Environmental Polling Roundup – August 19th, 2022
HEADLINES
- Climate Power + LCV – The most persuasive climate-related proof points in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act include that it will create new clean energy jobs, reduce pollution that causes climate change and health problems, reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, and cut consumers’ energy bills (Memo, Topline)
- Navigator – Voters support the Inflation Reduction Act by a greater than two-to-one margin after learning basic information about what it includes; climate change has steadily risen as a priority for voters since the plan was announced (Release, Report)
- POLITICO + Morning Consult – Majorities of voters support each of the Inflation Reduction Act’s major climate-related provisions (Topline, Crosstabs)
- The Economist + YouGov – Support for the Inflation Reduction Act is steady when it’s described as a “$369 billion climate and energy bill” (Topline, Crosstabs)
- AP + NORC – Americans are split on whether their personal actions can have an effect on climate change (Article, Topline)
- Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) – Concerns about climate change lag in some of the Midwest and Southwest counties most impacted by extreme heat (Article)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The Inflation Reduction Act remains popular, especially when people hear about its major provisions. Polling by Navigator finds that voters support the bill by an overwhelming, 65%-26% margin when they are provided with a simple, one-sentence explanation of it: “As you may know, Biden and Democrats’ new legislation that has been passed by Congress is called the Inflation Reduction Act, which will give Medicare the power to negotiate lower drug prices, bring down health insurance premiums, and invest in clean energy like wind and solar power.”
- Clean energy jobs, combating climate pollution, U.S. energy independence, public health benefits, and savings on energy bills are all compelling proof points in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act. Climate Power and LCV find that statements related to job creation, the public health benefits of cleaner air, reducing the pollution that causes climate change, greater U.S. energy independence, and projected savings on household energy bills rank among the most compelling climate-related proof points about the Inflation Reduction Act. At least three-quarters of voters rank each of these proof points as “important” benefits of the bill, and at least half call each “very important.”
- Americans want further climate action after the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage. While it’s not uncommon for the public to de-prioritize the issues that they believe are taking up the most attention in Washington, if anything we are seeing the opposite effect on climate change since the agreement on the Inflation Reduction Act was announced. Polls by Navigator and POLITICO/Morning Consult find that climate change has been rising as a priority for voters in recent weeks, with steadily larger shares saying that they want it to be one of the top issue priorities in Washington.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [IRA] Voters support the Inflation Reduction Act by a 65%-26% margin after reading a one-sentence description of the bill [Navigator]
- [IRA] 81% of voters say that it’s important to them that the Inflation Reduction Act will “create 1.5 million good-paying jobs in communities across the country in construction, manufacturing, clean energy production, and other industries,” including 53% who say this is “very” important to them [Climate Power + LCV]
- [IRA] 78% of voters say that it’s important to them that the Inflation Reduction Act will “prevent up to 3,900 premature deaths and up to 100,000 asthma attacks in the next eight years by reducing carbon pollution and making air cleaner,” including 52% who say this is “very” important to them [Climate Power + LCV]
- [IRA] 76% of voters say that it’s important to them that the Inflation Reduction Act will “reduce the United States’ dependence on foreign oil by increasing the use of American-made clean energy sources like solar and wind power,” including 52% who say this is “very” important to them [Climate Power + LCV]
- [IRA] 76% of voters say that it’s important to them that the Inflation Reduction Act will “reduce the toxic pollution that causes climate change by 40% by the year 2030,” including 52% who say this is “very” important to them [Climate Power + LCV]
- [IRA] 66% of voters support the Inflation Reduction Act’s provision to offer tax credits to consumers who put certain renewable energy items in their households [POLITICO + Morning Consult]
- [IRA] 59% of voters support the Inflation Reduction Act’s provision of $60 billion in incentives for clean energy manufacturing in the U.S. [POLITICO + Morning Consult]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans say that climate change / the environment is the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue besides inflation / prices, health care, and jobs / the economy [Economist/YouGov]
FULL ROUNDUP
Climate Power + LCV
The most persuasive climate-related proof points in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act include that it will create new clean energy jobs, reduce pollution that causes climate change and health problems, reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, and cut consumers’ energy bills (Memo, Topline)
This new poll includes the most in-depth look at potential messaging frames and proof points that we’ve seen on the Inflation Reduction Act, so it’s well worth studying for any advocate or organization that is looking to tout the benefits of the bill to the public.
