Environmental Polling Roundup – January 10, 2025
Headlines
Navigator – Voters see climate/environment as one of the biggest disconnects between their own priorities and the priorities of Trump and Republicans in Congress [Release, Deck]
AP-NORC – More Democrats name climate/environment as a top priority for the country in 2025 than any other issue [Release, Topline, Full Report]
Ipsos – Most Americans expect more extreme weather and rising global temperatures in 2025, though the U.S. public still lags behind comparable countries in predicting climate change impacts [Release, Full Report]
Key Takeaways
Voters see climate/environment as one of the biggest points of difference between their own priorities and the priorities of Trump and Republicans in Congress. Navigator finds large incongruities when voters are asked to name the issues that the president and Congress should focus most on and the issues that Trump and Republicans are focused most on. Relative to their own personal priorities, voters believe that Trump and Republicans are focusing much more on immigration and too little on climate/environment, the cost of living, health care, housing, and Social Security and Medicare. And among voters’ top 20 issue priorities, climate/environment is the one that voters believe Trump and Republicans are least focused on.
These findings show that voters recognize that Trump and congressional Republicans are out of step with the public on climate and environmental issues. Further, of all the various threats posed by a second Trump administration, the notions that he will roll back climate progress and environmental protections rank among the most credible to voters.
Climate/environment remains a singularly important priority for the Democratic electorate. In their own assessment of the public’s top issue priorities, AP-NORC finds that Democrats are more likely to name climate/environment as a top priority for the country in 2025 than any other issue. This is the third straight time that AP-NORC have found climate/environment to be Democrats’ top concern going into the new year, following similar surveys conducted late in 2022 and 2023.
The degree to which Democratic voters now prioritize climate change has gone somewhat under the radar in political media, but is important for understanding what mobilizes the Democratic base as it prepares to mount a second Trump “Resistance” – particularly as a fight over IRA repeal looms on the horizon and a handful of vulnerable Republican House members will hold deciding votes.
Full Roundup
Navigator – Voters see climate/environment as one of the biggest disconnects between their own priorities and the priorities of Trump and Republicans in Congress [Release, Deck]
Hardly any voters believe that Trump and Republicans in Congress will focus on climate change and the environment. When asked to choose up to five issues that they believe Trump and Republicans in Congress are most focused on, just 4% of voters rank climate change and the environment among the top priorities that the Republican administration and Congress will work on.
Voters perceive immigration (65%) as by far the biggest focus of Trump and Republicans, followed by inflation and the cost of living (34%), taxes (30%), jobs and the economy (29%), and government deficits and spending (29%).
More than other issues, voters believe that Trump and Republicans are focusing too little on climate change, the cost of living, health care, housing, and Social Security and Medicare. While just 4% of voters believe that climate change and the environment is a top focus for Trump and Republicans, 18% say that climate change and the environment is one of the issues that the government should focus most on.
This 14-point gap between voters’ own prioritization of climate/environment and the perceived prioritization of Trump and Republicans is one of the widest for any issue. The cost of living is the only issue that shows a significantly larger drop between voters’ own priorities and the perceived priorities of Trump and Congress (24 points), with climate change (14 points) ranking on par with health care (17 points), housing (13 points), and Social Security and Medicare (13 points) as issues that voters prioritize more than they believe Trump and Republicans in Congress will.
AP-NORC – More Democrats name climate/environment as a top priority for the country in 2025 than any other issue [Release, Topline, Full Report]
Along with economic concerns, immigration is top-of-mind for Americans as a priority this year. In an open-ended question that allowed respondents to volunteer up to five priorities, AP-NORC finds that more Americans name immigration (47%) as a top priority for the country in 2025 than any other single issue. It’s important to note that the economy (30%) and inflation (29%) would rank as the public’s top priority if combined together, though the AP-NORC analysis separates these into distinct issues.
Foreign policy (35%) also ranks among Americans’ biggest issue concerns, and climate/environment (21%) ranked fifth on the list in terms of overall mentions – slightly ahead of other common priorities including health care (17%), education/student debt (16%), and abortion/women’s rights (16%).
Democrats and Republicans continue to have very different priorities, with climate/environment remaining the top issue for Democrats. One of the difficulties in assessing Americans’ top overall issue concerns is that Democrats and Republicans tend to have very different priorities.
AP-NORC finds that immigration (69%) ranks well ahead of any other issue for Republicans, who are largely responsible for driving immigration to the top spot overall. Foreign policy (40%), inflation (36%), and the economy (35%) also rank as major priorities for Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, are more likely to name the environment/climate change (36%) as a top priority for the country than any other issue. This is consistent with past research, as AP-NORC also found that climate/environment ranked as Democrats’ biggest issue priority going into 2023 and 2024.
Immigration (32%), foreign policy (30%), the economy (25%), and inflation (23%) round out Democrats’ top five issue concerns going into 2025.
Ipsos – Most Americans expect more extreme weather and rising global temperatures in 2025, though the U.S. public still lags behind comparable countries in predicting climate change impacts [Release, Full Report]
Most Americans are anticipating more extreme weather and another rise in global temperatures this year. Around two-thirds of Americans say that average global temperatures are likely to increase in 2025 (67%) and that there will likely be more extreme weather events in the U.S. in 2025 than there were in 2024 (66%).
Americans are still less likely to predict climate impacts this year than citizens of other major economies. While most Americans do expect to see rising global temperatures and increasingly severe weather, they are generally less likely than people in other countries to predict these climate impacts.
Taking the average across the 33 nations surveyed by Ipsos, 80% of people say that global temperatures are likely to increase this year. This average is 13 points higher than in the U.S. (67%), which ranked the second-lowest of any country surveyed in its beliefs about rising global temperatures.
Additionally, the cross-country average of people expecting more extreme weather in their country this year is six points higher (72%) than in the U.S. (66%). That said, Americans’ beliefs that extreme weather will get worse in their country this year are roughly on par with comparable nations such as Great Britain (70%), Canada (68%), and Germany (63%).
Related Resources
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