Environmental Polling Roundup – April 14, 2023
HEADLINES
AP + NORC/EPIC – Roughly three in four Americans recognize that climate change is happening, and most believe it’s accelerating; extreme weather and scientists have the greatest influence on Americans’ climate views (Release, Report, Topline)
Gallup – Americans are more likely to prioritize environmental protection over fossil fuel production this year as energy concerns have subsided since the 2022 crisis; however, partisans are more divided than ever on the trade-offs between the environment and economic growth (Energy Article, Economy Article)
Gallup – Most Americans would consider purchasing an electric vehicle, though there are large differences in interest by partisanship (Article)
[MI] Data for Progress – Voters overwhelmingly support major provisions of the MI Healthy Climate Plan and the transition to a fully clean electricity grid (Article, Topline)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Scientists remain the most trusted messengers on climate change. Gallup finds that Americans are much more likely to say that scientists have influenced their views on climate change than other sources such as political and business leaders. This is consistent with other polling, which has shown that scientists rank among the most trusted authorities on climate change – including among both Democratic and Republican audiences.
- We can’t separate the economic factors behind car choices from the cultural factors. Gallup finds that interest in electric vehicles is more closely linked with people’s political partisanship than any other socioeconomic factor. While concerns over costs and the lack of charging stations continue to rank among the most significant self-reported barriers to EV interest, we need to recognize that practicality and material self-interest are only parts of the equation. Increasing EV interest among conservative audiences will require a more concerted effort to depoliticize EVs and address perceived stigmas.
- Support for fossil fuels has subsided since last year’s energy crisis, but we still need to present an appealing alternative. Gallup finds that Americans are more likely to prioritize environmental protection over fossil fuel production than at this time last year, and a narrow majority support environmental protection over economic growth. However, it’s important for advocates not to accept the false environment/economy binary – which is typically how opponents of environmental protections want it to be framed – and emphasize pro-environment, pro-growth policies like clean energy development instead.
GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT
- [Climate Change] 74% of Americans recognize that climate change is happening [AP + NORC/EPIC]
- [Climate Change] 55% of Americans say that the pace of climate change is getting faster [AP + NORC/EPIC]
- [Clean Energy] By a 59%-35% margin, Americans would prefer that the U.S. emphasize the development of alternative energy such as wind and solar over the production of oil, gas and coal [Gallup]
- [Energy Saving] By a 56%-40% margin, Americans would prefer that the U.S. emphasize conservation of existing energy supplies over the production of oil, gas and coal [Gallup]
- [Issue Priority] More Americans say that climate/environment is the number one “most important issue” for them than any other issue besides inflation/prices, health care, and the economy/jobs [The Economist + YouGov]
- [Michigan] By a 61%-33% margin, Michigan voters support the state moving to a 100% clean energy electricity grid by 2035 [Data for Progress]
FULL ROUNDUP
AP + NORC/EPIC – Roughly three in four Americans recognize that climate change is happening, and most believe it’s accelerating; extreme weather and scientists have the greatest influence on Americans’ climate views (Release, Report, Topline)
The latest poll from the AP and UChicago’s National Opinion Research Center (NORC) and Energy Policy Institute (EPIC) finds that roughly three-quarters of Americans (74%) recognize that climate change is happening, while just 9% deny it (and an additional 16% say they aren’t sure).
Most also believe that the pace of climate change is accelerating (55%), compared to 38% who believe that the pace climate change is staying at the same and just 7% who say that it’s getting slower.
And while most are at least “moderately” concerned about the impact of climate change on them personally (73%), including 42% who are “extremely” or “very” concerned, Americans are relatively more concerned about the impacts of climate change on future generations (62% “extremely” or “very” concerned). Roughly half also say that they’re “extremely” or “very” concerned about the impacts of climate change on coastal communities (50%) and low-income communities (49%).