The poll finds that half or more of voters rate several of the bill’s climate-related components as “very important” to them personally, including provisions related to creating jobs, combating climate pollution, and making the U.S. more energy independent.
Interestingly, the bill’s climate benefits test as even more important to voters than the potential energy cost savings that the bill will create – largely due to the high importance that Democratic voters place on cutting climate pollution.
Pulling from the memo linked above:
“Addressing climate change is as important—and likely more important—an element of the legislation as consumer cost savings. The fact that the bill “reduces carbon pollution by 40% by 2030 and ramps up the use of clean energy sources in order to address climate change” is deemed very important by 50% of people; 39% say the same of the fact that it “lowers the cost for consumers to buy solar panels, energy-efficient home appliances, electric vehicles, and other products that use less energy and reduce pollution.” The discrepancy is due largely to Democrats, women, and seniors placing greater weight on the climate/clean energy element.
That said, the economic benefits—both in jobs and energy savings—are among the central selling points of the climate aspects of the legislation, along with climate pollution reduction and energy independence. When people assess the discrete climate and energy components, those that rise to the top are:
- It will create 1.5 million good-paying jobs in communities across the country in construction, manufacturing, clean energy production, and other industries – 53% very important; 43% choose as one of the most important
- It will reduce the (toxic/carbon) pollution that causes climate change by 40% by the year 2030 – 51% very important; 41% choose as one of the most important (Whether the pollution was labeled “toxic” or “carbon” had no real impact on the results.)
- It will reduce the United States’ dependence on foreign oil by increasing the use of American-made energy sources like solar and wind power – 52% very important; 39% choose as one of the most important
- It will save the typical household $1,800 per year in energy costs by helping people use more affordable clean energy – 48% very important; 37% choose as one of the most important
Public health provides another significant talking point for the IRA, especially with key constituencies. The fact that “it will prevent up to 3,900 premature deaths and up to 100,000 asthma attacks in the next eight years by reducing carbon pollution and making air cleaner” is a strong message for people under age 35 and is the top-scoring message for Black adults.”
The poll additionally finds that U.S. energy independence now rivals the protection of future generations as a rationale to deal with climate change in general. Pulling again from the memo:
“Energy independence and future generations remain important proof points for the need to deal with the threat of climate change more broadly. These two themes rise to the top among reasons to deal with climate change generally speaking (i.e., not just in the context of the IRA):
- It will protect the planet for future generations – 36% one of the most important reasons
- It will make the United States energy independent and less reliant on oil from countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia – 35% one of the most important reasons
Independents and swing voters place these two points substantially above the other climate messaging points in this question. The future generations message also stands out for those under age 35—40% choose it as a top reason in favor of climate action (the next highest being energy independence, at 29%). It is clearly a talking point that generates a lot of agreement, but we strongly recommend always pairing it with a “hard benefit” message (e.g., cost savings, specific health impacts, job growth) in order to maximize the effectiveness of communications.”
Navigator
Voters support the Inflation Reduction Act by a greater than two-to-one margin after learning basic information about what it includes; climate change has steadily risen as a priority for voters since the plan was announced (Release, Report)
Navigator finds very broad support for the Inflation Reduction Act in their first poll since its passage, with a 39-point margin in favor (65% support / 26% oppose) after respondents read the simple description below:
“As you may know, Biden and Democrats’ new legislation that has been passed by Congress is called the Inflation Reduction Act, which will give Medicare the power to negotiate lower drug prices, bring down health insurance premiums, and invest in clean energy like wind and solar power. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this new economic plan?”
