Environmental Polling Roundup – January 24, 2025
Headlines
AP + NORC – There is little public support for increasing drilling on public lands or withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement [Release, Topline]
Navigator – Voters across parties lean in favor of ending subsidies for oil and gas companies [Release, Deck, Topline]
Yale + GMU – Americans are inclined to support climate justice goals, but most Americans – including those who are concerned about climate change – aren’t familiar with the concept [Release, Public Postprint]
Key Takeaways
There is little public appetite for Trump’s Day One actions on climate and energy. Polling Americans shortly before Inauguration Day, AP and NORC found that most Americans don’t want to increase drilling on public lands or to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement – putting the public at odds with two of the major actions that Trump took on Day One of his second term. Public opinion on these issues is likely to change somewhat in the coming weeks, as there is a segment of the electorate that will reflexively rally behind any decision Trump makes (as well as a segment that will reflexively rally against any of his decisions). It’s also worth noting that voters are not inclined to give Trump the benefit of the doubt on environmental issues: exit-style polls in November showed that voters trusted Harris over Trump by a wide margin to deal with climate change, and also that his own supporters had relatively little faith in him to handle the issue.
Voters across the political spectrum are on board with ending oil and gas subsidies. In presenting voters with a number of potential budget cuts that Republicans in Congress could pursue, Navigator finds that far more voters support than oppose ending subsidies for oil and gas companies. Further, a majority of Republican voters say that they support ending fossil fuel subsidies. These findings are consistent with previous research: a 2023 survey by Yale and George Mason, for example, found that around two-thirds of voters – including the majority of Republicans – agree that fossil fuel companies should not receive financial support from the government.
Good Data Points to Highlight
- [Paris Climate Agreement] Only 21% of Americans support withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, with 52% opposed [AP + NORC]
- [Drilling] Only 35% of Americans support increasing oil drilling on public lands, with 39% opposed [AP + NORC]
- [Oil + Gas Subsidies] Voters support ending subsidies for oil and gas companies by a 48%-29% margin [Navigator]
Full Roundup
AP + NORC – There is little public support for increasing drilling on public lands or withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement [Release, Topline]
Americans don’t want to increase drilling on public lands. Surveying Americans shortly before Trump’s recent executive order to open up more public lands and waters for drilling, AP and NORC found that only around one-third of Americans (35%) want to increase oil drilling on public lands.
Meanwhile, around two in five (39%) oppose the idea of increasing drilling on public lands and one-quarter (25%) say that they neither favor nor oppose the idea.
Voters have consistently opposed withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. AP and NORC find that only 21% of Americans support withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, while 52% oppose the idea. This is consistent with past polling: most Americans said that the United States should remain in the Paris Agreement shortly before Trump withdrew from it for the first time in 2017, and the majority of Americans also agreed with Biden’s decision to re-enter the agreement in 2021.
Navigator – Voters across parties lean in favor of ending subsidies for oil and gas companies [Release, Deck, Topline]
More voters support than oppose ending fossil fuel subsidies. Nearly half of voters (48%) support ending subsidies for oil and gas companies when the idea is presented as part of a potential new Republican tax plan, while just 29% oppose ending fossil fuel subsidies.
Half of Republican voters are on board with ending fossil fuel subsidies. Navigator finds that Democrats (45% support / 34% oppose), independents (47% support / 20% oppose), and Republicans (53% support / 26% oppose) all support the idea by double-digit margins.
While the framing of the proposal as part of a potential GOP tax plan here may have led more Republicans to agree with it, we’ve seen high Republican support for ending fossil fuel subsidies in the past. A 2023 survey by Yale and George Mason, for example, found that 66% of voters – including 54% of Republicans – said that fossil fuel companies shouldn’t receive financial support from the government.
Yale + GMU – Americans are inclined to support climate justice goals, but most Americans – including those who are concerned about climate change – aren’t familiar with the concept [Release, Public Postprint]
Americans support the idea of climate justice once they learn about it, but awareness is still low. In a survey that was conducted in collaboration with several partner groups from across the environmental movement, Yale and GMU found that most Americans support the idea of climate justice after learning about it (53% support / 19% oppose). However, only around one-third have heard of the concept.
To effectively build support for climate justice goals, advocates should incorporate climate justice more explicitly in their communication, provide specific examples to clarify the idea, and tailor their messaging to their audience. Yale, GMU, and their partners offer the following recommendations for advocates based on this research:
“Existing climate justice efforts should incorporate climate justice communication more explicitly, and they need resources to do so. Although current awareness of climate justice is low, many Americans are receptive to learning about and supporting climate justice goals. These efforts may include direct outreach, as well as formal and informal education from organizers and public institutions such as schools and libraries, companies, and governments.
Communication about climate justice should describe specific ways that climate change harms some people more than others, as well as the practical benefits of climate justice initiatives. For example, investments in infrastructure for vulnerable communities can reduce everyone’s risks from climate change impacts such as flooding. Moreover, many existing policies that promote climate justice – such as green job training and reskilling programs, transitioning to renewable energy, and home weatherization – are already popular among the U.S. public, so linking climate justice concepts to these benefits may build support.
There are different audiences for climate justice communication. On the one hand, communities of color, and those who are concerned about racial justice, are more supportive of climate justice but are not necessarily more aware of it. Educating this audience about climate justice is an important priority. On the other hand, audiences that are less concerned about climate change might dismiss the term ‘climate justice’ altogether, even though many people in this group may benefit from climate justice initiatives such as job creation and pollution reduction. In these cases, it may be preferable to avoid direct usage of the term ‘climate justice’ and talk more about local harms and benefits. For all audiences, stories and testimonials from people in affected communities can make the issue more relatable and urgent.
Finally, climate justice engagement at all levels should meaningfully incorporate affected communities in decision-making. Community trust is crucial to supporting climate justice, both for decision-makers and researchers. Our study illustrates how researchers can incorporate practitioner perspectives in national and international studies on climate justice, but efforts should not end there. Connecting experts to affected communities is key.”
Related Resources
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