Environmental Polling Roundup – January 16, 2026
Headlines
The Economist + YouGov – Americans believe that U.S. intervention in Venezuela is more about getting access to oil than about drugs, corruption, or any other rationale [Topline, Crosstabs]
Navigator – Most voters say that energy costs have gotten worse since Trump took office, and a plurality also say that the country has become less energy independent [Website, Topline]
Quinnipiac – Voters oppose the U.S. taking over Venezuela’s oil sales by a wide margin [Website, Release + Topline]
Climate Power – Voters don’t believe that intervention in Venezuela will lower domestic energy prices, and messages about the administration’s actions in Venezuela are far more effective when they tie back to the high cost of living in the U.S. [Website]
Data for Progress – Voters believe that the administration is focused more on Venezuela than on the cost of living, and say that the U.S. should prioritize domestic clean energy development over getting control of Venezuela’s oil [Website, Crosstabs]
Key Takeaways
Americans think that oil is the main reason for U.S. involvement in Venezuela, and don’t want the U.S. taking over Venezuela’s oil supply. In new polls both from The Economist and YouGov and from Data for Progress, Americans say that the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela was more about getting access to oil than about the administration’s stated goal of combatting drug trafficking.
The Economist and YouGov further find that, by a greater than two-to-one margin (24% yes / 54% no), Americans say that the U.S. should not take Venezuela’s oil.
This provides advocates with a clear and persuasive messaging lane that we shouldn’t be dragged into yet another expensive foreign conflict over oil when people are struggling with the cost of living here at home.
In message testing on the topic, Climate Power finds that connecting the administration’s actions in Venezuela to the cost of living in the U.S. is essential for persuasive messaging. While voters aren’t particularly moved by messaging that criticizes the decision to intervene in Venezuela for the sake of oil without mentioning the cost of living, they are very persuaded by a message that connects Venezuela back to Americans’ struggles with affordability:
“[Trump] promised ‘no more wars,’ to lower costs, and to put America first—but he’s doing the opposite. While families struggle to afford everyday expenses, Trump is diverting taxpayer dollars to foreign entanglements instead of our communities. Instead of lowering utility bills and creating good-paying clean energy jobs, he’s threatening those projects while prioritizing giveaways to wealthy special interests. American families can’t afford Trump’s policies.”
Voters aren’t buying the administration’s deflections on energy prices. As the Trump administration continues to play defense over the cost of living, polls show that their go-to argument over rising electricity costs–that these cost increases are the lingering effects of Biden’s policies–is wearing thin with voters.
Navigator finds that most voters believe that energy costs have gotten worse since Trump’s second term started. Even among Republicans, who widely say that the overall economy has improved under Trump, only one-third believe that energy costs specifically have gotten better since Trump took office.
And when asked who they blame for various increases in the cost of living–including overall inflation, rising health care premiums, and electricity price hikes–voters are about twice as likely to blame Trump and Republicans in Congress as they are to blame Democrats.
Compared to overall inflation and the rising cost of health care, however, voters are still relatively more likely to say that they don’t know which party to blame more for the rise in electricity costs–leaving lots of room for education and persuasion about the topic.
Good Data Points to Highlight
[Venezuela + Oil] Americans oppose the U.S. taking Venezuela’s oil by a greater than two-to-one margin (24% yes / 54% no) [The Economist + YouGov]
[Energy Costs] 56% of voters say that energy costs have gotten worse since Trump took office, while just 18% say that energy costs have gotten better [Navigator]
Full Roundup
The Economist + YouGov – Americans believe that U.S. intervention in Venezuela is more about getting access to oil than about drugs, corruption, or any other rationale [Topline, Crosstabs]
Americans choose oil as the clearest rationale for the U.S. intervening in Venezuela. When asked to select the reasons for the U.S. taking military action in Venezuela from a list of possible rationales, Americans are 25+ points more likely to say that gaining access to oil (62%) was a reason for the intervention than any other rationale:
- Gaining access to oil – 62% selected as a reason
- Removing a corrupt leader – 42%
- Stopping drug trafficking – 37%
- Distracting Americans from domestic issues – 31%
- Increasing U.S. global power – 29%
- Stopping terrorism – 21%
- Reducing immigration to the U.S. – 15%
- Promoting democracy – 12%
Democrats and independents agree that oil was the main reason for U.S. action, while Republicans tow the party line about drugs and corruption. Democrats (75%) and independents (65%) both choose oil as the main reason for the U.S.’s actions in Venezuela, while far fewer believe the administration’s rationales about drugs and corruption. In fact, independents are just as likely to say that the operation was done to distract Americans from domestic issues (32%) as to say that it was done to stop drug trafficking (32%).