This widespread backing for the plan includes a nearly three-to-one margin of support among independent voters (64% support / 23% oppose). Additionally, the poll finds that there is overwhelming support for the Inflation Reduction Act from communities of color – including a 79-point margin of support among Black voters (86% support / 7% oppose), a 54-point margin of support among AAPI voters (74% support / 20% oppose), and a 50-point margin of support among Hispanic voters (70% support / 20% oppose).
The poll also finds that, while health-care related provisions continue to be the most widely supported components of the Inflation Reduction Act, the bill’s projected energy cost savings for consumers rival any other component of the bill in their perceived positive impact for individuals and their communities.
When asked to rate how positive or negative of an impact different projected outcomes of the bill will have “on you and your community,” just over three-quarters of voters (76%) say that “bringing down energy costs for American families by an average of $1,800 a year” will have a positive impact, including 51% who believe it will have a “very positive impact.”
This response to the bill’s projected impact on energy bills makes energy cost savings one of the most salient benefits of the plan, on par with bringing down the prices of prescription drugs (77% positive, 51% “very positive”), bringing down health care costs for American families by an average of $1,000 a year (76% positive, 50% “very positive”), and lowering health insurance premiums (75% positive, 49% “very positive”).
The Navigator report also highlights that climate change has been rising as a priority for voters since the agreement on climate legislation was announced last month. Navigator finds that 31% of voters now rate “climate change and the environment” as a top-four priority for President Biden and Congress to focus on, ranking it only behind inflation (61%) and jobs and the economy (45%).
Additionally, the percentage saying that climate and the environment should be a top-three priority has risen steadily in recent weeks, from 22% in mid-July to 28% in early August and 31% in this latest survey.
The increase in voters’ prioritization of climate change is reinforced in other public polling; POLITICO and Morning Consult, for example, found that 39% of voters rated passing a climate bill as a “top priority” for Congress last week – up slightly from 37% in late July and 34% in late June.
POLITICO + Morning Consult
Majorities of voters support each of the Inflation Reduction Act’s major climate-related provisions (Topline, Crosstabs)
POLITICO and Morning Consult found in late July that all of the Inflation Reduction Act’s major provisions had more support than opposition, and their latest poll finds that the bill’s major components remain popular.
Majorities of voters continue to support every climate-related component of the bill, with especially high support for consumer clean energy tax credits and clean energy manufacturing incentives. Here are the climate-related provisions that the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll tested, ranked by the percentage of voters who support each one:
- Offering tax credits to consumers who put certain renewable energy items in their households, such as rooftop solar and electric water heaters (66% support / 22% oppose)
- Providing $60 billion in incentives for clean energy manufacturing in the U.S., such as tax credits to speed up production of solar panels and wind turbines and to build clean technology manufacturing plants (59% support / 28% oppose)
- Charging a fee to the oil and gas industry for excessive methane emissions (54% support / 31% oppose)
- Investing about $369 billion in climate and energy programs over the next 10 years (54% support / 33% oppose)
- Offering $4,000 in tax credits for lower- and middle-income individuals to use to buy a used electric vehicle, and $7,500 to buy a new electric vehicle (53% support / 34% oppose)
As for the provisions that aren’t directly related to climate or energy, the poll finds that provisions related to health care and prescription drugs continue to rank among the most popular overall – including placing caps on prescription drug price increases (76% support / 13% oppose), allowing Medicare to negotiate some prescription drug prices (73% support / 13% oppose), and limiting annual out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries to $2,000 (72% support / 15% oppose).
Additionally, the poll finds overwhelming support for the bill’s projected reduction of the federal budget deficit by $300 billion (73% support / 11% oppose).
