Environmental Polling Roundup – February 23, 2024
HEADLINES
Navigator – Climate change ranks as one of President Biden and Democrats’ most significant issue advantages over Republicans [Release, Deck]
EDF Action – Republican EV drivers outnumber Democratic EV drivers in many states, based on voter file data and vehicle records [CNN Article, EDF Action Release]
[NJ] Rutgers-Eagleton – New Jerseyans are divided on the state’s plan to phase out new gas-powered vehicles by 2035; while they foresee benefits for health and air quality, costs are a clear concern [Release, including topline and crosstabs]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Climate change policy is, once again, a key strength for Democrats this year. In asking voters who they trust more to handle various issues, Navigator finds that climate change and the environment rank on par with abortion as President Biden and Democrats’ greatest issue advantage over Republicans. This echoes what polls showed before and directly after the 2022 election, when abortion and climate/environment stood out as key drivers of support for Democratic candidates in the midterms.
- Partisanship appears to play more of a role in Americans’ attitudes about EV policy than in their personal vehicle choices. Despite consistent and deep partisan divides in Americans’ attitudes about electric vehicles, a new analysis by EDF Action combining consumer data and voter file data indicates that Republican EV drivers outnumber Democratic EV drivers in many states. These new findings suggest that, while voters tend to have reflexively partisan responses to the topic of electric vehicles in polls, their decisions are shaped more by practical factors such as costs and the availability of charging infrastructure when they’re actually confronted with a decision about what kind of vehicle to buy.
FULL ROUNDUP
Navigator – Climate change ranks as one of President Biden and Democrats’ most significant issue advantages over Republicans [Release, Deck]
New polling from Navigator on voters’ issue priorities shows that climate change and the environment continue to rank among the Democratic Party’s most significant issue strengths – a finding that has become remarkably consistent in public opinion research.
When voters are asked who they trust more to handle several issues, either President Biden and Democrats or Republicans, no issue advantage for either party surpasses Democrats’ advantage on climate change and the environment. Here are the margins by which voters trust one party over the other on each of the 16 issues that were included in the poll:
- Climate change and the environment – Democrats +15
- Abortion – Democrats +15
- Student loans – Democrats +14
- Health care – Democrats +12
- Social Security and Medicare – Democrats +8
- Democracy – Democrats +7
- Education – Democrats +6
- The coronavirus pandemic – Democrats +4
- Corruption in government – Republicans +1
- Guns – Republicans +6
- Jobs and the economy – Republicans +8
- The cost of living – Republicans +8
- Inflation – Republicans +9
- Immigration – Republicans +11
- Crime – Republicans +12
- National security and foreign policy – Republicans +13
In terms of the relative weight that voters place on each of these issues, economic issues like inflation continue to top voters’ list of priorities. Nearly half of voters (49%) rank inflation as one of the four most important issues to them, and more than two in five (43%) choose jobs and the economy as a top four priority.
Climate change and the environment rank in the middle tier of voter priorities overall. Just over one in five voters (22%) say that climate change and the environment is a top four issue for them, placing it roughly on par with an assortment of other issues such as crime (25%), guns (22%), and abortion (20%).
Democrats, meanwhile, remain particularly likely to prioritize climate change and the environment. Around one-third of Democrats (34%) name climate change and the environment as a top four priority, placing it in the top tier of Democrats’ issue concerns along with health care (40%), inflation (39%), jobs and the economy (38%), and guns (37%).
EDF Action – Republican EV drivers outnumber Democratic EV drivers in many states, based on voter file data and vehicle records [CNN Article, EDAF Release]
While polls consistently demonstrate a deep partisan divide over the electric vehicle transition, this novel analysis by EDF Action finds that there may be far less of a partisan split when it comes to actual consumer choices about EVs.
By linking vehicle consumer data (insurance records, maintenance records, etc.) to voter file information provided by voter data firm L2, EDF Action was able to estimate the partisan breakdown of electric vehicle drivers in states that have party registration for voters.
Interestingly, this analysis suggests that the partisan breakdown of electric vehicle drivers in most states is not that dissimilar from the partisan breakdown of the state in general – indicating that the market for EVs is not dominated by left-leaning voters. In fact, in many states, there appear to be more registered Republicans driving electric vehicles than registered Democrats.
