Environmental Polling Roundup - April 21, 2023

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Environmental Polling Roundup – April 21, 2023

David Gold

April 21st, 2023

HEADLINES

Gallup – Steady majorities of Americans say that global warming’s effects are here and human-caused, but concerns over environmental problems have been trending down since their spike under Trump (Global Warming Article, Environmental Problems Article)

Pew – The majority of Americans say that climate change is affecting their local community; most want the government to encourage clean energy but not fossil fuels (Article, Topline)

CBS News + YouGov – Most Americans say that climate change needs to be addressed “right now” (Article, Topline + Crosstabs)

Ipsos [International] – Across 29 countries, citizens overwhelmingly agree that their governments should do more to address climate change; however, prioritization of climate change has slipped compared to past years (Website, Press Release, Full Report)

Monmouth University – Democratic voters are more aligned on climate change than on any other major issue, as nearly two-thirds say that you can’t be a “good Democrat” if you deny climate change (Article, Full Report)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Clean water continues to be the public’s number one environmental priority. Gallup finds that Americans are considerably more worried about the pollution of drinking water and water sources than they are about other environmental problems such as air pollution and climate change, which is consistent with years of polling from Gallup and other leading polling organizations.
Clean energy remains a clear winning issue. Pew finds that Americans are nearly twice as likely to say that the federal government should encourage the production of wind and solar power (66%) as they are to say that the government should encourage oil and gas drilling (34%). Amid unprecedented levels of polarization on climate and energy issues, the consensus in favor of clean energy remains durable.
Americans’ environmental attitudes are connected to their views of the president – and we accordingly need to do more to mobilize Democratic voters when Democrats hold the White House. Researchers have long recognized that partisans change their stated views in response to which party holds the White House; for example, voters rate the country’s economy better when the president shares their party affiliation. We are now seeing a similar kind of effect around climate and energy issues, with Gallup finding that Democrats have grown relatively less concerned about climate change and other environmental problems under Biden than they were under Trump. This tendency toward complacency means that we need to intensify our efforts to mobilize the public during windows of opportunity for federal action on climate and environmental issues.

GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT

[Climate Action] 67% of Americans agree that large businesses and corporations are doing too little to help reduce the effects of global climate change [Pew]
[Clean Energy] 66% of Americans say that the federal government should encourage the production of wind and solar power [Pew]
[Climate Causes] By a 62%-36% margin, Americans say that increases in Earth’s temperature over the last century are more due to the effects of pollution from human activities than to natural changes in the environment [Gallup]
[Climate Impacts] 61% of Americans agree that climate change is having at least “some” impact on their local community [Pew]
[Climate Action] 58% of Americans agree that their state elected officials are doing too little to help reduce the effects of global climate change [Pew]
[Climate Action] 53% of Americans say that climate change needs to be addressed “right now” [CBS News + YouGov]
[Issue Priority] More Americans say that climate/environment is the number one “most important issue” for them than any other issue besides inflation/prices, health care, and the economy/jobs [The Economist + YouGov]

FULL ROUNDUP

Gallup finds that a majority of Americans (60%) recognize that the effects of global warming have already begun, which is consistent with the past several years of Gallup polling on the topic.

Additionally, by a 62%-36% margin, Americans say that increases in Earth’s temperature over the last century are due more to the effects of pollution from human activities than to natural changes in the environment.

And while roughly two in five (39%) say that they worry about global warming or climate change “a great deal,” the public’s concern about global warming has become slightly less acute in the last few years. The primary reason for this trend appears to be an easing of Democrats’ climate concerns since their party won the White House in 2020. Gallup’s article on the global warming data provides some important context:

“Public concern and certainty about global warming was generally less pronounced at the start of this century, from 2001 to 2015, than it is today, before increasing in 2016 and 2017. That intensity burst coincided with a number of environmental and political events that could have played a role in the change. Among these were unusually warm winters in 2016 and 2017 and the emergence of Donald Trump as a political figure. The latter may have caused some, particularly Democrats, to fear global warming policies might suffer under his administration.

Since 2017, U.S. concern about global warming may have remained elevated due to reports of there being more extreme weather events as well as the continued global focus on climate change, including by environmental activist Greta Thunberg, who spoke at the United Nations in 2018.

