Environmental Polling Roundup - August 25, 2023

EPC Resource Library / Weekly Roundups

Environmental Polling Roundup – August 25, 2023

David Gold

August 25th, 2023

HEADLINES

Climate Power + Data for Progress – Voters overwhelmingly want to protect the climate, clean energy, and environmental justice policies that conservative groups’ “Project 2025” plan calls to cut [Article, Crosstabs]

Washington Post + UMD – Nearly three-quarters of Americans say that they have been affected by “extremely hot days” in recent years; Americans are most likely to say that climate change is a factor in hot and dry weather events like extreme heat, droughts, and wildfires [Article, Topline]

We Make the Future – Americans tend to agree that communities of color bear too many of the impacts of climate change, but aren’t sure why this is the case; messaging about climate justice is most effective when it identifies clear villains such as fossil fuel corporations and their CEOs [Full Deck, Messaging Guide, Focus Group Memo]

[West] Center for Western Priorities – Western voters are deeply concerned about corporate interests harming Western lands and support a range of conservation solutions, including creating and protecting national monuments and prioritizing renewable energy over fossil fuels [Website, Deck, Topline]

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Narratives about climate justice are most persuasive when they identify clear villains and positive goals. These are some of the key findings from a recent multi-phase research project led by We Make the Future. In a national survey, they find that voters generally recognize that communities of color bear too much of the impact of climate change but aren’t sure who to blame for this disparity. Accordingly, messaging that names clear villains – including fossil fuel companies and their CEOs – tends to be more persuasive. Additionally, this research finds that focusing on positive, shared goals like clean air and water helps to increase the resonance of messaging on climate justice.
To counter “Project 2025,” advocates’ messaging should focus on maintaining and protecting progress that we’ve achieved – including protections for public lands and the benefits of the clean energy boom. Climate Power and Data for Progress find that voters widely reject the anti-environmental policies in conservative groups’ “Project 2025” plan for the next presidential administration. Their polling finds that voters particularly want to maintain protections in place for national parks and monuments, prioritize environmental justice and public health in disadvantaged communities, and protect clean energy investments that are saving consumers money and producing a boom in manufacturing jobs.
Hot and dry extreme weather events continue to be the most salient consequences of climate change. A recent Washington Post/UMD poll finds that Americans are much more likely to report experience with extreme heat than other types of extreme weather. Additionally, they find that hot, dry weather events such as extreme heat, droughts, and wildfires have the most intuitive connections to climate change and also draw relatively more concern than other types of climate-fueled weather events.

GOOD DATA POINTS TO HIGHLIGHT

[Climate Change] 74% of Americans agree that human activity is causing the climate to change, including the majority of Republicans [Washington Post/UMD]
[Project 2025 / Conservation] 75% of voters say that the next president should keep current protections in place for national parks and monuments, preserving these and other public lands from oil and gas drilling [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
[Project 2025 / Justice] 69% of voters say that the next president should prioritize environmental justice and take action to clean up pollution and improve public health in disadvantaged communities [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
[Project 2025 / Clean Energy] 66% of voters say that the next president should protect the consumer tax credits and instant rebates that were included in the recently passed clean energy plan and which can lower energy costs for families by $1,800 [Climate Power + Data for Progress]
[Issue Priority] More Americans name climate change and the environment as the single “most important issue” to them than any other issue aside from inflation/prices [The Economist + YouGov]
[Western States] 87% of Western voters say that it’s important to them that a candidate supports conservation of public lands when deciding who to vote for in an election [Center for Western Priorities]
[Western States] 74% of Western voters say that they would feel more favorably about President Biden and his administration if they did more to focus efforts to protect and conserve public lands, parks, wildlife, and monuments [Center for Western Priorities]
[Western States] 71% of Western voters say that they are more likely to vote for someone who prioritizes protecting public lands from being taken over by private developers and oil and mining corporations [Center for Western Priorities]
[Western States] 70% of Western voters say that the government should do more to create and protect national monuments on public land that has significant historical, scenic, or scientific value for the future [Center for Western Priorities]

FULL ROUNDUP

After the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups rolled out their “Project 2025” presidential transition plan, Climate Power and Data for Progress tested how voters feel about the kinds of climate and clean energy rollbacks that are included in the plan.