Pulling from the CNN article linked above, with emphasis added in bold:
“Electric vehicle sales hit a new milestone last year, with more than a million sold across the US — and buyers might not be following partisan patterns, new data suggests…
In nine of the 31 states and DC that register voters by party, for example, more Republican voters are linked to records of electric vehicles – including insurance and repair records – than Democrats. Republicans, independents and third-party voters associated with electric vehicles also exceed Democrats in 24 of those states…
The data doesn’t include each voter with an electric vehicle, but it does offer some insight into political attitudes among consumers.
Many of the drivers of electric vehicles adoption are unrelated to politics, according to market experts. Before the vehicles become more mainstream, for example, their availability and the proximity to charging infrastructure affects whether consumers buy them…
Among new vehicle shoppers who are not considering an electric vehicle, JD Power’s research has found, ‘Consistently, the number one reason that [these shoppers] cite is lack of charging station availability,’ said Stewart Stropp, executive director of the agency’s EV intelligence. In states like California, the average road miles between public chargers is only nine, while in North Dakota, there can be more than 800 miles between chargers, he said…
Essentially, there is a mix of market factors, such as consumer awareness, infrastructure, incentives and availability, that drive sales. States that have more of those things, such as California, have more consumer interest.
Still, public opinion research suggests interest in electric vehicles has some partisan roots, even if the landscape may be changing.
A 2023 Gallup poll found that 71% of Republicans would not consider buying an electric vehicle, compared with 17% of Democrats. Similarly, a 2023 Pew Research survey found that 70% of Republican or Republican-leaning Americans were unlikely to consider one.
And while the new state-level evidence in the adoption of electric vehicles might show less of a partisan divide, one left-leaning state still has the most in the country. More than one-third of electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were registered in California, according to data from the US Department of Energy in 2022.”
There are several possible explanations for the discrepancy between this consumer data and partisans’ stated interest in electric vehicles in polls. One important consideration is that the percentage of voters who are actively looking to purchase a vehicle at any given time is quite low.
There are somewhere around 160 million registered voters in the U.S. and around 15 million consumer vehicles sold in the U.S. in a typical year, so the number of voters exceeds the number of car buyers by a factor of around ten to one. Polls of the U.S. adult population or the nationwide electorate, therefore, are going to mostly include people who aren’t actually in the market for a vehicle.
In other words, the vast majority of Democrats who express their interest in an electric vehicle in a poll and the vast majority of Republicans who express their disinterest aren’t actually being faced with a decision about which car to buy. This makes a poll question about electric vehicle interest more of a theoretical exercise, and also an easy way for partisans to signal where they stand politically.
When it comes to actual market decisions, meanwhile, partisanship may still play a role but appears to be diluted by practical considerations such as purchasing price and charging infrastructure – helping to explain why Democrats and Republicans may be opting for electric vehicles in more similar proportions than the polling data would suggest.
[NJ] Rutgers-Eagleton – New Jerseyans are divided on the state’s plan to phase out new gas-powered vehicles by 2035; while they foresee benefits for health and air quality, costs are a clear concern [Release, including topline and crosstabs]
Also on the topic of electric vehicles, the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll finds that New Jerseyans have mixed attitudes about the state’s plan to “phase out the sale of new gas-powered cars completely by 2035.”
Overall, New Jerseyans lean against the plan by a small margin (43% support / 50% oppose). While it earns majority backing from Democrats (68% support / 26% oppose), New Jersey Republicans oppose the plan by an overwhelming margin (15% support / 80% oppose).
These results in New Jersey mirror the kind of partisan divide we see in nationwide polling about phasing out gas-powered vehicles. Pew found last year, for example, that 64% of Democrats nationwide support phasing out the production of new gasoline cars and trucks by 2035 while 84% of Republicans oppose the idea.
In New Jersey, the Rutgers-Eagleton poll finds that most residents agree that phasing out gasoline-powered cars will have a positive impact on air quality (58%). Additionally, roughly half (51%) believe that the plan will have a positive effect on New Jerseyans’ health. However, residents are more pessimistic about how the plan will impact the state economy (30% positive / 44% negative) and their own personal finances (19% positive / 47% negative).
Related Resources
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