This year’s slight dip in the percentage of Americans worried a great deal about global warming coincides with larger declines in worry about several other environmental problems such as air and water pollution. The downshift is due to diminished worry among Democrats, likely reflecting increased confidence in environmental protection at the start of President Joe Biden’s third year in office after he has made progress on his environmental agenda.

Indeed, Democrats’ worry about global warming jumped from 57% in 2016 to 66% in 2017, after Trump took office, and peaked at 78% in 2020. It reverted to 68% at the start of Biden’s presidency and is now 65%. Independents’ level of worry has followed a similar path over this period, while Republicans have grown less worried.”

Similarly, while many Americans say that they worry “a great deal” about other environmental problems – especially water pollution – concerns about all kinds of environmental issues have been trending downward during Biden’s presidency.

Here are the percentages that say they worry “a great deal” about various environmental issues in Gallup’s polling this month, along with the percent change since last year:

Pollution of drinking water – 55% (-2 from 2022)
Pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs – 50% (-4)
Extinction of plant and animal species – 40% (-5)
The loss of tropical rain forests – 39% (-7)
Global warming or climate change – 39% (-4)
Air pollution – 38% (-7)

Gallup explains how Democrats are driving these shifts in the article on these findings (emphasis added in bold):

“Gallup has tracked worry about each of these problems annually since 2000, except for 2005, with concern about water pollution consistently ranking at the top of the list of environmental issues. The latest findings, from a March 1-23 poll, show modest declines in worry since last year for most of the problems.

…

Each of the current readings is at or tied for its lowest point since 2015 or 2016.

The dips in worry about the six environmental issues over the past year are due almost entirely to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, whose level of worry has eased as President Joe Biden has taken significant actions on the environment. This includes passage of the Inflation Reduction Act last August, which included the largest federal investments in actions to address climate change.

Whereas majorities of Democrats expressed a great deal of worry about each problem in 2022, they express less concern on each this year, with readings below 50% for three — air pollution, the loss of tropical rain forests, and the extinction of plant and animal species. Top-level concerns about these three problems have not been below 50% among Democrats and leaners since Barack Obama’s presidency…

At the same time, Republicans’ and Republican-leaning independents’ degrees of worry about the six environmental problems have been largely stable in the past few years.”

Pew – The majority of Americans say that climate change is affecting their local community; most want the government to encourage clean energy but not fossil fuels (Article, Topline)

Drawing from multiple surveys conducted in the past year, including a new survey fielded last month, Pew has pulled out eight key findings about Americans’ views on climate change and the environment:

A majority of Americans support the U.S. becoming carbon neutral by 2050
Americans are reluctant to phase out fossil fuels altogether, but younger adults are more open to it
The public supports the federal government incentivizing wind and solar energy production
Americans see room for multiple actors – including corporations and the federal government – to do more to address the impacts of climate change
Democrats and Republicans have grown further apart over the last decade in their assessments of the threat posed by climate change
Climate change is a lower priority for Americans than other national issues
Perceptions of local climate impacts vary by Americans’ political affiliation and whether they believe that climate change is a serious problem
Three-quarters of Americans support U.S. participation in international efforts to reduce the effects of climate change

The freshest data here, from last month’s survey, relates to energy sources, local climate impacts, and the actors that people hold most responsible for addressing climate change.

On energy sources, Pew finds that nearly two-thirds (66%) say that the federal government should encourage the production of wind and solar power. Meanwhile, only about half as many (34%) say that the government should encourage oil and gas drilling. This is a common finding in environmental polling, as clean energy sources are consistently far more popular than fossil fuels.

Pew finds that Americans are also much more likely to say that the government should encourage than discourage the use of electric vehicles (43% encourage / 14% discourage) and nuclear power (41% encourage / 22% discourage), while few want to see the government encourage coal mining (21% encourage / 39% discourage).

Of all the energy sources tested in the survey, attitudes about nuclear energy have shifted the most since last year. Americans are now 19 points more likely to say that the government should encourage (41%) than discourage (22%) nuclear, up from a margin of nine points in January 2022 (35% encourage / 26% discourage).

In terms of local climate impacts, Pew finds that partisanship and geography both shape how Americans view the impacts of climate change in their area. Democrats (84%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (36%) to say that their area has been affected at least “some” by climate change. Additionally, those in the Pacific region (AK, CA, HI, OR, and WA) are 11 points more likely (70%) than those in other regions (59%) to say that their local area has been impacted.