Scientists and extreme weather stand out as important influences in shaping Americans’ climate views. When asked how much influence different people and groups have had on their climate attitudes, the poll finds that Americans are twice as likely to say that scientists have influenced their climate views either “a great deal” or “a lot” than any other source tested in the poll:
- Scientists – 51% “a great deal” or “a lot” of influence
- Media – 24%
- Democratic political leaders – 22%
- Corporate leaders – 15%
- Republican political leaders – 15%
- Religious leaders – 13%
High trust in scientists as authorities on climate change is a consistent finding in polling. Yale and George Mason found last year that NASA scientists are particularly trusted messengers on the topic, among both Democratic and Republican audiences.
The AP/NORC/EPIC poll additionally finds that extreme weather is powerful in shaping people’s climate attitudes. Roughly half say that extreme weather events have had “a great deal” or “a lot” of influence on their climate views in recent years, more than any other factor tested in the survey:
- Recent extreme weather events like hurricanes, droughts, floods, unusual heat, or wildfires – 49% “a great deal” or “a lot” of influence
- Personal observations of weather in your area – 41%
- Arguments that support the existence of climate change – 35%
- News coverage of climate issues – 32%
- Arguments that question the existence of climate change – 24%
The poll also explored attitudes about electric vehicles, finding that two in five Americans (41%) are at least “somewhat” likely to purchase an EV the next time they purchase a vehicle. This includes about one-fifth (19%) who are “extremely” or “very” likely to choose an electric option.
Top rationales in favor of electric vehicles include saving money on gas (46% say this is a “major reason” they would purchase an EV), reducing your personal impact on climate change (35%), and saving money on vehicle maintenance (31%).
On the negative side, the costs of EVs (60% “major reason” not to purchase an EV), lack of charging stations (50%), battery technology not being ready yet (41%), preference for gas engine vehicles (40%), and long charge times (38%) all rank as major barriers to EV interest.
The poll is also one of the few we’ve seen that gauges support for major investments in new transmission lines to deliver clean energy. When told that the government “has proposed significant investments to build new, high-voltage power lines to carry renewable energy from areas where it is plentiful to areas where demand is high,” most Americans support major investment in new transmission lines (56% support / 12% oppose / 31% neither) and about half say they would support having new transmission lines built in their neighborhood (48% support / 18% oppose / 33% neither).
Gallup – Americans are more likely to prioritize environmental protection over energy production this year as energy concerns have subsided since the 2022 crisis; however, partisans are more divided than ever on the trade-offs between the environment and economic growth (Energy Article, Economy Article)
Gallup finds that Americans are less acutely concerned about the country’s energy situation than they were at this time last year. About one-third say that the country’s energy situation is “very serious” (34%), a ten-point drop since last March (44%).
The easing of energy concerns is a very positive development for environmental advocates, as worries about energy availability during the 2022 crisis prompted a short-term bump in public support for fossil fuel production.
Gallup’s polling last March, for example, found that Americans were closely split on whether the U.S. should prioritize the protection of the environment “even at the risk of limiting the amount of energy supplies” (50%) or prioritizing the production of energy sources like oil, gas, and coal “even if the environment suffers to some extent” (46%).
The public is now back to prioritizing environmental protection by a double-digit margin over fossil fuel production on this question, with 53% saying that environmental protection should take priority and 43% saying that fossil fuel production should take priority. This suggests that the public’s energy attitudes are reverting back to normal, and that increased calls for fossil fuel production last year were more of a temporary blip than a new trend. Aside from tightening amid the energy crisis last year, Gallup had found a consistent 10- to 15-point margin in favor of the environment over fossil fuels on this question going back to 2014.
Gallup’s polling additionally finds that Americans overwhelmingly prefer clean energy development to fossil fuel expansion. By a 24-point margin, Americans say that the country should solve its energy problems by emphasizing “the development of alternative energy such as wind and solar power” (59%) rather than emphasizing “production of more oil, gas and coal supplies” (35%).
Americans also prefer energy conservation to fossil fuel production, though not by the same margin as they prefer clean energy development. When presented with a choice between the country emphasizing “more conservation by consumers of existing energy supplies” (56%) or “production of more oil, gas and coal supplies” (40%), the public supports energy conservation over fossil fuel production by a 16-point margin.
