support for the state investing in electric vehicles in order to keep Michigan competitive in the auto industry and to prevent job losses to other states and China.
Overall, 55% of Michiganders favor investing in building more electric vehicles in Michigan with 40% opposed. Most recognize that electric vehicles are the future, with 57% believing that the majority of new car sales will be electric vehicles sometime in the next 20 years.
Pulling from the “key findings” included in the poll release, with emphasis added in bold:
“People want to invest in making EVs in Michigan, even if they personally don’t see a huge benefit in driving an EV or having more on the road. They understand the auto industry is going that way and want to beat Michigan’s competitors to the punch.
People get that the UAW strike was about better pay, not EVs. The UAW came out of this strike popular, and people understood why they were striking.
People think that if we don’t play in the EV game, China wins. They’re more concerned that we let China win by ceding the industry to them than they are that we let China win by building EVs in Michigan.
As long as we are standing with the auto industry and not against their past record, people are on our side. They want to see Ford, GM, and Stellantis win, and they know that means making EVs here.
People get that good-paying jobs and autos are intrinsically tied together in Michigan. They respond to messaging around keeping and growing the good auto jobs that pay enough to raise a family in Michigan.”
The deck additionally identifies the following statements as the “top tier” of messages in support of electric vehicle investment in Michigan, underlining the salience of domestic manufacturing and keeping auto industry jobs in Michigan:
- [FUTURE OF MICHIGAN] Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis are making big bets on electric vehicles, and we want them to stay here and grow our Michigan economy instead of shipping those jobs overseas or to southern states like Tennessee and Kentucky.
- [GOOD JOBS] We’re already putting thousands of Michiganders to work at good-paying jobs making electric vehicles and batteries. Michigan is number one in the country for new clean energy jobs now – and we need to stay there. Clean manufacturing will create more jobs that can’t be outsourced and don’t require college degrees. We should keep that progress going and grow Michigan’s middle class.
- [ENERGY INDEPENDENCE] Building more electric vehicles right here in Michigan will help make our country energy independent. Instead of relying on foreign oil from unstable dictators overseas, we’ll be using American-made electricity.
- [SUPPLY CHAINS] Our country has lost too many jobs to countries like China, and if we sit still we’ll lose more. Taking the lead on electric vehicle manufacturing will help us produce more cars here instead of overseas, fix our supply chain, and keep and bring good-paying jobs to Michigan.
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