Pew’s recent polling also finds that Americans widely agree that large businesses and corporations need to step up their efforts to help reduce climate change. Two-thirds (67%) say that large businesses and corporations are doing “too little” to help reduce the effects of climate change, more than any other group tested in the survey:

Large businesses and corporations – 67% doing “too little” on climate change
Your state elected officials – 58%
Ordinary Americans – 57%
The energy industry – 55%
Your local community – 48%
You, yourself, as an individual – 43%
Environmental advocacy organizations – 31%

CBS News + YouGov – Most Americans say that climate change needs to be addressed “right now” (Article, Topline + Crosstabs)

CBS News and YouGov find a high degree of public urgency around climate change. When asked about the timeframe for addressing the problem, most Americans (53%) say that climate change should be addressed “right now.” About one-quarter (24%) say that the problem doesn’t need to be addressed, and small percentages say that it can be addressed in “the next few years” (14%) or “further in the future” (9%).

Among those who say that the problem doesn’t need to be addressed either “right now” or in the next few years, the most commonly cited rationales are that “there are more pressing issues right now” (79%), that “the effect of climate change is exaggerated” (74%), and that “there’s nothing we can do about climate change” (56%).

This group of Americans that is comfortable delaying or avoiding action on the problem skews heavily Republican. The majority of self-identified Republicans (55%) say that climate change can either be addressed further in the future or not at all, compared to 36% of independents and only 8% of Democrats.

The perceived impact of climate action on the economy is another major point of partisan disagreement.

Democrats overwhelmingly say that climate action will have a positive economic impact (64% help the economy / 15% hurt the economy), while independents are divided (38% help / 35% hurt) and Republicans are about twice as likely to say that climate action will hurt the economy than help it (23% help / 45% hurt).

Overall, Americans are 10 points more likely to say that efforts to reduce climate change will help the economy (41%) than hurt the economy (31%).

In a survey of more than 21,000 adults across 29 countries, Ipsos finds widespread agreement that governments need to do more to combat climate change: on average, citizens are six times more likely to agree (66%) than disagree (11%) that their country “should do more in the fight against climate change.”

However, when comparing results among the 26 countries that Ipsos surveyed in 2022 and again this year, agreement has slipped on some key questions about the need to act now to combat climate change:

62% agree that “we will be failing future generations” if “individuals like me do not act now to combat climate change” (down eight points from 2022)
61% agree that “it will be failing the people of the country” if “my country’s government does not act now to combat climate change” (down eight points from 2022)
58% agree that “they will be failing their employees and customers” if “businesses in my country do not act now to combat climate change” (down 10 points from 2022)

As is generally the case in international surveys, Ipsos finds that the United States lags behind other major economies in its citizens’ climate concern and prioritization. The majority of Americans (57%) say that their government should do more to combat climate change, but this majority is smaller than the international average on this question (66%).

The survey also finds that Americans – along with citizens of other higher-income countries such as Canada, Japan, and Western European nations – are less likely than average to agree that “developed countries” and countries “that have contributed most to the climate emergency” should do more to solve the problem.

These findings show that climate advocates need to do more to convince citizens of highly developed nations that they have a responsibility to lead on climate action.

Americans, for example, lag behind the international average in their agreement on the following points:

We can’t fully tackle climate change unless all countries work together (66% agree in the U.S., compared to an international average of 75%)
Developed countries should do more to combat climate change (58% agree in the U.S., compared to an international average of 70%)
It is right that developed countries (such as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France) who have contributed most to the climate emergency, by producing the most carbon emissions, should pay more to solve the problem (46% agree in the U.S., compared to an international average of 62%)

Monmouth University – Democratic voters are more aligned on climate change than on any other major issue, as nearly two-thirds say that you can’t be a “good Democrat” if you deny climate change (Article, Full Report)

This new polling from Monmouth provides further evidence that climate change is now one of the core issues unifying Democratic voters.

Nearly two-thirds of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (65%) say that someone can’t be a “good Democrat” if they “do not believe that climate change is a major problem.”

Climate skepticism is the single most disqualifying position in the survey, with Democratic-leaning voters even more likely to agree that someone who denies the seriousness of climate change can’t be a “good Democrat” than someone who opposes legalized abortion (58%) or opposes Black Lives Matter (58%).

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