Meanwhile, the framing of economic growth and environmental protection as a false binary is unhelpful to the environmental cause. Americans tend to agree with the idea that “protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth” (52%) over the idea that “economic growth should be given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent” (43%). However, the “pro-environment” choice here is considerably less popular than it is in Gallup’s questions about energy development and use.
Taken together, Gallup’s polling shows that there is a very compelling pro-growth argument for environmental advocates to make that is centered on developing clean energy like wind and solar. Framing that puts the environment and economy in conflict plays more into the hands of the environmental movement’s opponents, who are eager to use labels like “de-growth” and socialism to undermine support for environmental policies.
The idea that the economy and environment are at odds is also contributing to unprecedented levels of political polarization on environmental issues, as Gallup’s article details:
“Though Democrats and Republicans have long come down on different sides when considering the tradeoffs between economic growth and environmental protection, the gap between the parties has never been larger. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats, compared with 20% of Republicans, now believe environmental protection should be given the higher priority.
From 1984 to 1991, the parties expressed similar views on this matter, but by 1995 a divide became evident, which has since gradually expanded. At least half of Democrats have favored the environment over economic growth in all years of Gallup’s trend except during the economically challenged years of 2010 and 2011. Meanwhile, majorities of Republicans typically prioritized the environment from 1984 through 2000, but Republicans have not returned to that level since falling to 47% in 2001.”
Gallup – Most Americans would consider purchasing an electric vehicle, though there are large differences in interest by partisanship (Article)
Gallup also finds deep political polarization around electric vehicles, as interest in purchasing an electric vehicle correlates more with partisanship than any other social or demographic factor.
The majority of Americans would consider purchasing an electric vehicle (59%), including 4% who already own one, 12% who are “seriously considering” purchasing one, and 43% who “might consider” an electric vehicle. Roughly two in five Americans (41%) say they definitively “would not buy” an electric vehicle.
More than four in five Democrats (82%) and six in ten independents (62%) would at least consider an electric vehicle, though this includes a lot of people in the squishy category who “might consider” an electric vehicle (54% of Democrats and 47% of independents). Meanwhile, the majority of Republicans (71%) say that they “would not buy” an electric vehicle.
EV interest is also linked with other demographic variables, though not to the same extent as partisanship. College graduates are twice as likely (23%) to say that they own or are “seriously considering” an electric vehicle than those without college degrees (11%). Additionally, Americans with household incomes of $100,000 or more (23%) are considerably more likely to own or be seriously considering an EV than those with incomes between $40,000 and $10,0000 (13%) or those with household incomes under $40,000 (11%).
[MI] Data for Progress – Voters overwhelmingly support major provisions of the MI Healthy Climate Plan and the transition to a fully clean electricity grid (Article, Topline)
In a poll on the state’s climate and energy policy and recent problems with power outages, Data for Progress (in conjunction with Evergeen Action, the Michigan League of Conservation Voters, Souldarity, and Michigan United) finds that Michigan voters widely support state-level action to combat climate change.
The plurality of Michigan voters (38%) say that the state legislature is doing too little to combat climate change, while 23% say that state lawmakers are doing the right amount on the issue and just 16% say that the state legislature is doing “too much” on climate.
The clear majority of Michigan voters support the state moving to a 100% clean energy electricity grid by 2035 (61% support / 33% oppose), and key policy goals of the state government’s MI Healthy Climate Plan attract broad support – especially measures to protect land and water and to invest in clean energy, energy efficiency, and grid infrastructure:
- 89% support protecting Michigan’s land and water resources
- 87% support improving existing power grid infrastructure to better withstand extreme weather events
- 80% support increasing investments for homes and businesses to improve their energy efficiency and lower energy bills
- 73% support increasing the share of electricity that is produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power
- 73% support increasing access to clean transportation options, including public transit
- 60% support building infrastructure to support electric vehicles, such as chargers
- 52% support phasing out Michigan’s remaining coal-fired power plants
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