The poll finds overwhelming resistance to the kinds of cuts and rollbacks that “Project 2025” calls for, as voters would much rather see the next president maintain and protect recent progress on climate and environmental policies than reverse course.

Specifically, majorities of voters say that the next president should:

Keep current protections in place for national parks and monuments, preserving these and other public lands from oil and gas drilling (75%)
Prioritize environmental justice and take action to clean up pollution and improve public health in disadvantaged communities (69%)
Protect the consumer tax credits and instant rebates that can lower energy costs for families by $1,800 that were included in the recently passed clean energy plan (66%)
Defend the Environmental Protection Agency and uphold its ability to enforce existing rules and offer essential environmental and public health protections (61%)
Protect the tax credits and subsidies for clean energy companies that were included in the recently passed clean energy plan (59%)
Strengthen existing Environmental Protection Agency standards on vehicle carbon pollution (59%)
Strengthen regulations on fossil fuel-fired power plants in order to further reduce carbon pollution (58%)
Remain in the Paris Climate Agreement (55%)

As you can see above, there is particularly clear consensus that the next president should protect public lands like national parks and monuments from oil and gas drilling, prioritize environmental justice and public health in disadvantaged communities, and protect tax credits and rebates that can lower energy costs for families.

The poll also finds that voters would narrowly prefer that the next president “minimize the amount of new oil and gas drilling approved in favor of expanding clean energy” (47%) rather than “approve more new oil and gas drilling in the United States without expanding clean energy” (44%).

Climate Power and Data for Progress additionally find that voters are especially alarmed by Project 2025’s proposals to eliminate plans to combat climate change and extreme weather and to end tax credits and other programs that support clean energy.

Large majorities say that they would be concerned if the next president took the following actions:

Ending tax credits and other programs to support clean energy, which would result in the loss of hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. (75% concerned, including 35% who are “very concerned”)
Eliminating plans to combat climate and extreme weather, which would result in increased U.S. carbon pollution and more rapid climate change (70% concerned, 40% “very concerned”)
Prohibiting the use of scientific determinations to drive regulatory, enforcement, and legal decisions in the Environmental Protection Agency and across the federal government (70% concerned, 29% “very concerned”)
Eliminating the Department of Energy’s ability to grant new loans to promising clean energy technologies, in order to prioritize the continued use of fossil fuels (67% concerned, 30% “very concerned”)

Consistent with other polling we’ve seen this summer, the latest Washington Post/UMD poll release finds that Americans widely recognize that extreme weather is impacting their communities – especially extreme heat – but are divided along political lines over the severity of recent weather events and their links to climate change.

The poll finds an encouraging level of bipartisan agreement about the human causes of climate change: nearly three-quarters agree that human activity is causing the climate to change (74%), including majorities of both Democrats (93%) and Republicans (55%).

However, Americans are more divided by partisanship over the impacts of climate change. Most Americans agree that climate change is affecting the area where they live at least a moderate amount (54%), including the large majority of Democrats (78%) but only 30% of Republicans. Additionally, while most Americans agree that extreme weather events are becoming more severe (62%), Democrats are much more likely to recognize the increasing severity of extreme weather (87%) than Republicans (37%).

When it comes to specific types of extreme weather, Americans report more direct experience with extreme heat than any other extreme weather event. Nearly three-quarters (74%) say that their area has been affected by “extremely hot days” in the past five years, while fewer than half say that their area has been impacted by other extreme weather events such as droughts and water shortages (45%), wildfires or wildfire smoke (45%), severe storms or hurricanes (43%), and flooding (40%).

While Americans who have experienced extreme weather events generally agree that climate change was a factor, the strength of the connection varies by the type of event. Americans tend to perceive the most direct links between climate change and extreme weather events that are hot or dry – such as extreme heat, droughts, and wildfires.

