Environmental Polling Roundup – December 6, 2024
Headlines
ecoAmerica – Americans have grown more concerned about climate change since before the election, with many saying that Trump’s victory deepened their concerns [Release, Report, Topline]
Navigator – Voters, including swing voters, side more with clean energy advocates in the debate over the country’s energy future [Release, Deck]
Key Takeaways
- We’re starting to see indications of a “thermostatic” increase in environmental concern in response to Trump’s victory. The thermostatic model of public opinion suggests that public sentiment tends to shift in the opposite direction of policy, providing a check on whichever party is in power because voters are wary of policy moving too far to either side. There’s a lot of good evidence to support this model, such as the large drop-off in support for clean energy that we saw when Biden took office. Now, as the thermostatic model would predict, we’re starting to see a post-election reversion in the opposite direction: ecoAmerica finds that the public’s climate concerns have increased since before the election, with about half of Americans saying that they have become more concerned about climate change specifically because of the election result.
- There is a wide range of climate attitudes within the Trump coalition. Post-election polls have shown that Trump won in spite of voters’ lack of trust in him to handle climate change, as voters said that they trusted Harris over Trump by a wide margin to handle the issue. Additionally, while Trump won overwhelmingly among the segment of voters who deny the problem, he also won a significant chunk of voters who are concerned about climate change. As a result, there are a lot of conflicting climate views within his coalition and it would be a mistake to assume that Trump voters share his dismissiveness about climate change. ecoAmerica, in fact, finds that the majority of Trump voters are at least “somewhat” concerned about climate change and that Trump voters are just as likely to say that they’re “very” concerned about climate change as to say that they aren’t at all concerned about it.
Good Data Points to Highlight
- [Climate Change] 72% of Americans say that they’re at least “somewhat” concerned about climate change, an increase of five points since June [ecoAmerica]
- [Climate Change] 45% of Americans say that the result of the election made them more concerned about climate change, while just 5% say that it made them less concerned [ecoAmerica]
- [Clean Energy] By a 55%-45% margin, voters side more with an argument in favor of prioritizing clean energy over an argument in favor of prioritizing oil and gas [Navigator]
Full Roundup
ecoAmerica – Americans have grown more concerned about climate change since before the election, with many saying that Trump’s victory deepened their concerns [Release, Report, Topline]
Americans have grown more concerned about climate change since before the election. ecoAmerica surveyed adults nationwide in June and then again in the days after the election (November 7-9). Between the two surveys, the share of Americans who are at least “somewhat” concerned about climate change grew by five points (72%, up from 67%).
Additionally, the percentage who are “very” concerned about climate change has increased by six points (40%, up from 34%).
As climate change and environmental issues have grown more polarized in the last two decades, we’ve tended to see rises in concern about climate and the environment in response to Republican electoral victories and decreases in concern in response to Democratic electoral victories. While we’ll need more data to draw any firm conclusions about how environmental attitudes are shifting in response to Trump’s recent victory, these early data points are consistent with the kind of heightened concern we would expect under a Republican administration.
Increases in climate concern have mostly come among independents and Republicans, while Democrats’ concerns have also intensified. Overall climate concern among independents has increased by nine points since June (69% at least “somewhat” concerned, up from 60%), and concern among Republicans has increased by four points (56% at least “somewhat” concerned, up from 52%).
Additionally, while a steady 88% of Democrats reported being at least “somewhat” concerned about climate change in ecoAmerica’s June and November surveys, concerns among Democrats have intensified. Nearly three-fifths of Democrats (59%) now say that they are “very” concerned about the issue, an increase of nine points since June (50%).
Many Americans tie their increased climate concerns directly to the election. Around half of Americans (45%) say that the election results increased their concerns about climate change, while hardly any (5%) say that the election results made them less concerned about the issue.
The large majority of Democrats (68%) say that they have become more concerned about climate change as a result of the election, including more than two in five (43%) who say that their climate concern has increased “a lot” as a result of the election.
Meanwhile, two in five independents (40%) and about one-quarter of Republicans (24%) also say that the election results made them more concerned about climate change.
Most Trump voters are concerned about climate change. The data that we have so far about Trump’s winning coalition indicates that they have diverse views on climate change, and generally don’t share Trump’s dismissiveness about the problem. The Fox News Voter Analysis, for example, found that Trump won overwhelmingly among voters who aren’t concerned about climate change but also won 44% of voters who are “somewhat” concerned about the problem.
Here, ecoAmerica finds that the majority of Trump voters (55%) express at least “some” concern about climate change. Trump voters are also just as likely to say that they’re “very” concerned about climate change (23%) as to say that they aren’t “at all” concerned (22%) about it.
Navigator – Voters, including swing voters, side more with clean energy advocates in the debate over the country’s energy future [Release, Deck]
Voters who participated in the election side more with arguments in favor of clean energy than arguments in favor of fossil fuel production. Surveying 5,000 voters from October 31 – November 9 who either had already voted or planned to vote in the election, Navigator found that most prioritize clean energy over fossil fuel production.
By a 55%-45% margin, voters are more likely to side with a pro-clean energy argument (“we should be investing in more affordable, cleaner energy production in order to create clean energy jobs here at home, bring down energy costs, and reduce our reliance on big oil companies”) than a pro-fossil fuel argument (“we should be focused on making the U.S. the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world, instead of supporting extreme ideas like banning fracking and banning gas vehicles”).
Voters who were persuadable in the election were even more likely to favor clean energy over fossil fuels. Swing voters (defined as those who did not rule out voting for either Harris or Trump from the start of the candidates’ campaigns) side more with the argument in favor of clean energy by a 14-point margin, which is even wider than the 10-point margin that Navigator found among the overall electorate.
Navigator’s findings are very consistent with other post-election polls such as the Fox News Voter Analysis, which found that voters were 12 points more likely to agree that the country should focus on expanding the use of clean energy such as wind and solar (55%) than to agree that the country should focus on expanding the production of fossil fuels such as oil and gas (43%).
Related Resources
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 6th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 23rd, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.
Environmental Polling Roundup – August 27th, 2021
This post includes a roundup of climate + environment headlines from this week’s public polls, good data points to highlight, and a full roundup including key takeaways from each poll.