Large majorities of Republicans echo the administration’s stated rationales about stopping drug trafficking (67%) and removing a corrupt leader (66%), though around half of Republicans (48%) also say that gaining access to oil was a motivating factor.
Only one-quarter of Americans say that the country should take Venezuela’s oil. By a greater than two-to-one margin (24% yes / 54% no), Americans say that the U.S. should not take the oil in Venezuela. Only around one in six independents (16% yes / 61% no) say that the U.S. should take the oil. And even among Republicans, only about half (51% yes / 20% no / 29% not sure) say that the U.S. should take Venezuela’s oil.
Navigator – Most voters say that energy costs have gotten worse since Trump took office, and a plurality also say that the country has become less energy independent [Website, Topline]
The majority of voters say that energy costs have gotten worse since Trump took office. Most voters say that energy costs have gotten worse since Trump’s second term started (18% better / 56% worse), including the majority of independents (12% better / 55% worse).
Even among Republicans, who widely say that the economy overall has improved since Trump took office for the second time, only around one-third (34%) say that energy costs have gotten better and nearly as many (28%) acknowledge that energy costs have gotten worse during Trump’s second term.
A large majority continue to report that their own utility costs are rising. At the personal level, nearly seven in ten voters (69%)–including majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (65%), and Republicans (58%)–say that costs they pay for utilities like electricity have gone up during Trump’s second term.
A plurality of voters say that the country has become less energy independent under Trump. Voters are ten points more likely to say that energy independence has gotten worse since Trump took office again (38%) than to say it has gotten better (28%). Independent voters are nearly twice as likely to say that energy independence is moving in a negative direction (38%) than a positive direction (20%) under Trump.
Voters blame Trump and Republicans more than Democrats for rising electricity costs, but many aren’t sure who to blame. When asked to choose which party they blame more for various costs going up, voters are about twice as likely to blame Republicans than to blame Democrats:
- Costs generally rising – 22% blame Democrats in Congress / 44% blame Trump and Republicans in Congress
- Health care premiums going up – 21% Democrats in Congress / 43% Trump and Republicans in Congress
- Electricity costs going up – 18% Democrats in Congress / 34% Trump and Republicans in Congress
However, compared to general inflation (66%) and to health care premiums going up (64%), voters are less likely to say that they blame one party over the other for electricity costs going up (52%).
Quinnipiac – Voters oppose the U.S. taking over Venezuela’s oil sales by a wide margin [Website, Release + Topline]
Most voters oppose the U.S. taking over Venezuela’s oil sales. Similar to what The Economist and YouGov found among U.S. adults this week, Quinnipiac finds that the idea of the U.S. taking control of Venezuela’s oil is unpopular with U.S. voters.
Voters oppose the idea of the U.S. controlling Venezuela’s oil sales by a 17-point margin (38% support / 55% oppose). This includes a two-to-one margin of opposition (31% support / 62% oppose) among independent voters.
Climate Power – Voters don’t believe that intervention in Venezuela will lower domestic energy prices, and messages about the administration’s actions in Venezuela are far more effective when they tie back to the high cost of living in the U.S. [Website]
Voters are skeptical that intervention in Venezuela will lower U.S. energy costs. Around two in five voters (39%) believe that military action in Venezuela will lower U.S. energy costs, while 32% don’t expect any impact and 28% believe that it will increase U.S. energy prices.
Messaging against the intervention in Venezuela is far more effective when it ties back to the cost of living in the U.S. Working with Blue Rose Research, Climate Power finds that messages about Venezuela that connect the topic to the cost of living perform far better than average when compared to other messages in terms of lowering Trump’s approval. Messages that criticize the intervention without connecting it to the cost of living, meanwhile, perform considerably worse than average.
Pulling from Climate Power’s memo on their research:
“Of 14 messages tested and evaluated on their ability to shift Trump approval, the most effective ones all centered on high costs for everyday Americans. The most effective message in lowering Trump’s approval combines affordability concerns with Trump breaking his ‘America First’ promise.