Among Americans who experienced each of these types of extreme weather, here are the percentages who say that climate change was a “major factor”:

Extremely hot days – 63%
Droughts and water shortages – 63%
Wildfires – 58%
Severe storms, including hurricanes – 58%
Flooding – 50%

Across each type of extreme weather event, Democrats are also much more likely to say that climate change was a “major factor” (ranging from 67% for flooding up to 85% for extremely hot days) than Republicans (ranging from 27% for flooding up to 35% for extremely hot days).

The poll also finds that Americans worry more about hot and dry weather events as consequences of climate change than other types of extreme weather. Here are the percentages of Americans who say that they are “very” or “extremely” concerned about each of these events as possible impacts of climate change:

Extremely hot days – 58%
Droughts and water shortages – 58%
Wildfires – 58%
Severe storms, including hurricanes – 53%
Flooding – 50%

Note that we analyzed previously released results from this poll in another Weekly Roundup earlier this month.

We Make the Future recently completed a multi-phase research project, including a national survey as well as focus groups with key audiences, to determine how to mobilize and persuade people in support of climate justice.

As a baseline, most Americans agree that “communities of color are often disproportionately impacted by climate disasters, experiencing higher rates of pollution and negative health outcomes.” The majority of Americans agree with this statement (56%), while 22% disagree.

However, Americans are divided about why communities of color are disproportionately impacted by climate change. The majority agree that “communities of color often live in areas targeted by corporate polluters because they know they can get away with it and politicians will not block them or force them to face consequences” (54%). A sizable minority, however, say that the disproportionate impact of climate change in communities of color is more because “communities of color often lack resources and live in more dangerous areas because they do not prioritize changing their own circumstances through hard work and initiative” (46%).

These results clearly point to a need to better educate the public about the root causes of climate injustice. The messaging guidance that We Make the Future released with the research results provides recommendations for explaining the problem of climate injustice and offering solutions. In general, they find that messaging about climate justice is more powerful when it identifies clear villains (such as fossil fuel corporations and their CEOs) and provides people with a positive vision to aspire to.

The messaging guidance additionally includes recommendations for building support behind publicly owned utilities and climate solutions that prioritize people of color, as well as for driving advocacy in the wake of climate disasters.

Pulling from their Messaging Guide document, with emphasis added in bold:

“General

Frame the issues and impacts of the climate crisis in terms of lived experience (e.g. air we breathe, water we drink, energy that powers our homes) and creation of good as opposed to removal of something bad or abstract ideas (e.g. environmental hazards, parts per million, long-term effects of sea level rise, degrees Celsius).

Use the active voice, naming culprits and providing an origin story for the climate crisis. When we are not explicit about who is at fault, we leave our audiences vulnerable to pinning the blame for climate injustices on the communities themselves who are most impacted by the crisis. When people do NOT hear about clear, human/corporate intent behind problems, they struggle to see how deliberately constructed policy shifts could be the solution.

Lead with the experience and solutions that communities of color bring to addressing climate change rather than the harms that disproportionately impact them. The reverse could result in your audience victim blaming. In contrast, making people aware of the ways communities of color are crafting and implementing innovative solutions and prevention measures challenges existing harmful stereotypes and thus can help move people toward our worldview.

Making the case for publicly owned utilities

Focus on how publicly owned utilities can lower costs, empower the community, and provide more reliable energy because they reinvest in the grid instead of paying corporate CEO bonuses. Do not dive into the details of governing boards or utility structures.

Share positive stories of publicly owned utilities delivering results for communities.

Call out utility corporations and their greed. Remind people that these are wealthy corporations putting profits over people, planet, and the quality of service they provide.

Don’t base your message in comparisons to better known, existing public goods like schools or libraries – people view utilities as different from these other services.

Building support for solutions prioritizing people of color

Provide an origin story for unequal impacts while clearly assigning blame. Effective culprits are corporate CEOs, fossil fuel corporations, and the wealthy few who profit off polluting our communities. Avoid passive phrasing like, “Black communities are exposed to environmental health risks,” or “Communities of color are more impacted by climate change.”

Give examples of what solutions that prioritize communities of color look like (e.g. Indigenous communities having the freedom to continue leading ecosystem protection, harsher penalties for corporations). Avoid activist-speak like “disproportionately impacted.”