The Economist + YouGov
Support for the Inflation Reduction Act is steady when it’s described as a “$369 billion climate and energy bill” (Topline, Crosstabs)
The latest Economist/YouGov poll provides further evidence that Americans have consistently positive attitudes about the Inflation Reduction Act and the climate goals it seeks to achieve.
Using a description of the bill that calls it a “$369 billion climate and energy bill, which includes cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, gives government the ability to negotiate lower drug prices, and requires a minimum 15% tax on large corporations,” the poll finds that Americans support it by a margin of 22 points (53% support / 31% oppose).
This represents essentially no change in Americans’ attitudes toward the bill from Economist/YouGov polls conducted last week (52% support / 31% oppose) and the week before (51% support / 31% oppose), which used identical language to describe the bill.
Additionally, the Economist and YouGov find that there is a very stable margin of support for the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Americans support these proposed cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by a 26-point margin this week (54% support / 28% oppose), which is nearly identical to what The Economist and YouGov found on the same question last week (53% support / 29% oppose).
AP + NORC
Americans are split on whether their personal actions can have an effect on climate change (Article, Topline)
This poll is the latest in a long-term series of national tracking polls by the AP and UChicago’s NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and it provides some mixed results about the trends in Americans’ climate attitudes.
The poll finds that the share of Americans who believe climate change is happening has fluctuated a bit in recent years (71% now, down slightly from 76% in their 2019 poll). However, among those who acknowledge that climate change is happening, there is increasingly high recognition that humans are causing it. In the AP and NORC’s polling, within the segment of Americans who recognize that climate change is happening, 66% say it is caused either “entirely” or “mostly” by human activities – an increase of 11 points since 2017 (55%).
The poll also finds a fairly sizable drop in Americans’ perceived self-efficacy to combat climate change. Americans are only five points more likely to agree than disagree that their personal actions “have an effect on climate change” (52% yes / 47% no), whereas they were twice as likely to agree than disagree that their actions could have an effect on climate change the last time the AP and NORC asked this question in 2019 (66% yes / 33% no).
We haven’t seen other polling to suggest that Americans’ confidence in their individual ability to combat climate change is dropping to such a degree, so we definitely encourage more fresh research on Americans’ self-efficacy around climate change to confirm if these attitudes are indeed shifting and why.
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC)
Concerns about climate change lag in some of the Midwest and Southwest counties most impacted by extreme heat (Article)
In this novel analysis, the YPCCC combined county-level estimates from their polling data on Americans’ concerns about global warming with county-level weather data from FEMA to observe how extreme heat correlates with global warming concerns.
Their analysis confirms that extreme heat is generally associated with elevated concern about global warming. However, certain geographic areas buck this trend and the data indicates that more education is needed in the Midwest and Southwest specifically to drive home the link between climate change and extreme heat.
Pulling from the article, with emphasis added in bold:
“When calculating a population-weighted correlation coefficient, we observe a positive correlation (r = 0.12) between past exposure to extreme heat and worry about global warming across the 2,293 counties in the FEMA dataset. This relationship suggests that living in areas that experience more days of extreme heat is associated with higher levels of worry about global warming.
…
Despite the overall positive correlation between past exposure to extreme heat and worry about global warming, geography appears to be an important factor affecting this relationship.
…
The 217 counties that fall into the “Higher Exposure, Lower Worry” quadrant of the scatter plot [plotting extreme heat exposure on one axis and global warming concern on the other axis] represent about 6.4M people (2.6% of U.S. population). Analysis of the socioeconomic characteristics of these counties show that they have a median household income of around $57K per year, which is about 9% below the overall median household income in the United States ($62K)…
However, residents of the 217 counties in the “Higher Exposure, Lower Worry” quadrant are much more likely to identify as white, to have voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election, and to live in a rural county compared to the U.S. population overall. These counties are almost exclusively located in the Midwest or the South and are also generally smaller in population than most other counties included in this analysis.”
Related Resources
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