- 97th percentile: ‘[Trump] promised no more wars, to lower costs, and to put America first—but he’s doing the opposite. While families struggle to afford everyday expenses, Trump is diverting taxpayer dollars to foreign entanglements instead of our communities. Instead of lowering utility bills and creating good-paying clean energy jobs, he’s threatening those projects while prioritizing giveaways to wealthy special interests. American families can’t afford Trump’s policies.’
While ties to the Trump administration’s corruption are notable, it is essential to lead with costs. Messages that contrast voters’ economic hardships with Trump’s actions benefiting wealthy or corporate interests, such as billionaires writing their own rules or taxpayer subsidies for big oil, also perform strongly.
- 87th percentile: ‘American families’ groceries are getting too expensive, their rents are too high, and their utility bills keep skyrocketing. What is Donald Trump working on instead? Invading Venezuela to help oil and gas CEOs, while letting billionaires write their own rules for AI and data centers and building a ballroom for parties with his rich donors. Donald Trump cares about them. Not you.’
- 82nd percentile: ‘Families are struggling with skyrocketing grocery prices, healthcare costs, rent, and utility bills while Trump is focused on rewarding his corporate oil donors by taking control of Venezuela and even using American taxpayer dollars to subsidize Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. That means more record profits for rich oil CEOs, while everyday American families will continue to face higher prices at the pump, grocery stores, and in their homes.’
Messages that emphasize oil or clean energy impacts without tying them to household costs fall well below average in message testing. This suggests that abstract or industry-centered energy arguments must be connected to everyday economic consequences.
- 17th percentile: ‘True energy independence doesn’t come from threatening other nations for their oil. It comes from investing in cheaper, cleaner, and more reliable energy right here at home. Escalating military action in Venezuela while cutting back on our own clean energy growth only leaves us more vulnerable to global oil shocks, raising costs for working families.’
- 22nd percentile: ‘Real national security doesn’t come from threatening other countries for their oil. It’s about strengthening America right here at home. When we rely on foreign oil from unstable regions, it hikes up gas prices, makes everything more expensive, and can pull us into conflicts far away. Investing in American-made energy secures our jobs, lowers costs, and makes our country safer and independent, free from foreign influence and overseas crises.’”
Data for Progress – Voters believe that the administration is focused more on Venezuela than on the cost of living, and say that the U.S. should prioritize domestic clean energy development over getting control of Venezuela’s oil [Website, Crosstabs]
By a two-to-one margin, voters believe that the Trump administration is more focused on Venezuela than on lowering costs. When asked to choose which issue they think the Trump administration is prioritizing more, 64% of voters say that the Trump administration is focusing more on intervening in Venezuela while only around three in ten (31%) say that the Trump administration is focusing more on lowering costs.
Among independents, only around one-quarter (27%) believe that the administration is prioritizing the cost of living more while two-thirds (67%) say that the administration is focusing more on intervening in Venezuela.
Given how consistently voters have been saying that the cost of living should be the federal government’s top focus, this perceived misalignment of priorities helps explain why the contrast between the administration’s actions in Venezuela and the high cost of living for everyday Americans–like in the messaging guidance shared this week by Climate Power–is so powerful.
Voters say that oil was the main reason for the Maduro raid. Just as The Economist and YouGov found among U.S. adults, Data for Progress finds that U.S. voters believe that oil was more of a factor than the administration’s stated rationales for military action in Venezuela.
When asked to choose the single main reason for the raid, around half of voters (52%)–including majorities of Democrats (75%) and independents (60%)–say that it was to increase U.S. control over Venezuelan oil resources. Meanwhile, around one-third of voters (35%) believe that it was done mainly to crack down on drug trafficking from Venezuela to the U.S. and only 7% believe that it was mainly done to address human rights abuses in Venezuela.
By a wide margin, voters say that domestic clean energy development should be a higher priority than taking over Venezuela’s oil resources. When asked to choose which should be a higher priority for U.S. energy policy, voters prefer that the country focus on investing in the development of clean energy like wind and solar in the U.S. (59%) over increasing control of Venezuela’s resources and importing the oil to the U.S. (37%) by a 22-point margin.
This margin is even wider among independent voters, who are twice as likely to say that the U.S. should prioritize domestic clean energy investment (62%) than to say that it should prioritize control of Venezuela’s oil (31%).
Related Resources
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 6th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 23rd, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 27th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.