Link action on the climate crisis to past victories and power of collective action (e.g. “the many can defeat the money”).

Driving advocacy after a climate disaster

Combine calls to action, such as holding fossil fuel corporations accountable in the aftermath of these events, with a vision for the better future we will create.

Make it clear who is at fault for the disasters that we face – the wealthy corporations, Big Oil, fossil fuel CEOs, and the politicians they pay for.

Give people political actions to take, like contacting elected officials, attending a rally, or taking action against a corporation, or they will default to only engaging in direct aid to people impacted by the disaster.”

[West] Center for Western Priorities – Western voters are deeply concerned about corporate interests harming Western lands and support a range of conservation solutions, including creating and protecting national monuments and doing more to regulate oil and gas operations on public lands [Website, Deck, Topline]

The latest edition of the Center for Western Priorities’ long-running “Winning the West” poll surveyed voters in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada and finds once again that voters in Western states feel strongly about protecting Western lands from corporate interests like oil and gas companies.

While the protection of public lands and waters tends to be a winning issue across the country, polls consistently show that conservation priorities have particular resonance in Western states.

The Center for Western Priorities finds that Western voters are deeply concerned about threats to lands and natural areas, including oil and mining and the related consequences of climate change:

87% are concerned about losing open spaces, natural areas, wildlife habitat, and America’s most beautiful landscapes (including 54% who are “very concerned”)
87% are concerned about corporations and developers harming the lands and waters we use for outdoor recreation, hunting, and fishing (including 52% who are “very concerned”)
86% are concerned about oil and mining companies, huge foreign-owned corporations, and developers making record profits off America’s land, but not paying their fair share for the damage they do to it (including 54% who are “very concerned”)
78% are concerned about the effects of a changing climate, like floods, droughts, and wildfires, on our public lands (including 51% who are “very concerned”)

In light of these threats, Western voters overwhelmingly say that they want more government action to protect lands, parks, and monuments. Large majorities say that the government should be doing more to address each of the following priorities:

Addressing overcrowding and better maintaining national parks, public lands, and national monuments (73% say the government should be doing more)
Creating and protecting national monuments on public land that has significant historical, scenic, or scientific value for the future (70%)
Regulating oil, gas, and mining corporations that operate on federal lands (66%)
Protecting public access for hunting, fishing, and outdoor recreation (66%)

Bipartisan majorities also express support for the Bureau of Land Management’s proposed conservation rule and a proposal to update the Mining Act after learning basic information about these policies:

84% say that it’s important to update and modernize the General Mining Act of 1872 to strengthen environmental safeguards and require companies to pay taxpayers a royalty for mining on public lands – including 89% of Democrats, 86% of independents, and 76% of Republicans
67% support the Bureau of Land Management’s recently proposed rule to instruct land managers to treat land restoration and conservation as a use of the land, equal to other uses such as mining, oil drilling, and grazing – including 76% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 59% of Republicans

Additionally, the Center for Western Priorities finds that Western voters are prepared to reward President Biden and other elected officials who heed Western voters’ concerns about conservation.

Nearly three-quarters of Western voters (74%) say that they would feel more favorably about President Biden and his administration if they did more to focus efforts to protect and conserve public lands, parks, wildlife, and national monuments – including majorities of Democrats (93%), independents (76%), and Republicans (53%).

Additionally, two-thirds (67%) support President Biden using executive authority to designate land or water as a national monument if it had unique cultural, historical, or natural significance.

And when considering who to vote for in an election, 87% of Western voters say that it’s important that a candidate supports conservation of public lands – including 40% who say that this is “very important” to them.

Majorities of Western voters further say that they are more likely to vote for someone who takes particular pro-conservation stances:

71% are more likely to support someone who prioritizes protecting public lands from being taken over by private developers and oil and mining corporations
71% are more likely to support someone who prioritizes protecting and investing in national parks and monuments for the public
63% are more likely to support someone who supports creating a new national monument in their state to project the open spaces and natural resources and preserve the landscape for future generations
56% are more likely to support someone who supports increased access and investments to meet demand for hunting, fishing, hiking, and other recreation on public lands and parks

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