Environmental Polling Roundup – August 30, 2024
HEADLINES
Climate Power – Persuadable voters are moved by cost-focused energy messaging in the presidential race, including that VP Harris is expanding clean energy to lower costs for consumers while Trump is looking after Big Oil CEOs’ profits [Deck]
Data for Progress – Climate change and the environment rank among Harris’s biggest issue advantages with swing voters [Article, Topline]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
VP Harris has a persuasive case that her energy policies benefit consumers more than Trump’s. Out of a variety of contrast messaging frames tested by Climate Power about the presidential race, the following message stood out as a persuasive reason to support Harris over Trump among key audiences including “soft” Harris supporters and independents: “Kamala Harris knows prices are too high, and many Americans are struggling with the cost of living. That’s why she cast the tie-breaking vote for a plan to triple clean energy production and save Americans $38 billion on electricity bills. She will take on Big Oil for price gouging. Trump sides with Big Oil billionaires over working people. His policies increase profits for Big Oil CEOs, leaving Americans vulnerable to more price hikes at the pump.”
Climate/environment is one of Harris’s biggest issue strengths with swing voters, even though many still don’t know which candidate to trust on the issue. Data for Progress finds that swing voters are more likely to trust Harris over Trump on climate change and the environment than on any other issue area besides abortion, LGBTQ+ issues, and race relations. At the same time, climate/environment is one of the issues where swing voters are most undecided about who to trust – indicating a lot of opportunity for the Harris campaign to bolster her standing with swing voters by educating them about her climate and environmental accomplishments.
FULL ROUNDUP
Climate Power – Persuadable voters are moved by cost-focused energy messaging in the presidential race, including that VP Harris is expanding clean energy to lower costs for consumers while Trump is looking after Big Oil CEOs’ profits [Deck]
In this recent survey of voters in battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI), Climate Power assessed the impact of climate- and energy-focused messaging in the presidential race.
Out of a variety of messages that were tested in the survey, they recommend that Harris supporters hone in on the following message to draw a compelling contrast between Harris and Trump on these issues:
“Kamala Harris knows prices are too high, and many Americans are struggling with the cost of living. That’s why she cast the tie-breaking vote for a plan to triple clean energy production and save Americans $38 billion on electricity bills. She will take on Big Oil for price gouging. Trump sides with Big Oil billionaires over working people. His policies increase profits for Big Oil CEOs, leaving Americans vulnerable to more price hikes at the pump.”
Pulling from the deck’s “Key Takeaways”:
“This is a competitive and winnable race. Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the trial heat, yet Harris leads on favorability and has significant potential to increase her vote share, particularly among voters of color and younger voters.
Climate and clean energy are strengths for Vice President Harris. Harris has strong initial advantages on these issues over Trump and climate change is especially important for consolidating soft supporters.
A contrast on energy costs is an advantage for Harris and shows that she is tackling voters’ key concern: the cost of living. Her record on affordable energy and taking on Big Oil, versus Trump’s alliance with oil CEOs is the strongest contrast for persuasion and mobilization audiences.
Emphasizing clean energy and going on offense against Big Oil is a winning strategy. Vice President Harris’ record delivering policies to make energy more affordable and taking on Big Oil contrasts with Trump’s alliance with oil and gas CEOs.
Use climate and clean energy to bolster Vice President Harris’s case as an advocate for freedom. These freedoms are on par with values like reproductive freedom and gun safety and resonate with soft Harris supporters:
-The freedom for every child to be safe from the pollution that dirties our air and water and fuels the climate crisis
-The freedom to have clean air, clean water, and a healthy climate
If Vice President Harris is attacked on fracking, messages centered on freedom and her support for commonsense safeguards effectively rebut these criticisms. These are the best-testing responses and significantly more convincing to voters than a response presenting Vice President Harris as having an all-of-the above energy strategy:
[FREEDOM] Kamala Harris is running for president to protect Americans’ freedoms. Harris believes Americans should be free from the grip of Big Oil. She continues to invest in cheaper, cleaner energy manufacturing to give the American people a real choice. Trump just wants to block clean energy, which will keep us dependent on Big Oil.
[COMMONSENSE SAFEGUARDS] Kamala Harris supports commonsense protections and safeguards to keep our air, water, and health safe. Fracking can cause water contamination and air pollution, which can cause cancer, birth defects, and other diseases, according to doctors and scientists. Harris believes in setting limits to reduce these risks while moving toward cleaner energy sources and creating a new generation of renewable energy jobs, which she has worked to do through the passage of historic legislation.”
Data for Progress – Climate change and the environment rank among Harris’s biggest issue advantages with swing voters [Article, Topline]
Based on more than 6,000 interviews with voters nationwide, Data for Progress estimates that 8% of likely voters are true “swing voters” in the 2024 presidential election.
Profiling this segment of the electorate, they find that swing voters skew younger, more racially diverse, and more female than the rest of the electorate. And in terms of issues, they find that swing voters feel cross-pressured in the race for president as they tend to trust Trump more on immigration and economic issues while trusting Harris more on abortion, LGBTQ+ issues, race relations, and climate change and the environment.
In fact, Harris’s advantage on climate change and the environment is one of the biggest issue advantages that she has with swing voters. Below are the margins by which swing voters say that they trust one candidate over the other on each of the issues that were asked about in the poll:
-LGBTQ+ issues: Harris +35
-Abortion: Harris +32
-Race relations and racism: Harris +28
-Climate change and the environment: Harris +27
-Health care: Harris +18
-Programs like Social Security and Medicare: Harris +11
-Gun policy: Trump +4
-Threats to democracy: Trump +6
-Crime and public safety: Trump +18
-Handling the Israel-Palestine conflict: Trump +19
-National security and foreign policy: Trump +24
-Jobs and the economy: Trump +27
-Inflation: Trump +31
-Immigration: Trump +36
Interestingly, despite being one of the strongest issue areas for Harris, Data for Progress also finds that climate change and the environment is one of the issue areas where swing voters are most undecided about who to trust. Nearly four in ten swing voters (37%) say that they don’t know whether to trust Harris or Trump more on the topic, more than for any other issue area tested in the survey besides the Israel-Palestine conflict (40%).
Swing voters are far less politically engaged than the rest of the electorate, and these findings suggest that Harris has significant room to boost her standing with swing voters by educating them about the Biden-Harris administration’s climate accomplishments.
Related Resources
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